Even after slumping, the Royals are wildly exceeding expectations

Let’s put it into perspective

Close your eyes and try to remember the end of March, if you would. The Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore has just collapsed. Jo-Ann, the venerable arts and crafts store, filed for bankruptcy a few weeks ago. The Gonzaga Bulldogs recently walloped the Kansas Jayhawks in the NCAA Tournament. And nobody thought that the Kansas City Royals would be any good when baseball started.

Here at Royals Review, twelve of us tried to predict what would happen in the 2024 MLB season. As a group, our median prediction for the Royals was 75 wins. ZiPS and PECOTA, two of the most well-known and accurate projection systems, thought that the Royals would win 76 games and 70 games, respectively.

Considering that the Royals only won 56 games last year, winning 76 would have represented a gigantic improvement of 20 wins. And considering only four teams since 1969 increased their win total by 30 or more games in one year, a 20-win improvement would truly be an excellent accomplishment. In March, it was a dream.

So here we are, in the last third of June, and it would seem that the dream has become real. In fact, it’s been even more fantastic: The 42-34 Royals are on pace for 90 wins. Ninety! Wins!

If you would have told me before the season that the 2024 Royals would be on a 90-win pace through almost July, I would A) not have believed you and B) done whatever I could to ensure that would have happened. Additionally, this isn’t a 2003 fluke situation; these Royals are legit. They’ve got a +56 run differential and are right in line with what their first, second, and third order winning percentages say they should be right now.

Recently, the Royals have been frustrating. Their bullpen has fallen apart. Key position players have been underwhelming. The starters haven’t been able to maintain their hot start. As a result, they’ve only won three of their last 11 games and eight of their last 23 games. They’ve given up quite a bit of ground in the Wild Card race, and are only a half-game up on the Minnesota Twins and one game up on the Boston Red Sox.

Are there things on the team to fix? Absolutely there are. But the Royals have put themselves in a position to be sellers, for one, and secondarily it just can’t be overstated how insane of a position this team is when they just won 56 games last year. They’re going to exceed that total—in July.

It can be so easy to get drawn into the fan world where we get so down and pessimistic when things don’t go so well for our favorite teams. This never changes even when the team you’re rooting for is a dynastic behemoth of a franchise with some of the best players and one of the best coaches of all time; remember when some Chiefs fans wanted Andy Reid fired this year?

Of course, you can root for sports however you want to. It’s entertainment, so do what makes you happy. But if I could offer a humble suggestion: don’t let the down parts of this season get you too down. We just saw arguably the worst team in the history of the franchise this year. Even after a big teamwide slump that’s lasted weeks, the Royals would have a playoff spot if the season ended today.

There’s a long way to go this season, and it could still end badly. The Royals could still finish with a losing record. Even if they did, though, it’ll still exceed preseason expectations, and I’ll take that every year.