Is Bobby Witt having the greatest season in Royals history?
Is Bobby Witt Jr. putting up a better season than 1980 George Brett?
Bobby Witt Jr. is on an incredible tear. Through 15 games this July he is slashing .508/.523/.932 for an absurd 296 wRC+. He has 30 hits, that’s two per game, and 12 of them are for extra bases. Also, he has passed Aaron Judge on the Fangraphs WAR leaderboard. I am not sure that I have ever looked at the WAR leaderboard and seen a Royals hitter number one in the second half of a season.
For a lot of teams it might be hard to define what is the best season of all-time. For the Royals, George Brett’s 1980 chase for .400 is the benchmark. You could maybe make an argument for his 1979 or 1985 seasons along with Zack Greinke’s 2009, which was truly amazing. Still, I think Brett’s 1980 season reigns supreme in both statistics and from a Paul Bunyan-esque sort of lore. George in 1985 was hindered by defensive statistics as he was aging, so maybe if I squint I could turn that into a point in that season’s favor, but 1980 is still more impressive in almost every single way plus he did it in 117 games as opposed to 155. On a per game basis, 1980 was truly ridiculous.
Bobby Witt Jr. is currently hitting .341/.387/.592 with 18 HR and 22 SB with 6.2 rWAR. He is on pace to finish with 29 HR 35 SB and 9.9 rWAR.
In the 56 MLB seasons that the Royals have been a part of, including 2024, the lowest games per fWAR (non-negative) belongs to Barry Bonds in 2002 when he was able to accumulate one win every 11.27 games. Second, third, and fourth places all belong to Barry Bonds. He set all four of those in consecutive years from 2001 to 2004. In the non-Bonds division the number one spot belongs to George Brett in 1980. He has possibly the best per game production ever in modern baseball if you omit steroid-era Bonds due to cheating. George was putting up one fWAR every 12.87 games, which is on pace for 12.59 WAR in 162 games. Again, he only played 117 so he only ended up with a touch over 9 wins, 9.4 if you prefer bWAR.
Bobby Witt Jr. is on pace to take down those 9 wins. He is number one in baseball for fWAR at 6.7 and third in bWAR at 6.2. We are 101 games in and Bobby has played 101 games, so he may play every game this season. That puts him on pace for 1 win every 15.15 games and a full season fWAR of 10.69, which would definitely be the best WAR season for a Royal ever. By bWAR I don’t have as many decimals, it would be closer to 9.9 or 10.0, but still clearly the highest.
WAR is not the end-all, be-all, especially with the changes in how we measure stuff over time. On a per-game basis, Bobby has no shot of matching up to 1980 George Brett, but availability matters. George missed those games and it is possible that it affected the race, though since they went to the World Series, maybe it matters less, but it could have. The chase for .400 also changes how that season is viewed. History and baseball are intertwined, and I want them to be, so you can try to wave off the significance of .400, I just don’t think you should. Bobby is not chasing any of the big historic records or accomplishments. It is not going to feel the same as that season did, for those that can remember it (I cannot as I was not quite born yet).
What Bobby does have going for him is that he is the best player on a team experiencing one of the best turnaround seasons ever. This offense without Witt Jr. would be...actually I don’t want to know what it would be. Not good for sure. Salvador Perez has had a nice year, but has cooled off and he is really the only other hitter that has been in the lineup most days and consistently productive. Vinnie has been good at times, Massey has been when healthy, but really Bobby is the only top-tier hitter on this team. I think that may make a difference come MVP voting time since Aaron Judge has Juan Soto and Gunnar Henderson has tons of support in the Orioles lineup.
Bobby is the best defender in baseball, or very close, depending on how you want to measure it. The all-around nature of his awesomeness is also a big plus in his favor. The starting pitchers, though they have been really good, do owe some of the credit to this infield defensive unit for sure.
At the end of 2024, I don’t think very many Royals fans will be ready to say this was the best season of all time. It is hard to overcome nostalgia and lore, which George Brett has and deserves. I do think that 15 to 20 years from now, if Bobby has become an inner circle HOFer that this discussion could become a very different one. If this team finds its way into the playoffs and makes a run, that could help a lot too. I do not want to proclaim right now that this is going to be the best season ever, but I do think it is a possibility and I hope everyone can take in the majesty that is 2024 Bobby Witt Jr.