Cardinals series preview: A Show-Me showdown with a lot on the line

The Royals are the best team in Missouri right now.

The Royals and Cardinals have matched up against each other each year since interleague play began in 1998. Typically, Cardinals fans flood Kauffman Stadium, razz Royals fans for their lousy team while the Cardinals are once again in the hunt, march out of here with a few wins (the Royals are 23-45 against the Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium in the regular season), and all Royals fans can do is bring up 1985 (Orta was safe!)

But this year could be a bit different. The Royals already swept the Cardinals in St. Louis and now host the series with a better record than the Cardinals, much better positioned for a post-season appearance. The Cardinals have dropped 8 of their last 13 and are hovering above .500, needing to play well down the stretch to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1994-95.

St. Louis Cardinals (59-57) vs. Kansas City Royals (64-52) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Cardinals: 4.15 runs scored/game (24th in MLB), 4.54 runs allowed/game (21st)

Royals: 4.78 runs scored/game (10th), 3.97 runs allowed/game (4th)

This will be a rare two-game weekend series, with an off-day on Sunday. The Cardinals are 16-13 in interleague play and have a 28-30 record on the road. They’re one of the best teams in baseball in one-run games, going 22-15, suggesting some good fortune - they’re Pythagorean win/loss record is 53-63.

Cardinals hitters have the seventh-lowest walk rate and the eighth-fewest home runs. They don’t steal a lot of bases - only eight teams have fewer steals. Defensively, they have given up more steals than any team except the Giants, throwing out just 14 percent of attempts. Shortstop Masyn Winn is among the leaders in Defensive Runs Saved, but otherwise Cardinals defenders are average to below-average.

Alec Burleson has been a righty-masher this year, batting .305/.343/.527 against them. He puts the ball in play with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball at 12.3 percent and the ninth-lowest walk rate at 4.5 percent. Nolan Gorman is hitting .140/.197/.298 over his last 18 games and he has the highest strikeout rate (37.1 percent) in baseball overall. Tommy Pham is hitting 11-for-31 (.355) with two home runs since the Cardinals reacquired him.

Veterans Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are not the All-Stars they once were. Arenado is still a terrific fielder, but he has the ninth-lowest hard-hit rate in baseball. Goldschmidt was MVP in 2022 with a league-leading .578 slugging percentage, but that has fallen to just .382 this year.

Miles Mikolas has the lowest strikeout rate of any qualified starter, but the fourth-lowest walk rate. He lasted just four innings, giving up four runs against the Cubs in his last outing, and he has a 6.14 ERA in his last eight starts. He has a deep arsenal of pitches, but his slider has been hit hard with an opponent’s average of .328.

Andre Pallante gave up four runs in 6 ¹⁄₃ innings in a loss to the Royals back on July 10. He did not pitch more than five innings in either of his last two starts. He is a groundball pitcher who doesn’t give up many home runs - his 62.5 percent groundball rate is tops among any pitcher with 60 innings pitched. He also has a fairly hittable slider, but also features a knuckle curve with a 35 percent whiff rate.

The Cardinals bullpen has a 3.67 ERA, ninth-lowest in baseball, with the second-lowest walk rate, but the sixth-lowest strikeout rate. All-Star closer Ryan Helsley leads all of baseball in saves, converting 36-of-39 opportunities. He has struggled this month, blowing a lead against the Cubs last week and giving up seven hits and two walks to the 20 batters he has faced this month. Lefties are hitting just .175/.230/.246 against JoJo Romero. Rookie Kyle Leahy has the ninth-lowest strikeout rate among qualified relievers and has the third-highest hard-hit rate. Lefty John King has the seventh-lowest walk rate and the sixth-highest groundball rate.

The Royals are in the middle of a stretch where they will get challenged a lot against teams hunting for a post-season spot. The Cardinals have a talented roster, but their record has not reflected that this year. The Royals have a chance to catapult themselves and shove their rivals out of contention. For Royals fans tired of Cardinals fans filling the K, that would be the best of both worlds.