Orioles/Royals Wild Card series preview

These O’s ain’t Royal.

The Royals swept the Orioles in the 2014 ALCS, eventually falling to the Giants in the World Series. The Royals won it all in 2015, but would see the core of that team depart in 2017, leading to a rebuild that bottomed out with a 106-loss season last year. The Orioles made the playoffs in 2016, but began tearing down for a rebuild shortly after that, losing 110 games in 2021.

The two teams have bounced back to contention, with the Orioles reaching the playoffs last year with 101 wins, their best season since 1980. They regressed a bit this year, but still have a team loaded with talented young players that are hungry after being swept in the first round of the playoffs a year ago. The Royals were a surprise to be back in the playoffs this quickly, but with MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. and one of the best starting rotations in baseball, they could be well-equipped to make a deep run in October.

Kansas City Royals (86-76) vs. Baltimore Orioles (91-71) at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Royals: 4.54 runs scored/game (13th in MLB), 3.98 runs allowed/game (6th)

Orioles: 4.85 runs scored/game (4th), 4.31 runs allowed/game (17th)

The Orioles beat up on the Central Division this year, going 21-11, including winning four of six in the head-to-head series against the Royals this season. Here’s a refresher on how those games went:

• April 1 (in Baltimore) Orioles 6 Royals 4 - Royals tie it in the ninth, but Jordan Westburg hits a two-run walk-off home run off Nick Anderson in the bottom of the ninth.
• April 2 (in Baltimore) Royals 4 Orioles 1 - Alec Marsh allows just two hits and one run over seven innings, Maikel Garcia doubles and triples for 3 RBI.
• April 3 (in Baltimore) Orioles 4 Royals 3 - Cole Ragans bests Corbin Burnes, but Will Smith gives up a two-run single with two outs in the ninth.
• April 19 (in Kansas City) Royals 9 Orioles 4 - Royals bat around with a five-run sixth inning off Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin.
• April 20 (in Kansas City) Orioles 9 Royals 7 - Orioles put up seven runs off Ragans in the second inning, Royals seventh-inning comeback falls short.
• April 21 (in Kansas City) Orioles 5 Royals 0 - Cole Irvin holds the Royals to four hits over 6 ²⁄₃ innings while Seth Lugo is knocked out in the sixth.

The Orioles were a team of two halves this season. They got off to a sensational start and after 81 games they were 51-30, the third-best team in baseball. But they had a losing record in both July and August and finished just 40-41 in the second half.

One culprit was injuries - they lost starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez and hitters Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, and Ramón Urías in the second half. But the biggest culprit was the bullpen. Their 4.81 ERA after the All-Star break was the fourth-worst in baseball (the Royals’ bullpen had a 4.00 ERA after the break). They traded away former All-Star outfielder Austin Hays to the Phillies for reliever Seranthony Dominguez, and also acquired reliever Gregory Soto in a separate trade from Philly in an attempt to solidify the pen. They eventually released former All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel in September when his ERA bloated over five.

The Orioles were worse at home than on the road, going 44-37 at Camden Yards, losing their final three home series of the year. Camden Yards used to be a fairly cozy home run park, but they moved the fences in left-center field back with a taller fence in 2022. The result now is that Camden Yards is below-average as a home run park, although average as a hitter’s park overall. Orioles hitters hit 47.6 percent of their home runs at home this year.

Like the Royals, the Orioles had some offensive issues in September, with a two-week stretch where they scored just 24 runs in 12 games with three shutouts. But they seemed to get back on track in the final week, and overall they had the seventh-best wRC+ in September, while the Royals were dead last.

Only the Yankees hit more home runs overall than the Orioles, whose 235 home runs were the third-most in a season in club history. They were just one of four teams to have nine players with double-digit home run totals and the Diamondbacks are the only other team to have nine players with 300 plate appearances and an OPS+ of 100 or better.

Outfielder Anthony Santander finished behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in home runs, and the only switch-hitters in baseball history to hit more than his 44 home runs in a season are Mickey Mantle (twice), Lance Berkman, and Chipper Jones. Gunnar Henderson is one of the best home hitters in baseball, batting .283/.355/.554 at Camden Yards.

Catcher Adley Rutschman slumped badly in the second half, hitting just .207/.282/.303 after the break. Ryan Mountcastle has the 12th-lowest walk rate in baseball. Colton Cowser has the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 30.4 percent. Cedric Mullins hit just .196/.228/.278 against lefties.

Only Mullins, Henderson, and Cowser are stolen base threats, and the Orioles had an 80 percent success rate on steals this year. They were average in Baserunning Runs but made the third-fewest outs on the bases. Defensively, the Orioles were below average in Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average with Cowser and Mountcastle faring well, but Santander and Westburg as defensive liabilities. Rutschman is a good pitch blocker, but a below-average pitch-framer, and he threw out just 19 percent of would-be base-stealers.

Cy Young-winning Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball with the second-most fWAR since 2021 and a 2.94 ERA over that time. He finished fourth in the American League with a 2.92 ERA, but he posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career at 23.1 percent. Burnes beat the Royals in Kansas City and earned a no-decision against them in Baltimore, giving up five runs total in the two starts, but failing to get through six innings. He finished with a strong September, giving up just four earned runs in four starts for a 1.20 ERA in 30 innings. He was a bit more hittable at home than on the road with opponents hitting .260 against him at Camden Yards to .187 on the road, although his ERA splits are nearly identical. Paul DeJong is a career .318/.348/.636 hitterr against him in 23 plate apparaances.

The Orioles have yet to announce their Game 2 and 3 starters, but Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer seem likely to start. Eflin was acquired in July from the Rays, posting a 2.60 ERA in nine starts after the trade. The Royals did get him for six runs in five innings in a July 4 start against the Rays this year, although he picked up the win. Lefties actually hit him worse than righties did, batting just .225/.264/.375. Eflin is known for his curveball which has a 33 percent whiff rate, but opponents hit .291 against this year. In addition to his curve, he throws a sinker, cutter, sweeper, four-seamer, and change up, yielding a 43 percent groundball rate.

Dean Kremer missed six weeks with a tricep strain early in the year but finished strong with a 2.98 ERA over his last eight starts. He gave up three home runs and six runs in 11 innings in two starts against the Royals, losing the game in Kauffman Stadium. He gave up 12 of his 18 home runs allowed at home, and opponents hit .252 against him there, opposed to .196 on the road. He posted the highest strikeout rate of his career, generating a 36 percent whiff rate with his splitter.

The Orioles bullpen overall had a 4.22 ERA, but their 5.31 September ERA was the second-worst in baseball in the final month. Seranthony Dominguez was given closing duties in the final two months, but he was hardly shut down, with a 3.97 ERA and 5.33 FIP in 25 appearances with the Orioles. Yennier Cano may be the most trusted Orioles reliever with a groundball rate of 63 percent, third-highest in baseball, but with a large spike in his walk rate this year. Lefties hit just .192/.245/.315 against Keegan Akin. Cionel Pérez gave up nine runs in nine innings in September. Gregory Soto had a 5.09 ERA in 17 ²⁄₃ innings after the Orioles acquired him.

The Orioles are a very talented team with a dangerous lineup of hitters that can put the ball out of the ballpark at any point and a true ace in Corbin Burnes. But the pitching staff is rather thin after that with bullpen issues that have plagued the team in the second half. In a short series, anything can happen, and the Royals just might have the starting pitching, terrific defense, and team speed to pull off an upset. The road team has won the Wild Card series five times in eight tries over the last two years, there is no reason why the Royals can’t continue that trend.