Guardians’ Spring Training Takeaways: To Worry or Not To Worry
That is the question
We have eight spring Training games left for the Guardians before they open the season against Kansas City, time to find some takeaways. What should we worry about, and what should we not worry about as the 162-game slate opens?
To Worry: Triston McKenzie’s Poor Performance
It is so very important not to get wrapped up in spring training results, but to look instead at the underlying numbers a given player is flashing. In this instance, McKenzie’s velocity on his fastball sitting around 94 mph seems amazing, until you look at his curveball. He can’t locate it for strikes. The curveball shape looks fine by the numbers, but consistently, he has gotten around 18% of the curves he has thrown in the zone, so hitters are just sitting on his fastball. The reason this is of particular concern is because it has been years since we have seen McKenzie consistently throw his curveball for strikes and it needs to be his whiff pitch. If hitters don’t have to worry about the curve, they are going to sit on his fastball all day. No matter how well he throws the heater, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Not to Worry: Luis Ortiz’s Poor Performance
Ortiz has had a rough spring, getting touched up quite a bit in his starts. However, he has had a lot of bad batted ball luck, and he is working on some adjustments the Guardians have asked him to make to his delivery and pitch mix. This has undoubtedly led to different game-calling and execution than what we will see during the season. I expect Ortiz to have a bumpy April but nothing I’ve seen indicates to me that he won’t eventually settle into a fine mid-rotation role here.
To Worry: Gabriel Arias’s Groundball and Whiff Rates
Arias is still running a 50% groundball rate and a 20% swinging strike rate. He also has repeatedly popped up on the chart of highest exit velocities each day he’s played and looked good on defense. Because I’ve been watching Arias in the big leagues and Columbus fail to overcome both his lack of lift and lack of contact issues, I do not believe he will be able to do so in the season ahead. I’m ready for Arias and the team to prove me wrong as he seems destined to be anointed the Opening Day second baseman, but I find it more likely I’ll be counting down the days until the next player discussed here debuts...
Not to Worry: Juan Brito’s Strikeout Rate
Brito has very obviously been pressing this Spring, with the knowledge that he had a shot at getting the starting second baseman job with a great camp. He has a 25% strikeout rate and an 18.8% swinging strike rate (unheard of for him), with a walk rate only around 6%. I am reading absolutely nothing into this aside from natural adjustments to seeing more top of the line pitchers and the pressure of trying to win a job. I expect Brito to open in Columbus and then debut somewhere toward the end of May. He may then get the Manzardo re-demotion eventually, but I expect him to be an above average major league hitter by September, and it’s great news that he’s looked more than adequate defensively at second base this Spring.
To Worry: Will Brennan’s Walk Rate
Brennan has a 3% walk rate in the Spring. Now, most major leaguers are not playing to take walks in Spring Training (see my comments on Noel below), but this walk rate is indicative of the kind of hitter Brennan is without other skills to compensate for it. Until I see otherwise, I expect pitchers to see if Brennan will expand the zone early in counts and then, as necessary, challenge him with fastballs in and up in the zone late. I’ve yet to see any indication that Brennan can compensate for this by laying off pitches outside the zone or gearing up for the heat. Again, I hope he can prove me wrong as he seems set to be the strongside platoon in right field to open the year.
Not to Worry: Jhonkensy Noel’s Strikeout Rate
Noel has yet to take one walk in Spring Training and is running a 41% strikeout rate. I don’t care. Every day, he hits a ball a million miles an hour. To be honest, if Noel had taken a walk, I’d probably be more concerned than I am seeing a fat zero in the BB categories. His philosophy this Spring has clearly been “No BB’s (walks), All BB’s (bullets)” and I’m hear for it. If the season opens and Noel can reduce his swinging at even 7% of the sliders outside the zone, he’s going to hit enough mammoth flies to compensate for a strikeout rate north of 33% and I’m still very optimistic that he can do that. Unlike Arias, Big Christmas’s insane exit velos are accompanied by lift and that makes ALL the different in the world.
To Worry: Paul Sewald’s Bad Spring
Sewald has yet to get a groundball this spring and his swinging strike rate is down around 10%, lower than last year’s career low of 11%. I am sorry, Sewald looks exactly like the pitcher I saw last season who looked washed. It’s possible he is simply heating up, but I am concerned that he will be a home run machine this season.
Not to Worry: The Guardians’ Bullpen’s Spring Training Struggles
Almost everyone in the Guardians’ pen has had a rough outing or two. I remain supremely unconcerned that they will have trouble figuring out how to assemble an effective relief corps from this group. It’s important to note that they are unlikely to be OTHERWORLDLY as they were in their dominance last season, but I’m still utterly assured they will be good.
To Worry: Carlos Santana vs. RHP
I don’t see any sign of Carlos Santana returning to more of the 110-120 wRC+ guy against RHP he used to be. And, that leaves our team very vulnerable against 75-80% of MLB pitchers, especially in the middle of our order.
Not to Worry: Carlos Santana’s Slow Start
Santana has had a slow start and a bad spring. In other news, water is wet and the Pope is Catholic. Santana will get going in mid-May, especially against LHP, but he’s much better served to be a #6 hitter and late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-hitter against LHP than the every day #3 hitter he seems set to be currently. Get well soon, David Fry.
To Worry: Daniel Schneemann’s Past Strikeout Rate
I am a confirmed doubter of Schneemann’s place on a major league roster and so I am unsurprised to see him with a 171 wRC+ this spring while looking solid all over the field, defensively. It’s impossible not to root for the Snowman, so please don’t misread my doubt: I hope he makes me look like an idiot. But, as I watch his plate appearances, he appears to still have too much whiff and chase in his profile to get to his walk rate and pop consistently. May he prove me wrong and continue to accumulate enough walks and hard-hits to make him a valuable left-handed bench bat who can play everywhere.
Not to Worry: Tyler Freeman’s Past Struggles
Freeman’s stats and underlying performances for Spring Training look exactly like what I’d like to see. Walk rate around 9%, on-base percentage around .400, 40% fly-ball rate, and consistently getting up to over 100 mph on exit velos a 1-2 times a game. I am ready to believe in Freeman again and I hope the team finds a way to give him consistent lineup chances for these first two months, especially, so they can make a good determination on what he can be as a major leaguer as guys like Brito, Chase DeLauter, George Valera, and others hopefully get hot/healthy.
To Worry: Chase DeLauter and George Valera’s Injuries
Given the amount of injuries both players have had, I don’t see how anyone can count on either ever being healthy enough to be a consistent major league contributor. No one will be rooting harder for them to prove us all wrong than I will, but I hope the team gives Micah Pries, CJ Kayfus and Johnathan Rodriguez the opportunity to earn themselves some time in right field this season if Brennan, Noel, Schneemann and Freeman struggle to contribute in the AB’s they each seem set to receive there.
Not to Worry: Shane Bieber, David Fry and Trevor Stephan’s Injuries
The work ethic and rumors out of camp make me feel positive we will see all three of these players on the major league roster by June. So, the key for the Guardians is to at least hang around .500 through Memorial Day and hopefully take off from there. Anything more than .500 by June 1st will be an immense success, in my opinion. Hold on, boys, the cavalry is coming.
Finally, a reminder: as I said before Spring Training opens, if the Guardians can somehow manage to leave Goodyear without any major injuries, it has been a wildly successful camp. That’s the best way to judge Spring Training, so don’t get too wrapped up in anything else.