Three Keys for Game Three for the Guardians

Things to watch today come three PM

We are about to watch the crucial game in the American League Division Series between the Guardians and Tigers.

The odds are already on the side of the Tigers, as MLB teams heading home with the series tied 1-1 have won 66% of the time under the current five-game series format. The Guardians’ chances to flip that script revolve around finding a way to win today, as game-three winners in five-game series go on to win 73% of the time. So, how can the Guardians’ win today?

1. Filter Out the Mental and Physical Noise

It’s probably good for the Guardians that they had an extra day to distance themselves from Emmanuel Clase giving up the first three-run home run in his career in the worst possible time and their offense’s inability to solve Tarik Skubal and the Tigers’ bullpen. This team strikes me as a strong group, mentally, so I would not expect them to have a vibes hangover. As this will be the Tigers’ first home playoff game in a decade, I’d expect the expansive Comerica Park to be pretty unhinged which can lead to some nerves. Rely on your veteran players to guide the young folks through that environment. Enjoy the air of excitement and get motivated to shut them up with the way you play.

2. Work Counts, Maintain a Consistent Approach at the Plate

The Guardians were aggressive with Tarik Skubal who was throwing strikes, and the home plate umpire had a somewhat generous zone. They were unable to get one single base-on-balls in game two. In contrast, the Guardians chased the excellent Tyler Holton in game one by putting up some long at-bats. I have seen telltale signs of folks like Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor chasing pitches in an attempt to do too much. I have seen Andres Gimenez and David Fry taking hacks at the first pitch they see with runners on base and topping balls on the ground. The goal today should be to work yourself into counts where the Tigers’ pitchers are forced to come in the zone.

3. Pitch the Vet and the Rookies

Alex Cobb seems like an uncertain value because he ended the season on the injured list with a blister. Earlier in the season, he hopped off the IL and was immediately effective. He has good downward movement on his pitches, which is something the Tigers have struggled against. The Guardians’ best chance to win this series is to hope their big deadline pitching acquisition, the cagey vet Alex Cobb, can get a bunch of groundballs and give them four or five innings. If Cobb runs into trouble, I’d like to see Vogt get Erik Sabrowski and Andrew Walters into this game. Both players have excellent fastballs which is a pitch the Tigers, as a team, have struggled with. I would use Cade Smith to get Cobb out of trouble and then, once Smith has pitched his requisite 2 innings, I would give these rookies each a clean inning to get you to the backend of the bullpen. At this point, these are the players who can help you get where you want to go and they shouldn’t be avoided in use just because it’s the playoffs.

Also, as a side-note, let’s not get cute with our pitch-calling (i.e. throwing three straight sliders to Kerry Carpenter when your cutter is the best pitch in baseball). Make the Tigers beat your best pitchers using their best stuff. And, remember, Riley Greene and Carpenter are the most dangerous hitters in this lineup. Don’t go home because you challenged them when you could have made another Tiger beat you.

I believe in the Guardians and their ability to steal the momentum back in this series, turning the odds back in their favor. The manager and the roster should be confident in their talent and their approach and not let the Tigers’ crowd and parade of bullpen arms shake them from their plan.