Royals Review Roundtable: The 2025 season

Time to figure out which of the RR writers has the juice!

Last year, the Royals went to the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade. This year, they have an opportunity to advance past the Division Round for the first time in a decade. The offseason wasn’t nearly as busy as the last one, but the Royals still accomplished all of their goals with the same failing as before, in need of a power outfield bat the Royals had to settle for the bargain bin, this time adding Mark Canha instead of Hunter Renfroe. But hey, last offseason, they didn’t have Jac Caglianone. So at least there’s that!

In honor and celebration of the new season and new opportunities, we took up an old tradition to bring to you the predictions and prognostications of our veteran writing team.

(If you’re curious about how we did last season, you can still see some of our wildly off-base predictions here.)

All in all, how would you grade the Royals' offseason? Did they do enough?

Max Rieper I give them a solid B, although perhaps that is on a bit of a curve since all non-Dodgers teams were very quiet this winter. The Royals achieved their main objective, getting a leadoff hitter. I think Jonathan India will have a HUGE impact on this lineup, and could even serve as an example for other hitters how to be more patient (looking at you, Maikel Garcia). I know fans are disappointed they didn’t upgrade the outfield, but I like that they didn’t force a bad move out of desperation, and the Mark Canha acquisition was a sneaky good move. They were also smart to pivot and use the money to sign Carlos Estevez - if you’re not going to improve run production, you can improve your run prevention.

Kevin Ruprecht I’d give them roughly a B. Getting an on-base table-setter for BWJ was a top priority, and they traded from a position of strength to do so. I’d have liked more improvement in the outfield though. Mark Canha is a guy I would have targeted, but they could have had him without a trade if they acted on the outfield a bit earlier.

Greg Walker I’d give them a B-. Trading two years of Brady Singer for two years of Jonathan India and a flier in Joey Weimer is a good bit of business that addressed a clear need for an on-base guy at the top of the lineup. Carlos Estévez is a solid pickup for the back of the bullpen. I still wish they had picked up another outfield bat, however, as the lineup still feels light to me.

Matthew LaMar I’d give the Royals a B+. While they didn’t get their big outfield bat, it wasn’t for a lack of trying; they remained disciplined and didn’t overextend financially. When the bat didn’t materialize, they used some of the money set aside for said bat to shore up the bullpen. They miss out on an “A” because they did miss out on adding a bat because I think they made some head scratcher moves (IE, Mark Canha for $1.4 million when Alex Verdugo signed elsewhere for $1.5 million).

RoyalTreatment Bringing back Wacha makes sense and trading from depth to get Jonathan India helps the lineup a lot, so I would give them a B-. I really think they wanted someone to take left field out of India, Massey, Garcia, one of the minor leaguers, but bringing in Mark Canha late says to me that no one has stepped up enough, so they still needed another solid bat to get the offseason to a true win. I think that is the boring answer, but also the truth.

Jeremy “Hokius” Greco A C+ I guess? Maybe a B-. It was always going to be difficult to follow up the really exciting 2023-2024 offseason, but I’m a bit disappointed that they failed to address a huge need in adding a big-threat, outfield bat. That said, I also feel like they’re still in a good position to compete for the division. I think they missed an opportunity to be clear favorites by getting their hands on an Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, or someone under contract to another team. I know a lot of people will praise them for making the effort without going over the deep end. Every once in a while, I’d like to see a team be a little reckless in search of wins, though. I also don’t think a reliever was necessarily the right direction to pivot but if Jac Caglianone has extensive, successful playing time in the Royals’ outfield this year, we won’t even remember we were ever concerned.

How do you see the Royals lining up their defense? Will we see a lot of Jonathan India, Michael Massey, and Maikel Garcia in the outfield?

Max Rieper India seemed pretty rough in the outfield, my guess is he is at 2B and DH most of the time. It seems like Garcia took to the outfield the best, but I’m not sure we’ll see him a ton out there. My guess is they will let MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe sink or swim out there (hey, did you see MJ changed his swing?), with Canha filling for MJ against tough lefties. Then they’ll re-evaluate mid-season and look for a trade opportunity. Fingers crossed!

Kevin Ruprecht I think we’ll see some of those guys in the outfield, but maybe not a lot? The Royals as an organization tend to value defense in the outfield very highly.

Matthew LaMar I don’t think we’ll be seeing a notable amount of outfield time from any of them. A lot of that is because I expect Michael Massey to miss a quarter of the season or so based on his recent history; Massey has only averaged 121 games a year since 2021, and players tend not to get healthier as they age (especially for players with back problems). Two of those three are going to be playing third base and second base everyday, and with off days, injuries, and pitching matchups I just don’t think the outfield is going to play into it.

RoyalTreatment Based on my last answer, my guess is not a ton. I think of the three, Garcia is the most likely to be out there a decent amount since I don’t think they have a second CF option without him. Maybe I’ll be surprised and Joey Wiemer will break camp with the team, but I have not gotten that feeling so far this spring.

Greg Walker I see there being plenty of moving parts in this lineup, but I think India is the only one of those three guys that will see substantial time in the outfield. I think he also gets DH at-bats. Massey will probably be the nominal second baseman with Garcia playing third. I’m curious how much leash MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe get if they don’t hit, but I imagine they will get most of the corner outfield playing time early on.

Jeremy “Hokius” Greco Anyone who tells you they definitively know the answer to this question is out of their minds. My bet right now is we mostly see Massey at second, we see plenty of India at DH and 3B with a little 2B, and we see plenty of Garcia at 3B and CF against lefties. The addition of Canha removes a lot of the available outfield innings - assuming Vinnie isn’t out for long with his leg injury - so it doesn’t make a lot of sense to put India or Massey out there under most circumstances. Everything I’ve heard and seen is that Garcia in center works, but if he hits at all, they’ll be better off with him at third and India splitting 2B/DH duties with Massey, who figures to need plenty of time off the field.

Who do you worry about regressing the most?

Kevin Ruprecht It’s not so much a “who” as it is a “what”. It’s the starting rotation as a unit. They had remarkable health in 2024...they used only 9 starters, and 4 of those guys combined for 43 2/3 innings.

Greg Walker This isn’t regression in the normal sense, but I worry how the starting pitching will hold up. The Royals got 151 starts out of their top five pitchers last season. That just doesn’t happen in the modern game. Now they’re replacing Brady Singer with Michael Lorenzen, which I think is a downgrade, and Kris Bubic is in for Alec Marsh, which could be an upgrade. Maybe they get four guys that qualify for the ERA title with a mark under four again, but I think it’s unlikely.

Matthew LaMar The starting rotation as a whole. Last year they had three starters who had 32 or 33 starts and two others who had at least 25 starts. I hope for similar health but fear that we won’t get it. Specifically, I think I’m most concerned with Michael Wacha. His ERA has been significantly lower than his xFIP for the last three years, and all it would take is for some poor home run luck for him to turn from a very good pitcher into just an ok one.

RoyalTreatment For me, it’s Salvador Perez. Just based on age and how much that lineup needs all of the productive bats to be productive. Be it injury or this is the year his bat just can’t catch up to everything anymore, I am concerned that the offense can’t sustain Perez hitting .235/.295/.400 and I could see that happening.

Max Rieper I don’t want to be accused of being a hater, but players don’t typically put up the numbers Bobby Witt Jr. did on a regular basis. He has Hall of Fame talent, but even George Brett had some seasons where he was just “really good” and not “OMG amazing”. If Bobby comes back down to earth even a little bit, that could have a pretty big impact on the offense.

Jeremy “Hokius” Greco I think it’s got to be Salvador Perez. But I’ve also been worrying about him for years and he just put up one of his best seasons this decade, so what do I know?

Who could be a sneaky underrated X-factor to help the Royals?

RoyalTreatment I’m hoping it is the trade deadline. This team has enough pitching to stay in it even with a top-heavy offense. They will hopefully be aggressive in acquiring more help by May or June. Honestly, the earlier the better unless they start off really slow and ruin the whole thing.

Max Rieper Mark Canha. He gets on base, he gives them another option at first if Vinnie is hurt or has to sit against a tough lefty, and he has VETERAN PRESENCE. He’s not a huge impact player, but having good players rather than bad players on your bench (like last season) is a big plus for a contender.

Matthew LaMar Daniel Lynch IV fits “underrated X-factor” pretty well. Kris Bubic has established himself as a really good pitcher when healthy over the last two years, but Lynch has sort of flown under the radar. He was really solid out of the pen, and I think he could carve out a load-bearing role in the bullpen or be the type of starting pitching depth that the Royals have missed.

Kevin Ruprecht I’m desperately hoping for MJ Melendez, Gavin Cross, or even Jac Caglianone to be this guy.

Greg Walker I know most Royals fans aren’t thrilled about Renfroe being under contract for another year, and it’s entirely possible that he’s washed, but it was not long ago that he posted a 124 wRC+ and hit 29 homers in 125 games. He dealt with some injuries last year and, assuming he’s healthy now, maybe he can turn back the clock. Spring Training stats don’t matter, but it’s not a bad thing that he’s raked in Surprise.

Jeremy “Hokius” Greco Can I say Jac Caglianone? Second choice is Gavin Cross. Canha is more a bandaid than a permanent solution for the outfield and I don’t buy into Melendez and Renfroe, so the Royals are going to need outfield help. Those are the two most likely sources.

What will be key for the Royals to win this year?

Kevin Ruprecht They have to maintain health in their stars. Cole Ragans and BWJ and Seth Lugo simply cannot miss time.

Greg Walker The lineup around Bobby Witt Jr. needs to step up. Kansas City was eliminated from the postseason last year because Witt struggled and there was nobody else to pick up the slack. The best version of this team has Vinnie Pasquantino producing like he did in his rookie season, Salvador Perez staving off father time for another year, and Garcia and Melendez finally turning the corner offensively.

RoyalTreatment Solid run prevention. That is starting pitching being at least close to last year’s level, plus a better bullpen, and a pretty good defense though the outfield is questionable. Stay in games and consistently give yourself a chance to win.

Max Rieper Health. The Royals were pretty healthy last year, and we saw what happened when they missed Vinnie Pasquantino for a month. If they are without him or Salvy or god forbid, Bobby, the lineup suddenly looks very thin. The Royals have done a good job building starting pitching depth, but the bullpen is still a bit top heavy and it would only take 1-2 key injuries to make it a liability.

Matthew LaMar Somebody needs to step up behind Witt on the hitting side of the equation. Preferably multiple someones. Like, we know Witt will be good. We know the pitching staff will be good. I think if Jonathan India can get on base at a .350 or .360 clip in the leadoff spot and Vinnie Pasquantino can turn in a 130 wRC+ season, the offense will look totally different.

Jeremy “Hokius” Greco Health. They have precious little depth at starting pitcher to begin the year with Kyle Wright and Alec Marsh starting the season on the injured list and basically no answers if Bobby or Vinnie miss more than a couple of weeks. They have a lot of relievers who might step in if there are injuries to guys in the bullpen, but no definite answers.

Give us your predictions - how many wins and how far do the Royals go this year?

Matthew LaMar The Royals are, on aggregate, a very similar team as last year, but with more exposure to injury and downside. 85 wins and just barely missing the playoffs.

Max Rieper I have them at 90 wins and division champs. I like that they didn’t rest on their laurels and went out and improved the team. The upgrades in the pen should overcome regression by the rotation and the pitching staff should continue to be among the league’s best. I think we’ll see a nice rivalry between the Royals and Tigers like we saw in 2014, but ultimately KC comes out on top. Unfortunately, I think there’s a gulf between the Royals and top tier teams, which is why I see them falling in the ALDS again, wondering how to take this team to the next level.

RoyalTreatment I am optimistic that they will hang around and add to the team via trade. I also think that Noah Cameron and Jac Caglianone, maybe a couple of others, could be important ways to strengthen themselves down the stretch. I am probably overly optimistic, but I think they find a way to 89 wins and the Central win. Playoffs are pretty open in the AL this year, so maybe that could equal an ALDS bid.

Greg Walker I am perpetually low on this team and will be happy to be proven wrong. I’m predicting 79 wins this season — so many things had to go right for this team to win 86 last year and I’m not convinced this roster is that much better than it was a year ago today. Leave a comment if you have a good recipe for crow.

Kevin Ruprecht 85-ish wins, backend playoff spot like 2024. I think they spend most of the season, again, figuring out who can fill what roles and gel toward the end of the season. I’m gonna be optimistic and say ALCS.

Jeremy “Hokius” Greco The Royals didn’t drastically improve, but the Twins and Guardians each got worse, and while the Royals and Tigers are on par, the Royals seemed to have their number last year. Also, outside the Mets and Dodgers, which other teams did improve? For those reasons, I believe KC will have 90 wins, take their second division crown since the advent of three division leagues, and make it all the way to the World Series, where the Dodgers will unceremoniously sweep them out on their collective behinds.