Free Agent Profile: Chris Martin, RP

Chris Martin, RP

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Age: 38 (06/02/1986)

2024 Traditional Stats: 45 G, 44 1/3 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 3-1, 50 K, 3 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 124 ERA+, 27.8% K%, 1.7% BB%, 3.29 xERA, 2.78 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 0.9 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR

Rundown

Chris Martin had a magical 2023 season that ended with him receiving a Cy Young vote. While his 3.45 ERA was a far cry from the 1.05 mark he posted in 2023, he improved in a lot of ways in 2024. His strikeout rate jumped from 23.1% to 27.8%, his walk rate dropped to a minuscule 1.7% and his xFIP fell from 2.90 to 2.61. A master of control, the 38-year-old amassed a career-best strikeout-to-walk ratio of an eye-popping 16.67.

Statcast indicates that Martin got quite unlucky this season as well. He over-performed his xERA by over two runs in 2023, but his xERA of 3.29 and FIP of 2.78 this year were lower than his ERA by a sizable amount. Opponents batted .276 against him, but they also had a BABiP of .359, the highest he’s ever allowed over the course of a full season. Hitters also posted a .257 xBA when facing him, which is lower than his .265 mark from 2023. The biggest concern with Martin is the long ball – his home run rate nearly tripled from 1% to 2.8%, and his fly ball rate increased from 15.2% to 21.1%. Still, he allowed just nine extra-base hits on the season, giving up fewer than 10 for the second straight year.

Martin relies on a four-pitch mix – a cutter, four-seamer, splitter and sinker. His velocity was down across the board, but his batted-ball data improved significantly on both his four-seamer and cutter. Martin’s cutter was his most effective pitch, registering a 27.6% whiff rate (up from 20.9% in 2023) and a plus-3 run value. Opponents batted .323 against his splitter, though all hits against it were singles.

Contract

Martin isn’t listed on MLB Trade Rumors‘ Top 50 Free Agents list. FanGraphs predicts he will sign a one-year contract worth $7 million. His last deal was worth $17.5 million over two years from the Red Sox.

Recommendation

Martin has been one of the game’s more underrated arms over the last six years, never recording an ERA+ lower than 111. During that stretch, he hasn’t posted a walk rate higher than 4.5%, and the Mets served up the third-most free passes in the majors in 2024. While he’s never been a team’s closer, he’s frequently been deployed in high-leverage situations and has a 1.88 ERA in 14 2/3 postseason innings. The Mets could use another battle-tested arm for a bullpen that was heavily taxed for much of the 2024 season. Despite his age, Martin would make for a solid fit in Flushing.

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