Bryce Miller shines and leads a complete Mariners game one win over the Rays

Hope stays alive in the young Dan Wilson era as Seattle completes their first game decided by more than one run since he assumed the role.

Coming off of a two-of-three home series win against a Giants team now sitting 5.5 games out of a wild card spot to begin the Dan Wilson, Manager era, the Seattle Mariners had an opportunity to close some ground on the division lead with Houston taking a walk off loss in Philly today. In the series against San Francisco they were all one run outcomes. Today was the first comfortable win under Wilson, and against a Tampa Bay team who sits 7.0 games back of the wild card, and 12.5 back in their division. The Rays may have been first on the board via one of the few mistakes by Bryce Miller, but Seattle answered back immediately, and continued their answering back in the early innings.

As refreshing as it was to see the bats execute in key moments, the star of the night was far and away Mariner’s starter Bryce Miller. He finished the night with 91 pitches thrown over seven innings, gave up zero walks, tied a career single game high in strikeouts with ten, and allowed only two hits and the one earned run he surrendered would be the only Rays run all night. On top of that, Miller collected 14 whiffs on five different pitches, running a collective CSW of 34%.

Paving the way to the big Texas right hander’s success was his effective four seam that he threw for 53% and topped out at 96.3 mph, and getting the lions shares of whiffs at six. But the real hidden weapons of the night were the splitter, and more present tonight than usual, the knuckle curve, each accounting for 10% of pitches thrown and cultivating two and four whiffs, respectively.

Bryce started out making quick work in the first inning, with the first two strikeouts of Dylan Carlson looking and Brandon Lowe on a foul tip.

On the third strikeout to complete striking out the side, Miller got Junior Caminero swinging on a splitter.

Miller started out the top of the second well enough, falling to a 3-1 count against Christopher Morel but getting him to fly out to Arozarena in left. Then came up Josh Lowe aka the one Tampa Bay player to manage any hits against Miller, or any Mariners pitcher, all night long. Miller started out with a knuckle curve and two fastballs all out of the zone that Lowe sat on to start 3-0 and force Miller to come in, and after taking a sinker down and in to go 3-1, he didn’t miss when Miller landed a four seamer in the same spot next pitch and sent the ball 109.3 mph off of the bat 437 feet. Although Miller has performed to suppress some of his splits in recent performances, this home run from a left handed bat in Lowe is unsurprising given Miller’s season numbers, 14 home runs to lefties and only 4 to right handers.

Miller rebounded with efficiency to get out of the second, getting Jonny Deluca to ground out on two pitches, and then striking out old friend José Caballero in his first at bat on three pitches and swinging over a disappearing splitter for strike three.

Bryce faced the minimum in the first half of the third, and collected another strikeout. This time Taylor Walls worked to a 3-2 count, but still froze on a fastball looking.

And again the minimum in the fourth inning, and two more strikeouts for Miller. First was inning leadoff and more susceptible hitter tonight with the last name Lowe, Brandon going down swinging fooled utterly by a 1-2 knuckle curve that disappeared down and in.

And to end that inning Miller again finished off a 3-2 count with a called strike, another fastball down and away in the zone.

The top of the fifth saw Josh Lowe rear his ugly head again for Miller, this time lacing a second pitch knuckle curve just below the zone 103.8 mph into center field for a single. That would be the second and only hit for the Rays night, but not the last Rays runner. Jonny Deluca came up and traded spots with Lowe at first on a grounder up the middle that saw the out at second, and then old friend Cabby in his second at bat of the night did the same with an infield grounder that saw Deluca out at second. With Ben Rortvedt up next, and wonderful baseball menace that he is, Caballero stole second base. And then stole third base. And then Rortvedt flew out on a 3-2 fastball inside above the plate to end the inning.

The sixth saw another of facing the minimum for Miller, and another strikeout to end it, handing Brandon “Lower on the Lowe rankings tonight” Lowe his third strikeout of the night. Miller started the at bat working his heat up high and away, the first two pitches swinging strikes followed by a foul, then a fourth pitch foul on a splitter at the bottom of the zone before getting him to swing over an 0-2 knuckle curve, his second strikeout on the same pitch.

It’s no coincidence that the knuckle curve was more present tonight, and no surprise to Miller that it was more effective, as it was part of a plan to utilize the pitch more and make it a more deliberate known threat to opposing hitters, and use that knowledge along with use of the splitter to better attack batters overall.

Postgame, Miller had this to say about his knuckle curve:

“The first few weeks I had it, I probably threw less than like, five a game. I feel like I threw it in good spots and they were probably just like, “I don’t know what that was, it wasn’t on the report.” So now I’m throwing it more, it’s on the report, and I’m throwing it more behind the plate, back tip, getting it there and throwing it hard has been my approach with it. So I can go wither way underneath [with the splitter] and then go up top.”

The splitter has been a work in progress as well, and Miller also discussed a change he made two months ago with the pitch, noticing his whiffs on it going down.

“I was throwing a lot of them away to lefties, but they were up, and that plays a lot better when it’s underneath and over the plate. So I tried to get that over and under, and when I have that underneath and the curveball underneath as well, I can go either way, righties or lefties, which has opened up the bottom of the zone, which in turn opens up the top.”

Miller capped off his night in the seventh inning with yet another against the minimum, and his ninth and tenth strikeouts on the night. He started the inning tying up Juinior Caminero on a 2-2 fastball 95.7 mph at the bottom of the zone, and then got Christopher Morel in another 2-2 count swinging through a high 96 mph fastball. Miller got Josh Lowe to ground out harmlessly on a 2-2 knuckle curve well below the zone to end the inning and his night in a fitting final victory over the one batter to truly threaten him all outing.

Dan Wilson summed it up perfectly post game: “Bryce was in control tonight, and there was no stopping him”

Miller wasn’t the only one in a Mariners uniform to handle business tonight, and while the offensive production certainly didn’t overwhelm with seven hits and only one walk, they made the most of some situations to score in three different innings and have a healthy lead most of the game, and only struck out eight times as a team. Neither team was barreling up the ball with a vengeance, with Tampa posting a collective .147 xBA, and Seattle may have been more lucky in their five runs on seven hits with only a slightly better team .212 xBA, but it still amounts to timely hitting that has been all too anemic as of late.

First to get on the board for the Mariners was Jorge Polanco, answering Josh Lowe’s second run home run with one of his own, punishing a middle middle fastball from Rays starter Ryan Pepiot. Polanco hit it hard enough off the bad at 110.1 mph, but he scooped it as right field as you can without it being foul, hitting off of the pole mere feet above the line at the top of the wall below it. At 341 feet, the shortest home run at T-Mobile Park all season.

With two outs, Josh Rojas would single and steal second that inning, but a strikeout from Dominic Canzone ended the inning right after. The bottom of the third inning rolled around for the Mariners and a Rivas groundout and Raley fly out had them quickly to two outs, but they would prove scrappy and make the most of the opportunities around the corner. Julio reached on an error from Caballero, unable to get his glove on the 1-1 changeup Rodríguez turned around to third. Cal Raleigh only needed to see two pitches before hitting the softest of ground balls to third base. A sluggish 31 mph off of the bat, casually rolling it’s way to touching third base and letting Julio and Cal both reach second and first safely.

Which opened the door for Randy Arozarena to swat a two out, three run, first pitch home run 104.2 mph and 376 ft to right field. A home run in 25/30 ballparks and his first as a Mariner at T-Mobile Park, with an .880 xBA and 104.2 off of the bat, a welcome sight from recently slump-be-woed newer arrival to the Mariners.

Randy Arozarena, on going oppo:

Josh Rojas would reach base for the second time in the bottom of the fourth, the only Mariner with a multi-hit night. This time he worked a one out, 1-2 inside cutter for a double to right field. Dominic Canzone would follow another Rojas hit with an out, but a more productive one, grounding out to Morel but moving Rojas to third with two outs. This opened the door for Leo Rivas to collect an RBI, rightfully punishing a 2-2 middle-middle cutter from Pepiot.

Luke Raley immediately doubled to right field, moving Rivas to third and proving Randy isn’t the only one capable of striking out against his former team, but Julio flew out to deep right ending the inning. They would threaten in the next inning, or rather they perhaps felt more threatened. Ryan Pepiot bounced a pitch off Raleigh’s back foot with the first pitch of the inning, then after going 2-2 against Arozarena, left one up and in off his shoulder to put runners on first and second with no outs. A Polanco GIDP moved Raleigh to third with two outs, and a Justin Turner ground out ended the threat of Mariners scoring or Mariners being hit by pitches. Outside of a 3-1 walk from Canzone in the sixth, the only Mariners walk, Seattle went down quietly the rest of the night, against former friend Erasmo Ramírez working the seventh and eighth, but the lead would be enough.

Austin Voth and Trent Thornton serviced Miller’s stellar outing with clean ones of their own. Voth faced the minimum in the top of the eighth, and collected a strikeout against Caballero, getting him to swing over a 2-2 curveball.

Trent Thornton came in to finish the job in the ninth, and managed two strikeouts. First Taylor Walls on a seventh pitch, 2-2 slider finally getting Walls to swing through instead of fouling off. Then got ahead of Dylan Carlson 0-2 before he worked it full, and went down swinging on a seventh pitch fastball inside the zone. A Brandon “0-for-4” Lowe groundout later and the Mariners secured the 5-1 win at home to start the three game set against the Rays.

With the win over the Rays, the Mariners move up one game to 3.5 games back of the Houston Astros in the division, and 5.5 games behind a wild card spot. With a little more than a month of play left, momentum is critical. Today was a necessary showing from a Mariners team that has sowed doubt in every corner of their game recently, even those once thought invincible. Today, it all showed up. Lights out starting pitching, shutdown relief, and timely and effective hitting to secure a game one win and set a tone for the series. More importantly, as we take the first steps of the era of Dan the Man(ager) and the last of the season, the Mariners have an opportunity to carry that momentum from this series into games against teams far further out of contention in division dwellers the Angels and A’s. Of course they still have to finish strong against the Rays in games two and three first, but if they can do more of the same of what they did today in a complete team win, fate will remain in their hands when they reach the tougher end of September.