Series Preview: Twins at Guardians

The clash of the AL Central Titans

The oddsmakers have the Twins, Guardians and Royals fighting it out for first, second and third place in the AL Central for 2024, and the Twins are here to see if they can get revenge after dropping two at home to the Guardians in April.

The Twins enter the series at 24-19 with a +14 run differential, 2.5 games back of the Guardians. Minnesota is 12th in MLB with a team 103 wRC+, 7th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 2.4, 11th in Defensive WAR at -0.2, 8th in starting pitcher FIP at 3.63, and 10th in bullpen FIP at 3.65.

The Guardians are 27-17 with a +48 run differential, 13th in MLB with a team 102 wRC+, 12th in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -0.4, 6th in Defensive WAR at 4.1, 25th in MLB in starting pitcher FIP at 4.41, and 1st in bullpen FIP at 2.70.

Matchups:

Game 1: Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP (3.04 FIP) vs. Triston McKenzie, RHP (4.76 FIP) 7:10PM EST

Analysis: This would be a great game for McKenzie to build on his last two excellent starts as Woods-Richardson has looked very good so far while only being able to average five innings per start. David Fry at 166 wRC+, Josh Naylor at 150 wRC+, Jose Ramirez at 113 wRC+ and Andres Gimenez at 100 wRC+ are the only Guardians currently at average hitting level or over, so hopefully they can back Dr. Sticks up in his attempt keep the Twins at bay.

Game 2: Bailey Ober, RHP (3.16 FIP) vs Logan Allen, LHP (5.23 FIP) 6:10PM EST

Analysis: Allen will look to carry a positive last start into matchups against the Twins’ best hitters who are Ryan Jeffers (175 wRC+), Max Kepler (145 wRC+), Trevor Larnach (130 wRC+), Carlos Correa (128 wRC+), Edouard Julien (120 wRC+), Willi Castor (119 wRC+) and Jose Miranda (109 wRC+). Ober has been very good so Guardians will need to find a way to get to the tough right-hander.

Game 3: Chris Paddack, RHP (4.11 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee,RHP (3.84 FIP) 1:40PM EST

Analysis: This is the only game in which I suspect the Guardians will be clearly favored. If you look at the numbers, you can see why the Twins are still expected to beat the Guardians; they pitch better as a whole, they run the bases better, they’re above league average in defense and they have as good of an offensive attack as Cleveland. It’s just time for the Guardians to take next steps and prove they have a numerical adjustment coming when some of their young players and pitchers improve. Let’s hope they will!