Guardians Playoff Hopes Fading after loss in Game 3

The offense could not get going against the Tigers bullpen

The Guardians find their backs against the wall as they have gone scoreless over the past twenty innings against the Tigers, falling in game three of the American League Division series, 3-0, now down in the series two games to one.

I want to make sure everyone reading this understands the kind of person who is typing this up - I believe the best way to approach sports is to hope for the best, to believe in your team, and to see the bright side in everything. My mentality was shaped as a fourteen year-old going to bed heart-broken after seeing the Cleveland Indians lose to the Miami Marlins in game seven of the World Series. That was the most horrible feeling I’d known outside of a family member passing away at that point, and I knew at that moment that I had to compartmentalize sports more effectively to enjoy it. So, I will always try to see the positive and joy, even while being a fan of a sport designed to steal my joy.

So, what can I say to make you feel better about the Guardians getting shut out AGAIN by the Tigers, making it so the numbers say that Detroit has a 77% chance of winning this series? Wow, what a challenge!

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first:

- Alex Cobb was likely the best choice the Guardians had out of their potential starting pitcher options. He wasn’t bad for three innings, but he wasn’t sharp enough to avoid some hard contact and giving up two runs. I don’t think that starting Gavin Williams or Joey Cantillo was a better choice, here, but it goes to show, again, how poorly Cleveland’s starting pitching played out this year. And, this trade deadline, the options for starting pitcher were limited making Cobb one of the best arms traded. Detroit’s ability to keep the ball off the ground helped limit his effectiveness with the Guardians’ great defense behind him, and that was enough to carry the day.

- David Fry is making very clear he should not be viewed as more than a good hitter for a backup catcher. He did make hard contact in a lineout with runners on in the seventh, but a key strikeout swinging on a slider way outside the strike-zone when he pinch hit for Kyle Manzardo in the third is something you can’t really be seeing consistently from your DH in that spot.

- Andres Gimenez has lost his September stroke that saw him perform as a league average hitter. Aside from a strikeout, his batted balls today had an average exit velocity of around 69 mph. If the Guardians want to get their worth out of the contract extension they handed him, they have to find a way to get the perennial Platinum Glover closer to something between 100-120 wRC+ than the 83 wRC+ he put up this season.

- I was prepared to defend Stephen Vogt in this article for his decisions. I don’t think three innings was too much to ask from Cobb. I think he handled the bullpen well. He walked Kerry Carpenter in the crucial spot to do so. I think his decisions to pinch-hit for Kyle Manzardo and Will Brennan (especially) were defensible in terms of going for the jugular. But, the Guardians can’t end this game with an Austin Hedges’ at-bat. Whatever decisions were made leading to that outcome have to be re-examined. I think it would have been better to keep Manzardo in the game longer and leverage Fry for a later appearance. But, unfortunately, Bo Naylor has also regressed significantly as a hitter and is offering the team nothing at the plate, handcuffing his manager in this game.

- Jose Ramirez hit a couple balls hard (98 and 102 mph) with nothing to show for it. But, hey, we know this team isn’t going anywhere if Jose doesn’t perform at the plate. He has to find a way to get a little more MPH, a little more pull on those fly balls and target even better pitches if the Guardians can pull off a miracle and climb out of this hole.

- Josh Naylor made an error and Bo looked a little shaky behind the plate, a disappointing turn of events for a Guardians’ team that relies on their stellar defense.

- The Guardians have no answer for A.J. Hinch’s bullpen levers. He seemingly never missteps with his choices for when a given relief weapon should be drawn or resheathed. It’s up to the Cleveland hitting group to force some deep counts and earn pitches they can drive and, for the most part, that hasn’t happened over the past twenty innings, as the scoreboard clearly shows.

Ok, now, bear with me, I’m going to show you how that inner, brokenhearted fourteen year-old is still finding it possible to bear up under a disappointing loss.

- The Guardians hit the ball better than the Tigers did this game, with a .254 expected batting average to .194 for Detroit. Balls were scalded right at guys at just the wrong time, or hit in the air to slightly the wrong part of the park. Johnkensy Noel continues to show an advanced approach at the plate for a 23 year-old who had a lot of chase issues in the minors, and was robbed of a walk by an egregiously bad strike call in the seventh (not blaming this outcome on the umpires, though, just to clarify - bad calls happen to everyone).

- How about that Guardians’ pen? Aside from Eli Morgan giving up a run on two hits on balls struck under 94 mph, they remain dominant, including great outings from rookies Erik Sabrowski, Andrew Walters and Joey Cantillo. And what more can we say about Cade Smith and Tim Herrin? Watching them is a true joy.

-Brayan Rocchio has shown an advanced approach at the plate this postseason, growing into his own as a hitter.

- Lane Thomas had two of the five hardest hits in the game and consistently puts up good at-bats for Cleveland. I could not be more pleased with this deadline addition and look forward to him being our centerfielder in 2025 (hopefully with Chase DeLauter in right field).

But, I’m not ready to look at next season yet. This team hasn’t given up all season when the odds were against them. I hope they can look at an improved approach today with somewhat unlucky results and build on their growth to come out strong tomorrow. They are going to see a lot of Tiger arms they’ve seen before. Surely, someone will solve this Detroit bullpen magic of the past three months, and why can’t it be the Guardians?

They will have one more shot to show that they belong in the postseason. With the wild excitement of Detroit’s first playoff game in a decade out of the way, tomorrow will be now or never for Cleveland to bear down and show why they were the second-best team in the American League and the winner of the Central Division.