Series Preview: Mets Host the Young and Hungry Orioles

After winning their latest series against the Marlins, the New York Mets (64-60) will continue their August homestand as they hose the Baltimore Orioles (73-52) for three games.

The Mets sit two games behind the Braves in the Wild Card race for the third spot. These upcoming games will continue to be of great importance for the Mets, as the margin for error will decrease as the end of the season gets closer.

As for the Orioles, they are looking to figure out their postseason fate. The O’s and Yankees are tied for the best record in the American League East, so they are looking to avoid a Wild Card placement as the postseason approaches.

This series will conclude the homestand for the Mets, as they will venture out to San Diego and Arizona with no off days in between. Therefore, the Mets should take advantage of the home crowd now since they won’t return to Citi Field until September.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups for this series!

Monday, August 19, 2024: LHP Trevor Rogers (2-11, 4.89 ERA) vs. David Peterson (7-1, 3.04 ERA)

Trevor Rogers has struggled mightily since being traded to the Orioles, allowing 12 earned runs across three starts. He has allowed an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph, a common theme for him this season. He is in the 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in that category, with a figure of 90.6 mph for the season. His struggles have extended to control, where he has walked 9.8 percent of opposing batters. Rogers had one of his better outings against the Mets in late July when he allowed two runs over 4 2/3 innings.

David Peterson continues to put up strong numbers, most recently tossing 6 1/3 shutout frames against the Athletics. Peterson has a 2.43 ERA in his last six starts, along with an elite 52.7 percent ground ball rate. Despite not being favored by some advanced statistics (he has just a 0.5 fWAR on the season), his 53.3 percent ground ball rate makes up for it. To put this into perspective, if Peterson allows hard contact, he might not be as susceptible to its adverse effects, as he mainly allows ground balls.

Tuesday, August 20, 2024: RHP Dean Kremer (5-9, 4.48 ERA) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (6-8, 4.26 ERA)

Dean Kremer offers a five-pitch mix headlined by a four-seamer and cutter. Kremer was effective in his latest outing, allowing one run over six innings. However, that is not the usual output for Kremer, who has struggled to remain consistent this season. He has been plagued by barrels, allowing them at a 10.4 percent clip this year. The Mets should be able to capitalize on his high fastball usage Tuesday.

Jose Quintana was not very effective in his last start, allowing four runs in as many innings. Quintana has a 5.29 ERA in his previous six starts, along with an uninspiring 37.8 percent ground ball rate. He has been largely inconsistent this season, so his recent struggles might not hold much weight heading into the game on Tuesday.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024: RHP Zach Eflin (9-7, 3.72 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (9-5, 3.46 ERA)

Zach Eflin mainly deploys a sinker and cutter, among other pitches, and he controls them all very well. He has just a 2.7 percent walk rate, which is good for the 99th percentile. Further, he has excelled in getting batters to chase with his 32.9 percent chase rate. Eflin is a tough pitcher to face because his pitches generate a lot of movement, and he can keep them in the zone.

Sean Manaea has continued his excellent stretch, with a 2.51 ERA in his last five starts. He has stepped up in a big way for the Mets as they continue to navigate through this difficult stretch of games. The interesting thing about Manaea’s success is that he has done it with a low ground ball rate and average strikeout rate. He looks to continue this success against a formidable Orioles lineup.

Players to Watch

Pete Alonso (NYM)

Pete Alonso has been heating up recently, crushing two home runs in his last five games. He has a 12.5 percent barrel rate in 2024, showcasing his home run potential. Further, he has hit the Orioles well over the years, with five home runs in 11 games against them in his career.

Gunnar Henderson (BAL)

Gunnar Henderson has been on a tear recently, smashing four home runs in his last five games. The young slugger has been sensational this season, batting .288/.374/.562 with 33 home runs to complement his strong baserunning skills. His unique combination of a low chase rate of 21.8 percent and a high hard-hit rate of 55.4 percent make him a nightmare for opposing pitchers.

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