Why the Royals could have one of the most underrated bullpens in baseball

The Royals made significant changes in their bullpen over the last year.

Over the last year, the Royals have put significant stock in their bullpen and this season, they hope to reap the benefits of their work. As we head into 2025, we get a look at both some new faces, and some familiar ones who are getting healthy and we hope to see bounce back in 2025.

The Royals bullpen struggled to start the season and had one of the worst bullpens in baseball throughout the first two months of the season. Through May they collectively had a 4.42 ERA with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball with numerous blown saves. The additions of Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and John Schreiber were not working out.

The unit was able to get it together as the season went on, thanks to some mid-season additions like Sam Long and Lucas Erceg. Over the last two months of the season they posted a 3.86 ERA with a league-average strikeout rate of 24.3%. But it was the postseason where they impressed, posting a 2.16 ERA which was the best for any team with more than 15 innings pitched.

What factored into the Royals’ success at the end of 2024

Only four members of the Royals bullpen on opening day 2024 remain, and James McArthur will likely start the year either on the injured list or in Omaha. With that said, only one pitcher from the 2023 bullpen has a chance to make the bullpen - Carlos Hernández, who seems to be on the roster bubble right now with no guarantee he will be with the team this season.

The Royals signed Sam Long and traded for John Scheiber before the 2024 season, and both became significant contributors down the stretch. Sam Long became a solid middle-inning reliever who was very effective against lefties. Schreiber became the setup guy for a big part of the season and became a significant contributor in their playoff run with five scoreless outings.

Then at the trade deadline, the Royals made more moves to bolster the back end of their bullpen, trading for Hunter Harvey, and Lucas Erceg. Harvey struggled with a back injury and only a handful of innings with the Royals last season although he returns this year. Erceg led all relievers in fWAR after August 1 and was one of the best relievers in all of baseball down the stretch.

The other significant factor for the Royals turning things around at the end of the season in 2024 was health. Kris Bubic returned from injury and quickly became one of the best relievers on the Royals roster. Between their preseason signings, deadline trades, and health improvements, the Royals bullpen went from one of the worst units in baseball to one of the best.

How these new faces move the needle

This offseason, the Royals continued to bolster the back end of the bullpen making a big splash, with the addition of skilled closer Carlos Estévez. The Royals also brought back Michael Lorenzen for the rotation initially, which will likely push Alec Marsh to the bullpen as well. These additions were significant, and the team also hopes to see guys like Hunter Harvey and Chris Stratton can return from injury.

While Royals fans have experience watching guys like Angel Zerpa, Chris Stratton, Alec Marsh and John Schreiber from 2024, there are several faces fans may not be familiar with just yet. A couple of guys like Lucas Erceg and Sam Long pitched some last season, but will get their first full year in KC in 2025.

Erceg is a true flamethrower, averaging 98.5 MPH on both of his fastballs and mixes is a wicked changeup and solid slider. Erceg had 2.88 ERA in his 25 innings pitched with the Royals with an insane 11.16 K/9 making him one of the best relievers in baseball down the stretch. Sam Long was promoted to the major league team in late May, and got off to a rough start in June with a 4.09 ERA, but turned a corner after that and posted a 1.62 ERA between July and August.

Hunter Harvey posted a 2.82 ERA last season with the Nationals last season and after some success in 2024, the Royals got aggressive and traded for him in mid-July. Harvey was once a top prospect who moved to the bullpen and found a lot of success with 47 holds over the last two years, mostly with the Nationals. Harvey only pitched 5.2 innings with the Royals in 2024, after struggling with a back injury that kept him out the last few months of the year. Prior to the injury, Harvey was averaging just over 98 MPH on his fastball and paired it with a solid splitter and slider. The Royals hope Harvey can get healthy and return to form in 2025.

The biggest pitching addition for the Royals this season was Carlos Estévez, a decorated closer with 57 saves over the last two seasons. Estevez is another hard-throwing reliever who averages 97 on his fastball, and mixes in a good slider and a solid changeup at times as well. Estévez pounds the zone and only had a 5.7% walk rate (84th percentile) last season. the 32-year-old former All-Star is consistent and he will likely become the guy the Royals will lean on to close out games in the ninth inning this season.

With these additions, the Royals finally have the back end of their bullpen solidified with a true setup man and closer, something they lacked all of 2024. They also have one of the best relievers in baseball in Lucas Erceg who they can use at any time to get the outs they need if the opposing team gets hot. For the first time in almost a decade, the Royals have figured out the back end of the bullpen by adding players with true talent and proven success.

What to expect in 2025

My current prediction for the Royals bullpen is Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, Hunter Harvey, Sam Long, Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh, John Schreiber, and Chris Stratton. The unit has depth as well with several players in the minor leagues who can make an impact at any time. This roster would only have two lefties in the bullpen, but with several veteran right-handers who can make an impact regardless of who they are facing.

The Royals bullpen has a blend of experienced talent and skilled younger players they hope to see some development from this season. They have star power at the back end with guys like Lucas Erceg and Carlos Estévez, and have plenty of depth with guys who can make an impact across the board.

This unit is leaps and bounds better than any unit the Royals have had in years, and they are well-rounded with talent from top to bottom. I have seen rankings that leave the Royals out of the top ten and ranked their unit as low as fourth in the AL Central. I think it is very possible, the Royals have the best bullpen in the Central and potentially one of the best in baseball.