2024 Mets Trade Deadline Preview

The 2024 Mets begin early July in a spot not many expected them to be in just four weeks ago: a legitimate player in a weak but crowded NL Wild Card picture. The Mets appeared dead in the water following a 9-19 month of May and stood at 24-35 on June 3. Since then, however, the Mets have gone 18-8 and find themselves as postseason contenders.

The Mets head to Pittsburgh at 42-43 and 2 1/2 games back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot. They also sit three games back of the San Diego Padres for the second spot and five back of the Atlanta Braves for the first Wild Card spot.

The Mets powered their way through the month of June on their way to baseball’s best record during that month. The offense ambushed pitching from all angles as the team posted a triple-slash line of .283/.358/.507 (.865 OPS). Most notably, catcher Francisco Alvarez returned from the injured list and posted an OPS of 1.021 with three homers. However, their bullpen reared its ugly head again and allowed six runs on Sunday against the Astros after allowing five on Saturday, and has yet to find stability since.

As the Mets enter July, president of baseball operations David Stearns has alluded to the possibility that the team could be “buyers” before the July 30 deadline, so long as the team remains in contention. The Mets, despite their incredibly hot month, still have multiple areas of need entering July.

The Bullpen

Internal Review

The Mets’ bullpen has been hit by injuries lately, highlighted by Drew Smith saying that he has “significant ligament damage” in his elbow that may keep him out for the rest of the 2024 campaign. Smith was the second Met reliever to hit the injured list in the final 10 days of June, joining Sean Reid-Foley. Before going down with a shoulder impingement, Reid-Foley had posted a 1.66 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings. He is a candidate to return after the All-Star break.

Along with injuries, the Mets’ bullpen has also suffered from underperforming veterans. The Mets were optimistic that Jake Diekman and Adam Ottavino could bridge the gap to Edwin Díaz, but that hasn’t worked. Ottavino has been completely removed from the back end of the Mets’ bullpen, largely thanks to his 4.54 ERA over 33 2/3 innings. Díaz, currently amidst a 10-game “sticky stuff” suspension, has largely struggled when on the field. His 4.70 ERA is the worst since his brutal 2019 season, and his K/9 of 12.9 is over four strikeouts lower than his 2022 figure of 17.1. Much like Ottavino, Diekman has disappointed with a 4.73 ERA and a BB/9 rate of 7.1.

The likes of Adrian Houser, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Núñez and the aforementioned Reid-Foley have all proven to be solid options at different points for the Mets. However, the team desperately needs a shutdown reliever in this group alongside Díaz, assuming he can regain his form from earlier in the season when he returns from suspension.

Potential Trade Targets

Thankfully for the Mets, the relief market should be healthy at this year’s trading deadline. The group is headlined by Mason Miller, an all-world closer for the lowly Oakland Athletics. While the A’s don’t necessarily appear primed to trade Miller, the trade deadline can change everything. After Miller, veterans such as Miami’s LHP Tanner Scott, Toronto’s RHP Yimi Garcia, Washington’s RHPs Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey, Texas’ RHPs David Robertson and Kirby Yates, Los Angeles’ RHP Carlos Estevez and Arizona’s RHP Paul Sewald are all pending free agents on teams who may sell at the deadline.

Sewald and Robertson would be welcomed reunions for the Mets. Sewald began the year on the injured list with an oblique strain but has been lights out for the Diamondbacks since his return in early May. In his 17 games thus far, he has posted a 1.56 ERA over 17 1/3 innings to go with an astonishing WHIP of 0.63.

Robertson has not enjoyed the same level of success as Sewald, but has been healthy all season and is turning in another dependable season. Across 33 outings, he has posted a 3.34 ERA with 54 strikeouts. Robertson signed a one-year deal with the reigning world champion Texas Rangers but will find himself a popular name at the deadline for the third year in a row.

In Washington, Finnegan and Harvey both have club control through the 2026 season and provide short-term and long-term answers for the Mets. Finnegan, 32, has been a strong piece for the Nationals since debuting during the 2020 season. He owns a career 3.32 ERA over 263 career appearances while enjoying the best start of his career in 2024. His ERA currently sits at 1.98, thanks in part to a substantial rise in strikeouts (9.66 K/9). Harvey, now in his third season with Washington, owned a 3.40 ERA over 37 appearances before the Mets roughed him up in extra innings on Monday night. Following the series with New York, it now comes in at 4.32.

Starting Pitching

Internal Review

The Mets have had an up-and-down relationship with starting pitching this year. Kodai Senga, the ace of the Mets and a 2023 All-Star, has yet to throw a pitch in the big leagues this year after suffering a shoulder injury during spring training. He did begin a rehab assignment on Wednesday with High-A Brooklyn however, going 2 2/3 innings while not allowing a base runner and striking out six. Senga’s return would be massive for the Mets, who are set to return to a six-man rotation before the All-Star break.

Senga would slot in at the top of the Mets’ rotation, right above a pair of successful signings for the Mets in Luis Severino and Sean Manaea. Severino and Manaea guided the club through some rough waters to begin the year and have both settled in nicely and are proving to be worthwhile investments.

Behind Severino and Manaea has been three returning starters from 2023: Jose Quintana, David Peterson, and Tylor Megill. While all three have flashed promise at times this year, none of them have solidified themselves as a legitimate piece for the Mets. Quintana, who turned in an incredibly strong second half of 2023, has managed a 4.22 ERA over 89 2/3 innings in 17 starts. Quintana’s best three-start stretch was his three most recent against the Cubs, Astros and Nationals, in which he allowed just three runs, one unearned, in 17 1/3 innings.

Megill was roughed up again in his start on Saturday against the Astros, allowing four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. In his start prior, Megill allowed six earned in three innings at Wrigley Field. Megill was returned to Syracuse following his start against the Astros to make room for an extra reliever.

Peterson’s ERA of 3.51 is the best of the bunch, but his WHIP sits at 1.44 and his K/9 has crashed from 10.4 to 5.94, which is accompanied by his BB/9 of 3.78. There is reason to be concerned about what lies ahead of Peterson.

The ultimate wild card, no pun intended, in all of this, is rookie Christian Scott. Scott has become a consensus top-5o prospect in baseball, and could be the Mets’ secret weapon. In his first five starts for the Mets this year, Scott posted a 3.90 ERA and WHIP of 1.084 before being demoted to Syracuse to limit his innings as the Mets progressed in the season.

The former Florida Gator made his return to the Mets rotation on Wednesday and seemed to be cruising, but he might have been left in a batter too long as he gave up a three-run homer to his final batter of the game, leaving him with four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. If Scott can pitch to the level many believe he can, he could become the third or fourth-best starter on the Mets heading into August.

Behind Scott is Jose Buttó, who impressed early on for the Mets. In seven starts, Buttó posted a 3.08 ERA with 38 strikeouts in exactly 38 innings. The Mets recently recalled Buttó from Syracuse to bring out of the bullpen, but the Mets might try to use him in mainly long relief roles to keep him stretched out in case that he is needed as a starter.

The Mets could use another starter on the level of Severino and Manaea or higher if they aim for a legitimate playoff run. Only Senga remains on a guaranteed major league contract for 2025, which could drive the Mets to try to find a starter under contract for 2024 and beyond.

Potential Trade Targets

White Sox starter Garrett Crochet will be at the top of the market, as he still has three more years of team control after 2024. The 6’6″ lefty has posted a 3.02 ERA through 18 starts this year, and has struck out an impressive 141 hitters in 101 1/3 innings, equaling out to a 12.52 K/9. Crochet, however, will be highly coveted by most teams needing a starter and will be the hottest name available this month.

To find more starters under contract who could be available, look north of the border to the Blue Jays. A pair of right-handed starters, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt, could be available as the Jays look to either shed money from their payroll, begin a rebuild, or both. Bassitt and Berrios have been steady for the Blue Jays this year. Berrios, 30, is a former Twin who has played with several current and former Mets on team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. The veteran has posted a 3.63 ERA this year and is signed through the 2028 season at an average annual value of roughly $18.75 million. Along with his solid ERA, Berrios is walking just 2.31 batters per nine innings and is averaging just over six innings per outing.

Berrios, if made available, could find himself to a situation where only a few teams have both the finances and prospect capability to bring him in, and the Mets have both. Bassitt, on the other hand, has posted a 3.43 ERA over 17 starts. Bassitt is locked in through the 2025 season at $21 million annually. His walks are up from his year with the Mets, but the veteran righty remains consistent in his production and would be a welcome addition for the Mets.

Beyond the Blue Jays’ starters, Erick Fedde of the White Sox could make sense for the Mets. New York was said to have been one of the finalists for the former National before he joined the north side team. Stearns’ prior interest in Fedde could lead him to bring in the former KBO standout, revitalizing his overseas career. Fedde has 2025 left on his contract at an average annual value of $7.5 million. Lefty Tyler Anderson of the Angels could become available as well, and is under contract in 2025 for $13 million. The veteran lefty is having a major bounce-back year, posting a 3.03 ERA over 17 starts.

Offensive Depth

In-House Review

The Mets’ offense ended June with a team OPS of .860, but they still have a few holes. While Starling Marte has enjoyed a solid bounce-back year with a .744 OPS, he now finds himself on the injured list again with no concrete timetable for a return. The Mets selected the contract of veteran outfielder Ben Gamel in his absence, but that roster spot could become one the Mets look to fill on the trade market.

The Mets have received strong performances from almost every position on the field, but there is one key omission: second base. Jeff McNeil is having, by far, the worst season of his career. After a strong end to the 2023 season, McNeil’s OPS sits below .600. Latin pop star Candelita, better known as Mets infielder Jose Iglesias, already has three games of three or more hits and owns a .882 OPS in a smaller sample size of just 52 at-bats.

Including Marte, the Mets are currently rostering 11 hitters who own a wRC+ of 100 or higher over at least 40 plate appearances. Putting all of this together, the Mets have a strong starting lineup and a bench that is producing, but there remain two clear places for upgrade: second base and an additional bat off the bench, preferably an outfielder. Luckily for the Mets, these are two spots where the trade market is relatively deep.

Potential Trade Targets

The second base market could find itself led by the Cincinnati Reds’ Jonathan India, who ranks fifth in fWAR among qualified players at the position this season.

India is under club control through 2027 and is owed $5 million for the 2025 season in his second year of arbitration. India took the National League by storm during his 2021 rookie campaign, posting a .835 OPS on his way to earning National League Rookie of the Year honors. Since then, he has been somewhat underwhelming. He posted a wRC+ of 96 and 99 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, but has turned it around this year. The former Florida Gator has put up a .798 OPS through 80 games and is on pace to surpass his 2021 fWAR mark of 3.4. Although his power might not be what it was at the beginning of his career, India has made up for it with a .383 OBP, the highest of his career.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has enjoyed a solid year with the Toronto Blue Jays and could become an important piece for a contender. He has primarily played second and third base in Toronto, but has experience at every position on the field aside from first base. Kiner-Falefa has more than held his own with the bat, posting a .758 OPS with 7 homers through 82 games.

IKF could figure into the Mets’ second base rotation or become a super-utility man for the club down the stretch. However, his availability at the deadline will greatly depend on his health, as he was placed on the injured list on Tuesday with a knee injury.

Luis Rengifo of the Los Angeles Angels could also be an option for the Mets, but the veteran is more of a third baseman than a second baseman. However, a .811 OPS with 21 stolen bases is attractive to any team. He is also banged up at the moment, though the extent of his injury is unknown.

As for an outfielder and a bat off the bench, the Mets could go a number of ways here. Options include OF Kevin Pillar, INF Paul DeJong, OF/1B Mark Canha, OF Michael Conforto, OF Tommy Pham, INF Brendan Rogers, OF/1B Gavin Sheets, OF Ian Happ, 1B Rowdy Tellez, INF Luis Garcia, OF Bryan De La Cruz, OF/DH Jesse Winker, OF Taylor Ward, 1B/OF Connor Joe, and several others.

Thankfully for the Mets, the bench is one of the easier areas to address heading into the deadline. The Mets may prioritize an outfielder, but the versatility of a player such as McNeil could allow the team to bring in an infielder if they find a better fit. Several former Mets are expected to be available at the deadline, but the group might be led by Pillar, who is having the best offensive year of his career so far with an .852 OPS this year.

Who the Mets Could Move

The Mets are in a fun spot heading into July. They control their own destiny over whether or not they are buyers at the deadline and have the farm system to make impact moves. Scott is still considered among the Mets’ top prospects, but since he is expected to be part of the Mets’ rotation heading into August, it is fair to assume he won’t be available at the deadline.

Beyond Scott, the Mets have a trio of strong starting prospects: Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell and Jonah Tong. Sproat, the Mets’ second-round selection in 2023, has dominated the High-A and Double-A levels to a 1.71 ERA overall. His meteoric rise and success might keep him out of trade talks on the Mets’ end.

Tidwell and Tong have also had strong 2024 campaigns but could find themselves involved in trade rumors this month. Tidwell, the Tennessee product and second-round pick in 2022, rode a 2.41 ERA for Double-A Binghamton to promotion to Triple-A Syracuse, where he has struggled.

Tidwell recently cracked Baseball America’s top 100 prospects as their 85th-ranked prospect in baseball. The 20-year-old Tong has an impressive 11.8 K/9 with the Cyclones to go along with a 3.02 ERA over 47 2/3 innings.

Beyond Tong and Tidwell, arms such as Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel, and Tyler Stuart could also be names of interest. Most notably, Mike Vasil started to find his footing after a rough start in Syracuse. After starting with a 10.80 ERA through six starts, Vasil owns a 4.37 ERA in the 45 1.3 innings since. Hamel was the International League Pitcher of the Week for the week of April 28th, but otherwise has struggled this year. Hamel has posted a 7.11 ERA for Syracuse with a 1.80 WHIP, but his potential as a reliever — think a 2022 Trevor Williams-type role — could make him of interest to other teams.

Stuart is coming off a breakout 2023 season, but is not enjoying quite the same success as last year. The massive righty has a 4.50 ERA for the Rumble Ponies over 68 innings. He is still striking out over a batter an inning, but his hits per nine innings have jumped from 7.32 to 9.66. However, his best start of the year came this past Monday, turning in seven innings of two-run baseball with 11 strikeouts.

Offensively, most of the Mets’ best-hitting prospects are currently hurt. Ronny Mauricio, Jett Williams, and Drew Gilbert are on the injured list. After that trio, Luisagnel Acuña and Kevin Parada have struggled for the better part of 2024. Acuña, however, put together a strong June to the tune of a .761 OPS with seven stolen bases. Acuña has played shortstop, second base and center field for Syracuse, which only helps his prospect value, considering he has been solid at both. Meanwhile, Parada’s OPS sits at .660 for the entire year in Binghamton.

In Binghamton, Ryan Clifford was one of the Eastern League’s best bats in June. Following a rough stint in pitcher-friendly Brooklyn, Clifford had a 1.009 OPS with eight homers for the Rumble Ponies in June, and has walked more than he has struck out (21 walks, 18 strikeouts). The former Astro draft pick has played first base, left field and right field this year, but has played at first the most.

The Mets have also seen strong seasons at the lower part of their minor league system. SS Jeremy Rodriguez (Tommy Pham trade) started incredibly hot for the FCL Mets, but has cooled off in June. CF Nick Morabito is hitting .316 through his first three months, and has an incredible 35 stolen bases on the year already. INF Jesus Baez got off to a strong start for the St. Lucie Mets, and has continued his production into Brooklyn. Baez has a .782 OPS with 11 homers through 72 games between both levels.

Two-way player Nolan McLean has caught many eyes this year but has struggled on both sides of the ball since moving up to Binghamton. After posting a 2.57 ERA for Brooklyn, McLean has been rocked to the tune of a 6.07 ERA for Binghamton. At the plate, McLean had an .849 OPS for Brooklyn through 25 games, and now through 25 games in Binghamton, he has a .565 OPS. McLean’s two-way potential, however, should be enticing to plenty of teams in baseball.

What If Things Go South?

If things don’t go well for the Mets heading into the All-Star break, they will find themselves where selling off pieces becomes the better path to take. Of note, the Mets have several movable pieces: 1B Pete Alonso, RHP Luis Severino, LHP Sean Manaea, CF Harrison Bader, and DH J.D. Martinez.

On the offensive side, Alonso and Martinez could be the best power bats available in the National League. Martinez, who started the 2024 season late after signing with the Mets during spring training, has posted a .851 OPS in Queens, hitting in front of Pete Alonso, who has been baseball’s premier power bat since he debuted in 2019. However, Alonso’s career numbers have steadily declined the last few years. The Mets’ first baseman currently holds a .794 OPS, a far cry short of his career mark of .863.

Harrison Bader has been one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. His OAA is in the 93rd percentile, and his 113 wRC+ ranks third among players with at least 70 starts in center field.

Pitching-wise, Luis Severino has seen a career renaissance in 2024, putting up a 3.42 ERA in 16 starts for the Mets. Severino is not striking out nearly as many batters as he used to, but his transformation to a contact pitcher has helped him find success that he has not had since his 2022 season with the Yankees. Severino, following his seven-inning start on Sunday, is 5 1/3 innings shy of posting his most innings since he threw 191 1/3 in 2018.

Throwing from the other side, Sean Manaea has been a dependable and sturdy piece of the Mets rotation. Manaea has pitched 76 1/3 innings across 15 starts, putting up a 3.67 ERA, striking out 81 and posting a WHIP of 1.27. Manaea’s trade market becomes a little difficult, considering his option for 2025. The veteran holds a player option for 2025 at $13.5 million, meaning if he struggles down the stretch for a contender, he would likely opt-in at a decently sized number. If he pitches well and is a key piece on a playoff team, he likely opts out.

What’s Next for the Mets?

Following their five-game homestand with the Astros, in which the Mets went 3-2, they split a four-game series in Washington with the Nationals, losing the final two. Starting on Friday, the Mets head to PNC Park for four with the Pirates, and then return home for three with the Nationals and three with the Rockies. Starting with their July 1 game with the Nationals, the Mets will not play another team above .500 until Monday, July 22, a stretch of 18 games that ends with four in Miami with the Marlins to open up the second half.

Edwin Díaz returns from suspension on Saturday, finally giving the Mets a fully rested and ready bullpen. Their bullpen shortage has been seen in almost every game since his suspension and has cost the Mets a few wins since that fateful night in Chicago.

For the Mets to get to a point where they are bringing in players at the deadline and not sending pieces out, they need to take care of business during the weakest stretch of their 2024 schedule. If the Mets can capitalize on the upcoming soft stretch of teams, they will find themselves in a position to buy at the deadline for the fifth time in six years. If not, Mets brass will be having very difficult conversations.

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