Free Agent Profile: Michael Conforto, OF

Michael Conforto, OF

Position: OF, B/T: L/R
Player Data: Age: 31 (03/01/1993)

2024 Traditional Stats: 130 G, 488 PA, .237/.309/.450/.759, 104 H, 20 HR, 66 RBI
2024 Advanced Stats: 112 wRC+, 24.2 K%, 8.6 BB%, .277 BABIP, .352 xwOBA, 1.3 fWAR

Rundown

No stranger to New York, Michael Conforto debuted for the Mets in 2015, less than a year after they drafted him in the first round. Conforto came out of the gates swinging for New York, helping the Mets capture the National League Pennant in 2015, their first since 2000. However, he faced constant promotion and demotion over the next couple of years, struggling to find the same success he captured in his first cup of coffee. Up-and-down years plagued the burgeoning superstar. Constant extension talk never surmounted to anything, and Conforto finished his six-year Met career with a .255/.356/.468/.824 line, hitting 132 home runs, 141 doubles, and 396 RBIs in 757 games.

The Mets extended the qualifying offer to Conforto after the 2021 season, but the outfielder decided to bet on himself. However, with the lockout delaying free agency talks, he began the season as a free agent in 2022 and missed the entire year after shoulder surgery. He signed a two-year, $36 million deal with the San Francisco Giants in January 2023.

Conforto played both left and right field for San Francisco after just playing right field in Queens, finishing his Giants tenure with a modest .238/.322/.418/.740 line. He launched 35 homers, 41 doubles and 124 RBIs in 255 games. Advanced analytics for Conforto’s 2024 campaign suggest he ran into some bad luck while at the plate. His expected batting average (xBA) landed him in the 62nd percentile (.258). However, his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) put him in the 88th percentile (.488), second-best on the team next to Heliot Ramos.

The slugger’s xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) for 2024 (.352) saw highs not seen since his All-Star season in 2017, where it was .377. His average exit velocity increased for the first time since 2016 (90.2), putting him in the 68th percentile. It was, however, an up-and-down season for Conforto once more. Until his hamstring injury in mid-May, he hit .280/.331/.490 with seven home runs. However, once activated and through the All-Star break, he hit just .179/.285/368 with three home runs. He got hot again in August and September, finishing his season strong.

Conforto appeared in 130 games in 2024 and 125 for San Francisco in 2023. The most games he’s ever played in was 153 back in 2018. He’s spent time on the injured list at least once in every season dating back to 2017, mostly with hamstring tightness and strains as of recently. However, despite injury, 2024 proved to be a bounce-back campaign for Conforto, producing at least 20 home runs and 60+ RBIs for the first time since 2019. Of concern is his increased strikeout percentage and decreased walk rate. He walked just 42 times, his lowest since 2016 when he walked 36 times. He also struck out 118 times, ranking him in the 36th percentile in the league.

Contract

MLB Trade Rumors ranks Conforto as the No. 32 free agent on their Top 50 Free Agent List. They project he will receive a two-year, $18 million deal this offseason. At $9 million per year, this would give Conforto half of what he made in just one year with the Giants. While the outfield free agent market isn’t thin, there aren’t many notable star power names outside of Juan Soto. Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are the next tier, and their respective clubs offered them qualifying offers like Soto.

As a player who only averages around 120 games per season, Conforto acts as more of a fourth outfielder and designated hitter looking to supplement at the position. 

Recommendation

Like every free agent, the Mets’ plans for the offseason hinge on how they proceed with Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. However, the president of baseball operations, David Stearns, made it clear the team was searching for a center fielder via free agency or trade or could turn to Tyrone Taylor. With an outfield of Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor, and Starling Marte, a fourth one is still needed. Also, Marte’s age might make him a defensive liability at some point, so the Mets might want to shift him to DH and bring in another corner outfielder.

A Conforto-Mets reunion is an interesting premise. If the Mets sign Soto, it doesn’t make sense. However, if they miss out and decide to switch to Marte at DH, I wouldn’t put it past Stearns to take on Conforto as another reclamation project. Conforto shouldn’t and won’t be too high on the Mets’ priority checklist, but if things fall that way, it could be a comeback story for the ages.

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