Trade Profile: Jack Flaherty, SP

Jack Flaherty

Position: Pitcher B/T: R/R

Age: 28 (October 15, 1995)

2024 Traditional Stats: 18 G, 106.2 IP, 7-5,  2.95 ERA,  0.956 WHIP,  133 SO,  19 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 142 ERA+, 32.1% SO%, 4.6% BB%, .293 xERA, 3.10 FIP, 2.55 xFIP,  2.5 fWAR,  bWAR 2.8

Rundown

Jack Flaherty, one of the best starting pitchers available, is expected to be moved by the Detroit Tigers over the next couple of days as the July 30 trade deadline creeps closer. 

The 28-year old was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft and has been on three teams during his eight year major-league career. He made his debut with the St. Louis Cardinals in September of 2017 against the San Francisco Giants and has gone on to a 3.64 career ERA over 149 games. In 2023, the St. Louis Cardinals traded Flaherty to the Baltimore Orioles and struggled posting a 6.75 ERA over nine starts.

Prior to the start of the 2024 season, back in December of 2023 Flaherty signed a one-year deal worth $14 million with the Tigers and has quietly had one of the best years of his career. Over the course of 18 starts, Flaherty has a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts. He is able to create a lot of swing and misses with a devastating slider, and has one of the best breaking run value (95th percentile) per Baseball Savant.

Flaherty has had an excellent month of July posting a 1.53 ERA in three starts and has struck out 18 over 17 2/3 innings. One of the most impressive attributes for Flaherty is his walk rate, and with a 4.6% BB he is able to command the zone to get ahead with no struggles putting away hitters.

It is important to note the amount of innings Flaherty has pitched this year thus far in comparison to past seasons. In his first seven seasons, he has reached over 140 innings three times and in 2024 he is currently at 106 2/3 innings. The Mets plan for when Kodai Senga came back was to move to a six-man rotation to limit the starting pitchers innings, and this can be an ideal situation for Flaherty if the Mets were to acquire him.

Package

Given Flaherty is on a one-year deal with the Tigers, he would be a rental. He is one of the best starting pitchers available at the deadline, and with many teams in need of arms his value is going to be high.

Keeping this in mind, the return for Flaherty will likely require multiple Mets prospects.

Proposed Deal

Mets Receive

• Jack Flaherty

Tigers Receive:

• RHP Nolan McLean (MMO’s 14th-ranked prospect)
• RHP Kade Morris (MMO’s 24th-ranked prospect)
• C Ronald Hernandez (MMO’s 27th-ranked prospect)

Recommendation

There is a long list of teams that are going after Flaherty and it will take a big trade to acquire him. If the Mets were to offer a player within the top 10 of their prospect rankings it may come down to only sending two players to Detroit instead of three.

With Kodai Senga’s recent calf strain Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that he will most likely be done for the remainder of the season, making the deadline a little more difficult for president of baseball operations David Stearns. They have had quality outings from the likes of Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana, but Flaherty would be able to provide support for the top of the rotation.

For the Mets it may be beneficial that the Tigers would be sending Flaherty to a National League team as opposed to either a division rival or another American League team competing for a playoff spot. Now is the time that the front office goes for it, as it has been reported this weekend that is the vibe for the Mets in the coming days. Flaherty is still scheduled to pitch for the Tigers the day before the deadline on against the Cleveland Guardians, so it is probable that the Tigers get a deal in place prior to Monday’s game.

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