Should the Royals sign Yoan Moncada?

The Royals might be better if they sign Yoan Moncada, or it could be a way to burn up money for no reason. It is still something they should consider.

A third baseman that can really hit would be a welcome addition to the Royals lineup. Unfortunately, they are not going to be signing Alex Bregman, so it is likely that if they bring anyone in it will be from the bargain bin of free agency. There is one high-risk candidate sitting there that I am sure the team has considered, and it is probably worth asking Yoán Moncada what it would take to get him to Kansas City.

Moncada came from Cuba being billed as a top-of-the-line international prospect, and he eventually signed for $31.5 million with Boston before being traded to the White Sox in the Chris Sale deal a year and a half later. He was to be a cornerstone of the up-and-coming White Sox dynasty that never materialized. That being said, it looked like Moncada was going to be the player the expected not too long ago.

Yoan made it to the majors very briefly as a 21-year-old and then became the full time starter on the South Side by the end of the next season. At 24 he had his break-out season hitting .315/.367/.548 with 25 home runs and 5.2 fWAR. The next year he was okay in the shortened 2020 season, which we should not hold against him. He came out in 2021 and put together another solid year though not as good as 2019 had been. Since 2021 it has been a litany of injuries that have prevented Moncada from doing much of anything.

In 2022 Moncada hurt his oblique in April, his quad in May, hamstring in June, foot in July, and finally his hamstring in August. He still managed to get 104 games in, but they were not great. The next season he hurt his back in April and then reinjured it in June before coming back in July and playing the rest of the season, but the production didn’t really get back until the very end. Last year an abductor injury limited him to just 12 games. Signing him would come with a whole heap of risk if you were counting on him, but that might be where the Royals can justify talking to him.

Maikel Garcia is an excellent defender at third. His bat is just not the caliber you want for a corner infield spot. Last season, he posted a 69 wRC+, which is not really playable as an everyday bat. I do not believe that Jonathan India can jump over to third since his arm strength is barely up for second base, and that means the Royals could really use another option at the hot corner.

Yoán Moncada, at the right price, could provide some significant upside to this particular team. After his struggles as a second baseman in 2018, Moncada has played exclusively at third and rated pretty well. His bat has been near average to silver slugger level depending on the season except for his injury-riddled 2022 campaign. Even if he does not play every day or gets hurt, Kansas City has shown they can muddle through with a subpar lineup as long as the pitching holds up. This seems like the type of risk they should take.

At what price does Moncada look like an option? That is the real question to me. His projected WAR ranges from slightly below 1 to 1.5 for the most part and he will almost certainly only get a one-year deal unless he agrees to a team option or something. There have been teams interested, most recently the Yankees, so you will have to compete for his services. I’m just speculating while looking at the free agents signed so far, but I think he could be had for one year and somewhere between $5 and 7 million depending on how the incentives are structured. I would personally offer him less than $5 million but with fairly significant games played and other performance bonuses available.

What Moncada gets is an obvious path to playing time. There is no one in his way at third, so if he is healthy he will have a long leash to prove he is still a capable player. He isn’t old - he turns 30 in May - so a bounce-back could turn into a decent three-year deal next year. He is motivated, I would assume, and the Royals have a need. I hope they have at least reached out to him.

If Moncada ends up playing only 38 games and you spent $5 million bucks, that is a fairly small loss that the Royals should be able to afford. If he is mostly healthy and hits at league average or better, that would be extremely helpful, especially if one of the second baseman does move to left and Garcia turns into a super-sub around the infield. If Moncada goes back to hitting anywhere above a 120 wRC+ for 100 games or more, then this will be a move that is talked about a lot as they waltz into the playoffs. This seems like the sort of low-risk gamble with upside that a team like KC should be down for.