Michael Wacha should be a Royal in 2025

For once, the Royals have most of the leverage

One of the first situations the Royals will have to deal with as they begin their offseason is Michael Wacha’s contract. During the last off-season, Wacha signed a two-year deal worth $16 million each year with a player opt-out after the first year. Or, if you prefer, he signed a one-year deal worth $16 million with a player option for a second year. It’s the same result. Five days after the World Series ends, Wacha will have to decide whether to play for the Royals in 2025 under that option or if he wants to try to get more money.

The title says everything you need to know about whether the Royals should want Wacha back in 2025, but let’s talk about how that might happen.

He could just stick to his current deal

Looking around the internet almost every take you’ll find is that Wacha is almost guaranteed to opt out of his current contract with KC. However, looking at the numbers, it’s unclear why everyone seems to think that. His 2024 season numbers are remarkably similar to the ones he put up in 2023, which led to the $16 million he got in 2024. The primary differences are that he pitched more innings, but also that he’s a year older.

Players tend to bet on themselves when it comes to money, especially as they become veterans with track records of success. That said, if Wacha stuck to his current deal he wouldn’t have to try to convince anyone to pay him in 2025 - an annoying proposition any job seeker can identify with. He’d also guarantee himself a stable situation where his family would get to live in the same city for a second year in a row for the first time since he left the Cardinals after 2019. He’d get to stick with the coaching staff that helped him develop the slider that made him so valuable during the year. And he’d be on a team with winning aspirations. There are a lot of variables at play if he opts out.

I certainly wouldn’t go so far as to say he’ll definitely choose to keep the final year of his current deal, but it strikes me as odd that so many people (without citing any sources, anonymous or otherwise) are convinced he wouldn’t. It seems like a 50-50 proposition, in reality.

What if he does want to test the market again?

As noted at the top, Wacha has until five days after the World Series to decide whether he wants to opt out. The Royals have the remainder of the Championship Series as well as the World Series itself to try to work out an extension for him that would guarantee he stays. Some people have theorized adding a year or two at the same annual average value of $16 million should get it done. If so, that’s certainly something the Royals should consider.

But, if that isn’t enough, the Royals have one final lever to pull that would almost certainly guarantee he stuck around in KC for at least one more season. Because Wacha played the entire year in Kansas City and because he’s never had it used against him before, they could extend him a qualifying offer. This year’s qualifying offer value is set at $21 million. That’s only $5 million more than Wacha is due to make in 2025, anyway, and if he pitched close to how he pitched this season (with no real reason to think he couldn’t) he’d absolutely be worth that. Because teams signing players away from qualifying offers have to give up draft picks (by far the most valuable resource in MLB transactions, currently,) it makes getting good deals as a qualifying-offer free agent far more difficult. If the Royals extended one to Wacha, he’d almost have to sign it because there’s almost no way he could get more in 2025 and his options for longer-term deals would also be curtailed.

And, in the worst-case scenario where Wacha didn’t accept the offer and couldn’t otherwise reach terms with the Royals, they’d receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round if he signed elsewhere. As the Royals continue to try to rebuild their farm system, that could also be a huge boon for them.

The Wacha situation is one of the most critical this offseason for the Royals as they seek to return to the playoffs in 2025, but the good news is that it should be resolved relatively quickly and most likely in favor of Wacha returning to wear Royal blue for at least one more season.