The oddity that is Freddy Fermin

Catchers do not establish themselves late at this age, but so far Freddy Fermin is bucking the trend.

Freddy Fermin came up to little fanfare in 2023 and then proceeded to be an above-average hitter and post 1.9 fWAR in just 70 games. He was 28 years old. Catchers rarely come up that late in their career. Since 1930 only 42 catchers have gotten their first year over 200 plate appearances at that age or older. That means only once every couple of years does a team bring up this old of a catcher and play him a significant amount. When it does happen, it tends to not go very well. Only 16 of them were worth 1 win or more in that season. Only one of those 42 went on to have a reasonably accomplished career. And yet, Fermin has backed last year up by hitting about the same and continuing to play good defense, so maybe he is the second of the 42 who will become more than you would expect.

The first catcher to be this old coming up and really put together a solid career was Carlos Ruiz. If you don’t remember Ruiz, he came up for Philadelphia in 2006 and was a mainstay as there starting catcher for through 2014. In 2015 he struggled and lost the job then bounced around the league for two more years. He had a 4.5fWAR season and was an All-Star in 2012 as a 33 year old. He received MVP votes in 3 seasons. His career fWAR was 12.6, bWAR likes him a lot more at 22.5 wins. That is by far the most success this old rookie catcher group has seen.

Going into 2024, Fermin’s projections didn’t hate him. ZIPS had him at a 94 wRC+, a drop of 14 from the year before, and 1.2 fWAR. For a backup catcher that gets limited playing time, that is actually decent production. Instead, Freddy had actually hit slightly better this year at a 112 wRC+, though that may be a bit BABIP-driven. His expected stats say he should not be doing nearly this well, it is especially harsh on his slugging. The only backup catcher ahead of him on the WAR leaderboards is Jose Trevino, and that is only by Fangraphs WAR not Baseball Reference.

You can see why his xBA and xSLG are not good. His average exit velocity is pedestrian and his barrel/hard hit/sweet spot% are all in the bottom quartile. He also chases too much and doesn’t really walk. That sounds like the recipe for a batter that is going to struggle, and yet he mostly has not over the better part of two seasons.

I have thought more about catcher than most of the other Royals positions the last several years. My worries that Salvy might age poorly have been unfounded so far. Now Fermin has stepped in to solidify the second catcher position until the reinforcements arrive. Carter Jensen has had a very good season in the minors. At High-A ball he hit well and walked 15.2% of the time while only striking out a 22.1% rate. The transition to Double-A seems to be going well so far too, though he has only played 12 games so far. I do not know if Freddy Fermin can continue doing what he is doing, but I do know that when Jensen is ready he should not be allowed to stand in the way. A 20-year-old playing well in Northwest Arkansas is impressive. Can He be ready sometime next season? I tend to think 2026 is more realistic, but it could happen.

That makes the obvious question, should Fermin be traded and when? If the plan is to start Jensen in Double-A again next season, which is what I would assume, then maybe they keep Freddy for one more year. The value of a catcher who turns 30 next year is not going to improve over time however. If anyone sees him as a potential starter due to his performance this year and last, then I think you have to trade him this offseason. That may lead in a drop in production at catcher in the short term, but it would maximize the value to the team in the longer term. The free agents that will be available at catcher are modest at best for the coming year. I’m starting to think moving him would be the right choice.

Old catchers are always a bit of gamble, and when they make the majors as late as Freddy Fermin did, the upside is minimal. Betting on him being the one who establishes himself as a front-line catcher is very risky, and his underlying hitting numbers are not great despite his results being pretty solid. I am very glad he has been a part of the team the last two seasons, and I hope his career is long and fruitful, but I also hope the Royals move on from him before age and performance drive his value down.