What a Kyle Tucker trade package could have looked like for the Phillies
The Phillies reportedly showed some level of interest, but ultimately did not land star outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Tucker, who went from the Houston Astros to the Chicago Cubs in a blockbuster deal last, could have been the best trade acquisition in Phillies history since Roy Halladay. He may not have come with the same name brand appeal as Juan Soto, but Tucker’s numbers aren’t far behind.
Tucker has a 143 OPS+ over the last four seasons, meaning he’s hit 43% better than league average. His ability to work an at-bat and take walks would have been a godsend to a Phillies lineup built on aggression and mistake-hunting early in the count.
Since 2020, the only outfielders that have accumulated more FanGraphs wins above replacement than Tucker (20.9) are Aaron Judge (33.4), Soto (27.1) and Mookie Betts (24.9). Harper is just behind Tucker at 20.
So what was the price it took to land a younger version of Harper for one season?
The Cubs surrendered third baseman Isaac Paredes, starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski and infield prospect Cam Smith.
It was a steep price to pay, but it could be worth it if the Cubs make the playoffs for the first time in a full season since 2018 and go on a lengthy October run.
Paredes and Wesneski will contribute to the 2025 Astros. Paredes will be an everyday player either at first or third base and Wesneski will be a back-of-the-rotation arm with upside. Smith, the Cubs’ first-round draft choice in 2024, is a Top 100 prospect with a power bat that could get to the majors relatively soon.
Could the Phillies have beaten the Cubs’ package for Tucker? Yes. Would it have been worth it? It depends on how you view the short- and long-term future of the franchise.
The Phillies have insisted that their “competitive window“ is not closing. They are set on competing for championships over the next several years. Some players will depart as free agents as early as next year, when Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are all no longer under contract.
Even though some big names will leave, the club feels like they have a strong enough farm system to maintain their competitiveness.
But if you’ve been a Phillies fan long enough, you know that sustained success is not something the franchise is known for. The best stretch in Phillies history, 2007-2011, was followed by a lengthy rebuild because the team did not develop the next wave of talent behind Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.
The franchise’s second-best stretch, 1976-83, was followed by one winning season in 10 years before an unexpected run to the pennant in 1993. It took another 15 years after ’93 for the Phillies to make the postseason again, even with the playoff expanding.
You are not wrong to be skeptical about the team’s ability to remain competitive for years to come after the current core ages out of their prime. If that’s how you see things, then it makes a lot of sense to hedge the future for a player like Tucker.
So what could a potential Phillies trade package for Tucker have looked like?
Cristopher Sanchez alone probably could have been enough to get Tucker.
Even if you believe he is closer to a No. 3 starter than a No.1, Sánchez is one of the most valuable pitchers in the league. He is under team control through 2030 at a maximum salary of $19 million.
Starters who can pitch the first or second game of the playoffs are hard to find. The Astros probably would have loved to acquire six years of Sanchez for one year of Tucker.
But the Phillies view Sanchez as someone capable of carry the rotation alongside Andrew Painter for the remainder of the decade. Even if Sanchez never pitches as well as he has in each of the last two years, he is still a relative bargain at the contract he is signed to.
If Sanchez is untouchable, the Phillies still could have put together a three-player package comparable to what the Cubs gave up for Tucker.
With Houston in need of a third baseman, Bohm’s inclusion in the deal would have made sense. Bohm and Paredes were both All-Stars who regressed in the second half. Paredes, who is younger and has three years of team control as opposed to Bohm’s two years, is probably a better fit for Houston. Paredes’ extreme tendency to pull the ball in the air also plays well as a right-handed hitter in Minute Maid Park. Bohm could have benefited from the Crawford Boxes, but not nearly as much as Paredes.
Aidan Miller, another former first-round pick, is a good comp for Smith. Smith might have a higher offensive ceiling, but Miller is a much better defender at a premium position.
Moisés Chace, a top 10 Phillies prospect according to Baseball America, is probably the closest thing the Phillies have to someone like Wesneski.
Chace, who was acquired in the Gregory Soto deal in July, has the most upside out of all of the minor league starting depth options the Phillies will funnel through this year.
Whether it’s Sanchez for Tucker, Bohm, Miller and Chace for Tucker or something similar, it would have been a high price to pay.
But considering that the Phillies should head into 2025 with World Series aspirations, going all-in to get a premium talent like Tucker would have made sense.
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