2025 Mets Pitching Preview: Sean Manaea

There’s a lot of buzz surrounding the Mets’ 2025 pitching staff. There are some new faces like Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, and the return of Kodai Senga looms large after he threw just 10 1/3 innings between the regular season and playoffs due to injury. David Peterson hopes to show his excellent season wasn’t a fluke, and Sean Manaea re-signed with the team on a three-year deal worth $75 million after a stellar campaign of his own.

As pitchers and catchers get set to report to spring training in under two weeks, let’s preview the 2025 starting rotation, starting with Manaea.  

The left-hander had a phenomenal 2024 season. He took his game to another level when he changed his arm angle to a more side-armed approach, which mimicked Chris Sale’s delivery. Manaea went 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, compiling a 9.12 K/9 and a 1.08 WHIP. Below is a breakdown of Manaea’s 2024 season:

Manaea utilized a six-pitch arsenal last year. This consisted of a sinker, sweeper, changeup, four-seam fastball, cutter and slider. As seen from the table above, he relied heavily on his sinker as he threw it 44.7% of the time, and that trend was even more prevalent down the stretch.

As shown in the graph labeled Pitch Usage in Last 5 Games, Manaea’s usage of his sinker was above 50% in each of those contests, topping out at nearly 80% in his start against the Washington Nationals on September 16. It is also interesting to note that his average velocity with the offering was 92.3 miles per hour, which was the same exact number he produced with his four-seam fastball.

More interesting is that Manaea’s four-seamer registered a swing-and-miss rate of 15.6%, the highest of any of his pitches. His sinker, in comparison, had a swing-and-miss rate of only 9.5%. On the flip side of that, his sinker was tied with his slider for the most-called strike at 18.2%. This could mean that batters were making contact with the pitch, but were also fooled by it more frequently.

Looking at Manaea’s off-speed pitches, his two main options were the sweeper and the changeup. He threw the former 19.2% of the time and the latter 11.8% of the time. The sweeper was a very effective pitch, as it registered a 14.3% swing-and-miss rate as well as a 16.5% called strike rate. This means that hitters were both missing when they swung at the pitch and deceived when it landed in the zone.

The sweeper was higher in both of these categories than his changeup. In addition, the sweeper produced Manaea’s second-lowest average exit velocity at 78.6 MPH. Manaea’s changeup, on the other hand, had the lowest average launch angle at 7.2 degrees, meaning it generated plenty of ground balls. 

Looking ahead to 2025, consistency will be the marquee attribute of Manaea’s game. He found what worked for him in 2024; let’s see if he can emulate that success again this year. Look for Manaea to continue to rely heavily on his sinker-sweeper combination. Also, when he is in a jam with runners on base, look for him to throw his changeup to keep the ball on the ground and induce double-play balls.

Based on the statistics, that’s what should remain part of Manaea’s game. The Mets have one of the best pitching labs in MLB, so it will be interesting to see what improvements will be made to bolster the southpaw’s performance for the 2025 season as he potentially enters 2025 as the team’s No 1. starter. 

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