Trade Profile: Paul Sewald, RP

Paul Sewald

Position: RP B/T: R/R
Age: 34 (05/26/1990)

2024 Traditional Stats: 24 G, 21.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 0.797 WHIP, 0-2, 20 K, 4 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 122 ERA+, 24.4% K%, 4.9% BB%, 3.77 xERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.28 xFIP, 0.1 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR

Rundown

There was a time when Paul Sewald was a Persona non grata inside the confines of Citi Field. Sure, that was a bit of a product of his undoing in how he reacted upon his return to Queens, but with the boos that rained down on him and how he was often misused, it’s understandable.

There are hard feelings. And Sewald has every right to feel the way he does, especially after jawing with some Mets fans during his most recent trip back to Citi. But with the Mets needing a shot in the arm—or a few—in a beleaguered bullpen, Sewald presents himself as a viable backend option for a team in search of a late-inning anchor. The only problem here, aside from the mixed response it would be received, is Arizona entered the All-Star Break just two games back of the Mets in the loss column.

It remains to be seen if the Diamondbacks will buy or sell, but they could certainly consider some offers on a 34-year-old closer with an expiring contract, especially if they stumble out of the break. (They won two of three this weekend over the Cubs and face the Royals, Pirates and Nationals leading up to the deadline.)

A 10th-round pick in 2012, Sewald debuted with the Mets in 2017. Sewald made a combined 103 appearances in the big leagues over his first two seasons, but an ERA over six and a 0-13 win-loss record to start his career didn’t exactly place him in great standing. He was designated for an assignment in 2019, only to have his contract selected again later that season.

Sewald struggled through 22 appearances with the Mets from 2019 to 2020. However, a breakthrough came in 2019 when he finally earned his first MLB win, snapping a 118-appearance losing streak, the second-longest in baseball history.

The Mets non-tendered Sewald following a COVID-shortened season after 125 appearances and 5.50 ERA. He later signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners, where he revived a career that once looked washed away. Sewald has appeared in at least 60 games in the past three seasons, having the best year of his career in 2022. Sewald posted a career-best 2.67 ERA in 64 innings in his second full season as a Mariner, striking out 72 batters and recording 20 saves, though he did allow a career-high 10 home runs in the process. He was then traded to the Diamondbacks in the middle of the 2023 season.

The 34-year-old Sewald returned strongly from a month-long oblique injury to begin the 2024 season. He converted 11 consecutive save opportunities before hitting a rough patch with three blown saves in a row. However, Sewald has rebounded with back-to-back saves for Arizona.

Despite facing increased offensive pressure this year, with career-highs in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate against him, Sewald has maintained solid numbers. In 21 1/3 innings, he owns a 3.38 ERA, 20 strikeouts, and a stingy .600 OPS against.

While not overpowering, his strikeout rate has been consistent, and his ability to limit walks has been crucial to his effectiveness. While his ERA has fluctuated throughout his career, his underlying metrics suggest he’s a reliable reliever capable of handling high-leverage situations.

PACKAGE

After 2024, Sewalad will become a free agent. It’s hard to imagine that Sewald would command some of the Mets’ most highly-touted prospects, being that he’s on a 1-year, $7.35 million deal. The Mets can take on all of his money. At the same time, with the market being heavy on relief pitching needs, the Diamondbacks will be able to get a viable package for their closer.

While Sewald is a year older, he’s just a calendar year removed from being traded to Arizona for Ryan Bliss, Dominic Canzone, and Josh Rojas. The Diamondbacks likely won’t do as well here, but it certainly begs the question if the Mets are willing to meet a similar asking price.

Mets Receive:

• RHP Paul Sewald

Diamondbacks Receive:

• RHP Mike Vasil (No. 11, MLB Pipeline)
• 1B JT Schwartz

RECOMMENDATION

The Mets’ bullpen woes continue despite acquiring Phil Maton from the Rays earlier this season. The relief corps has been an absolute disaster since the start of July, owning the worst ERA in the majors at 7.49.

The team’s bullpen is in dire need of reinforcements, and Sewald represents a proven, reliable option that can stabilize the back end of their bullpen.

While giving a good prospect in Vasil isn’t ideal, the Mets’ desperate need for bullpen help outweighs the potential future returns of these players, especially with how the Mets have made strides in developing pitchers over the last two seasons.

Sewald’s immediate impact on the team could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

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