Why ‘raising the floor’ is the key to a great Trea Turner season
CLEARWATER, Fla. — No player is immune to streakiness at the plate, but the first two years of Trea Turner’s Phillies career have been defined by the highs and lows.
The numbers paint a brighter picture. After being totally lost for the first four months of 2023, Turner finished the year with a 110 OPS+. From Aug. 4 until the end of the season, he batted .337 with 16 home runs and a 1.057 OPS. He began the year with a .657 OPS over his first 480 plate appearances.
He got off to a decent start last season, batting .343 with a .392 on-base percentage and a .460 slugging percentage from Opening Day to May 3. He was exactly the hitter the Phillies needed him to be, sacrificing some power for contact and getting on-base for the sluggers behind him.
Then he strained his hamstring during an early May game against the Giants and missed over a month. He came back and was hot again, posting a 1.005 OPS with 11 home runs and a .378 OBP from June 17 to July 24. What followed was another brutal two months. From July 26, to the end of the regular season, Turner finished the year with a .248/.285/.393 slash line.
In that same stretch, nobody in the league saw a higher percentage of breaking pitches than Turner (min. 1,500 pitches). American League Rookie of the Year Luis Gil once threw him nine consecutive sliders during a July 29 game. To his credit, Turner chased only one of those pitches, but grounded out twice and walked once.
But the uptick in breaking pitches seen is only part of the story. Only seven players in the league pulled more balls in that same July 26 to the end of the year span. He is prone to expanding the strike zone.
But there are plenty of positives in Turner’s game. Very few players in the history of the sport possess his unique combination of power, contact and speed. The hot streak that followed his brutal first four months was one of the more incredible individual stretches in team history. That level of resiliency deserves some respect.
He is capable of being the best offensive player on the Phillies.
But what will it take for that to happen? For Turner, it’s all about not letting the cold streaks spiral into a prolonged slump.
Turner didn’t need to watch the film back from his bad stretch at the end of last year, but he was able to diagnose the problem.
“A lot of the similarities of early year 2023,” Turner said. “Just trying a little too hard and wanting to do too much at times, and then it just snowballs. It’s not good, consistent baseball that I want to play personally.
“I’ve obviously had really good stretches, but it’s those down trends that have been really bad. I felt like in the past, that’s not the case. Just putting the ball in play more, take your walks, all those things. Obviously, I know those things, but when you’re in the box, you gotta do it.”
Manager Rob Thomson won’t make the final call on the lineup until the end of spring, but it’s obvious that the team is leaning towards moving Turner to the leadoff spot. Turner, who was in Phillies camp for the first time on Wednesday after the birth of his first daughter, said he likes the idea of moving up in the order.
Whether that helps facilitate a change in approach that leads to a more well-rounded Turner remains to be seen.
“I think Trea is going to hit 20-25 home runs, no matter what, at least,” Thomson said. “If he can get on-base at a .380 clip, whatever. Score 100 runs. I mean, that’s production.”
Turner came close to that stat line during his career season in 2021 with Washington and Los Angeles. It resulted in a top-five finish in National League MVP voting.
In that year, his worst month by OPS was .801 in May. That level of consistency is in there.
“Sometimes, you’re not in the right spot, but you have to be able to compete, even when you’re not feeling really good,” Turner said. “I’ve had those really good stretches. Now, it’s when I’m going bad, can I put the ball in play? Can I be a team player and move runners and do all sorts of things?
“Just, raise that floor, I guess.”