MLB Playoffs: Three reasons to believe in the Guardians this postseason

José Ramírez and the Guardians are ready to make their mark on the postseason.

The Cleveland Guardians have surprised a lot of baseball experts by winning the American League Central division and remaining toward the top of their league for the entire 2024 season – but can they win it all?

In manager Stephen Vogt’s first year as skipper, the Guardians are a feel good story, but how much of this run is sustainable? Does the team have any shot at ending their 76-year title drought or is their Cinderella slipper about to slip off the foot? Let’s look at three reasons to doubt... and three reasons to believe... in the 2024 Cleveland Guardians

Reasons to Believe

The Bullpen

The Guardians bullpen has maintained the best ERA in majors all season and has put up more win-probability-added than any bullpen in MLB history. From unknowns such as Erik Sabrowski and Andrew Walters to now established high-leverage standouts in Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase, they seem built to make every game a four-inning affair for their opponents. The scheduling of the ALDS, especially, makes leveraging your best arms - something Vogt has done exceptionally well at - a lot easier than the usual back-to-back schedule of the regular season. After an uncharacteristically uneven 2023, Clase has bounced back to Mariano Rivera-type numbers in 2024, and speaks repeatedly of his one dream being to close out games in the postseason. His 100 mph cutter seems almost impossible to square up, and he has deployed an effective drop slider with reliable deadliness throughout this year as well. And, in all this, I haven’t even mentioned Pedro Avila and Eli Morgan who will regularly take the ball for 2-3 innings and deliver shutout frames. This unit is special and pitching guru Carl Willis has them humming along at just the right time.

The Power of Friendship

I could mention the Guardians excellent defense again here or repeat my confidence in Vogt’s ability to put both hitters and pitchers in the most advantageous positions possible. Instead, I will point to backup catcher Austin Hedges whom Jose Ramirez identified as a key piece missing during the 2023 campaign. Hedges is a catching savant and a pitcher whisperer, but can’t hit at all. Yet, somehow, from the Guardians of 2022 to the Rangers of 2023 to this Cleveland team, he leads the league in weighted vibe-probability added. Hedges is the clubhouse leader but all of these guys love each other and each of them believes they’ll find a way. Vibes and beliefs will not compensate for poor hitting and pitching, but when both teams provide a solid hitting approach and great pitching game plans, mutual respect and belief can be the intangible that just tilts the scales in the whirlwind that we know as the MLB postseason. Trust and confidence in personal relationships, especially, means something in high intensity moments in baseball.

Jose Ramirez

Finally, it’s the Bat from Bani, folks. Lost in Shohei Ohtani’s godlike 50/50 season and Aaron Judge’s staggering offensive dominance, Ramirez is 32 years old now and somehow threatened to post his first 40/40 season (going 39/41 and 39 doubles instead in 161 games). He continues to play sensational defense at third base, but also grabs flags from mascots to race around his homefield delighting his adoring fans after playoff berths are clinched. Not only does he seem destined for the Hall of Fame and a statue outside Progressive Field someday, he also constantly pronounces that his one goal in every frantic moment of tenacity he displays on the field is offered for one reason - to win a title. “Great heart will not be denied,” J.R.R. Tolkien once wrote. Time will tell if those words will prove as true in the epic quest to bring a ring to the corner of Carnegie and Ontario as they did in bringing a ring to Mount Doom. Whatever the outcome, Cleveland fans will always appreciate being able to watch more of Jose Ramirez playing baseball.

In summary, if you haven’t been paying much attention to the Cleveland Guardians this season, it’s time to bring them up on your radar. A smart, young manager, a historically dominant bullpen, a roster made up of rainbows, puppies and vibes, and a future hall of famer will be playing on the October stage looking to make some noise.

Reasons to Doubt

The Offense

The Guardians have some good hitters - Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan (if healthy), Lane Thomas and David Fry. But, they also have a young offense composed mostly of players who remain unproven in a playoff environment. The team’s overall wRC has hovered around 13th-16th in MLB all year. Over the past twenty years the only teams to win a title with team wRC+’s ranked 13th or lower in the league are the 2005 White Sox (17th), the 2006 Cardinals (13th) and the 2010 Giants (14th). Although they didn’t win it all, perhaps the 2023 Diamondbacks who were 18th in wRC+ last year are a model here. If you get just a couple hot hitters and have good pitching, you can slay some giants and make a lot of noise.

The Starting Rotation

The Achilles’ heel of this ballclub all season has been trying to sort through a rotation missing Shane Bieber and losing the former effectiveness of Triston McKenzie. The team’s ace is Tanner Bibee in only his second year in the bigs. The team would love for Alex Cobb to start a playoff game with his groundball abilities meshing perfectly with Cleveland’s excellent infield defense, but he’s barely pitched with fingernail and blister issues. Matthew Boyd returning from Tommy John has been a bit of a revelation but it’s hard not to wonder how sustainable his short-term excellence is. Gavin Williams has been wildly inconsistent, and Ben Lively is doubted by every advanced metric but finds a way to give the team a shot to win every time out. Finally, rookie Joey Cantillo seems to have figured out how not to walk six guys per nine like he was in Columbus and has put up some great outings in key spots recently. Can the Guardians find the right combination among these six to pair with their bullpen and surprise folks looking at their dismal overall numbers from this season?

Struggles Against the Yankees

The Guardians are 5-13 against the Yankees since the 2022 season. It’s very hard to say how that record should be viewed in terms of predicting future results, but it’s equally hard to predict that the Guardians will reach the World Series without having to go through New York.