What Fangraphs’ Preseason WAR Projections Say About The Mets

Each season, Fangraphs releases their wins above replacement (WAR) projections for each player, and subsequently, each team. With the fact external additions to teams around the league are not finalized yet, how does Fangraphs weigh the New York Mets? And, specifically, how do they grade out position-by-postion?

Overall, the Mets currently have a total projected fWAR of 46.6 which ranks fourth behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, and New York Yankees. The Mets’ 46.6 figure is 7.2 WAR behind the mighty Dodgers who have a 4.6 WAR cushion above the second-place Atlanta Braves (49.2). As far as the rest of the National League East goes, the Philadelphia Phillies trail both the Mets and Braves at a fWAR of 45.3 (seventh-best) and the Nationals and Marlins reside at 27th and 28th, respectively.

When looking positionally around the league, it is no surprise where the Mets are projected to excel. Shortstop, left field, right field, and relief pitching all have the Mets ranked within the top six. The main area they are toward the bottom of the league is center field, as their 1.9 projected fWAR from that position is third-worst in the majors. Meanwhile, starting pitching is also toward the bottom, checking in with a combined projected fWAR of 11.7 which comes in 19th in the major leagues.

As you can see from where the team ranks positionally, Fangraphs sees the Mets as a pretty well-rounded team. They are not too top-heavy, as if they were, you’d see more variability as to where they rank positionally around the league. They are in the top half in every position group outside the aforementioned starting pitching group as well as centerfield.

Player-specific, the Mets are led by Juan Soto (6.0), Francisco Lindor (5.5), Francisco Alvarez (3.6), Mark Vientos (3.0), and Brandon Nimmo (2.7) in projected fWAR as far as positional players go. Pitching-wise, Kodai Senga (2.5), Sean Manaea (2.0), and Edwin Díaz (1.6) are projected as the highest.

At the end of the day, projections are just that. However, it is encouraging to see how well the Mets currently project entering the season. Of course, there is some more room for improvement before Opening Day whether that be another big bat in the lineup or one more addition to the rotation. Regardless, the Mets are slated to be very competitive again come 2025.

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