Series Preview: Guardians at Rangers

A visit to the defending World Series champs

The Guardians will try to right the ship against the team that won the 2023 World Series for the next three games.

The Guardians are 25-16 with a +42 run differential, 16th in MLB with a 101 wRC+, 7th in MLB with 2.6 Defensive WAR, 18th in MLB with -1.4 Baserunning Runs Above Average, 24th in MLB with a 4.31 starting pitcher FIP, and 1st in MLB with a 2.65 relief pitcher FIP.

The Rangers are 22-20 with a +20 run differential, 12th in MLB with a 103 wRC+, 8th in MLB with +2.4 Defensive WAR, 21st in MLB with -1.8 Baserunning Runs Above Average, 14th in MLB with a 3.90 starting pitcher FIP, and 26th in MLB with a 4.36 relief pitcher FIP.

Matchups:

Game 1: Tanner Bibee, RHP (4.00 FIP) vs. Michael Lorenzen, RHP (5.45 FIP), 8:05PM EST, Monday

Analysis: The Guardians’ hitters have had a tough time of late, and I was interested to see an interview from MLB.com’s Mandy Bell with Chris Valaika and Stephen Vogt on the offensive challenges they’ve faced. I’m glad to hear them clearly identify the issues Jose needs to address and I think they’ve got a good sense of what needs to change. The only hitters on the Guardians currently above average are David Fry at 168 wRC+, Josh Naylor at 156 wRC+, and Jose Ramirez at 104 wRC+. We’re through the first forty games so I am going to be looking to see Bo Naylor put up more quality at-bats and also Tanner Bibee show that he’s capable of living into his new role as staff ace.

Game 2: Ben Lively, RHP (3.17 FIP) vs. TBD, 8:05PM EST, Tuesday

Analysis: Lively and Bibee have been the best of a bad bunch of starters for the Guardians and Lively finally showed some cracks in his armor his last time out. Time for him to do what he can to control the Rangers lineup, featuring Nathaniel Lowe at 144 wRC+, Josh Smith at 140 wRC+, Marcus Semien at 111 wRC+, Ezequiel Duran at 107 wRC+, Leody Taveras at 106 wRC+ and Evan Carter at 103 wRC+.

Game 3: Carlos Carrasco, RHP (5.34 FIP) vs. Jon Gray, RHP (2.35 FIP), 8:05PM EST, Wednesday

Analysis: Aside from the aforementioned three best hitters on the Guardians, Will Brennan and Estevan Florial both sit at 96 wRC+ and Andres Gimenez is at 91 wRC+. I’d like to see all three get three starts in this series and start the second forty game set of the Guardians 2024 season with some solid plate appearances. Carrasco really pitched well his last time out but needs to avoid the home run ball, especially late in his appearances. This is a tough matchup on paper for the Guards.

If I could, I wouldn’t mind seeing a lineup like the following a couple times in this series:

1. Estevan Florial, RF
2. David Fry, LF
3. Jose Ramirez, 3B
4. Josh Naylor, 1B
5. Will Brennan, CF
6. Kyle Manzardo, DH
7. Andres Gimenez, 2B
8. Bo Naylor, C
9. Brayan Rocchio, SS

It’ll be key for Guardians hitters to work counts and get into the soft underbelly of the Texas bullpen. Also, please don’t hit the ball to Taveras and Duran because I distinctly remember HATING them last year for catching everything hit in their zip code.