2024 Royals season preview: It’s time to win

The Royals want to win on the field and at the ballot box

Royals fans have seen their fair share of rebuild movements. Sometimes they pan out, like when they “flipped the switch” in 2011 with Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alcides Escobar, and Lorenzo Cain, the group that went on to win two pennants and a championship. But more often than not, the youth movement has sputtered, prospects failed, people lost their jobs, and fans lost hope.

The Royals underwent a youth movement in 2018 when the core of their championship team left town, but the rebuild crashed and burned after April of 2021 when the team squandered a hot start and lost 88 games, followed by another awful year that cost Dayton Moore his job. J.J. Picollo has tried to get the rebuild back on track, but never have we seen the Royals rebuild with the kind of financial investment that ownership took this past off-season.

Backed by ownership, Picollo spent significantly, adding veteran starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. He revamped the bullpen, adding Will Smith, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, and John Schreiber. He also added power-hitting outfielder Hunter Renfroe, and role players like Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson.

But his biggest move this winter involved a player that was already here. The Royals made a substantial commitment by signing Bobby Witt Jr. to a contract that will keep him here at least another seven years and possibly up to eleven years, with the potential of paying their young star $288.7 million, by far the richest contract in club history.

Kansas City Royals

2023 record: 56-106

2023 pythag: 64-98

2024 ZIPS projection: 76-86

2024 PECOTA projection: 71-91

Manager: Matt Quatraro (second season)

Key additions: Nick Anderson, Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson, Seth Lugo, Hunter Renfroe, Matt Sauer, John Schreiber, Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Michael Wacha, Kyle Wright

Key departures: Taylor Clarke, Dylan Coleman, Matt Duffy, Zack Greinke, Brad Keller, Jackson Kowar, Edward Olivares

All of this was done, of course, with an eye towards the April election that will ask voters to extend the 3/8 cent sales tax currently used to pay for the 2006 stadium renovations, in order to build a new $1 billion downtown stadium on the site of the Kansas City Star printing press. It is no accident that the vote will take place after the first weekend of the season, too early in the year for even the Royals to have fallen out of contention yet.

Offense

But the Royals hope to be in contention longer than that, with a young team that had a breakout star last year with Bobby Witt Jr. and is hoping for more breakouts to come. Witt lived up to his potential as one of the most dynamic hitters in baseball with a unique blend of power and speed. He was the first player in club history to have a 30/30 season, finishing with 30 home runs and 49 steals, and he finished seventh in MVP voting.

Despite his performance, the Royals had the eighth-fewest runs scored in baseball. They continue to be an impatient team that has trouble drawing walks - only the White Sox earned fewer free passes - and they have trouble keeping up with the surge in home runs around the league. The return of Vinnie Pasquantino, who missed the second half with an elbow injury, will help. He brings a high-walk, high-contact approach with solid power potential. Mid-season acquisition Nelson Velázquez showed intriguing power - his 14 home runs after his callup on August 10 were tied for seventh-most in baseball.

The Royals will really need another young hitter to step up. Left fielder MJ Melendez has shown an ability to draw walks, but his power has not quite developed despite some promising underlying metrics. Third baseman Maikel Garcia has demonstrated some patience at the plate and terrific speed and defense, but there are questions about his power potential. Michael Massey hit 15 home runs - seventh-most by a Royals second baseman in a season - but hit just .229 with a low walk rate. Former first round pick Nick Pratto has been disappointing thus far in his first two seasons and did not make the Opening Day roster, but his impressive spring training performance gives hope he can finally turn the corner this year.

All statistics are 2023 numbers.

Pitching

Royals pitchers gave up the third-most runs, leading GM J.J. Picollo to remark at the end of the season that the team was not going to wait around for pitchers to develop anymore. Much of the pitching staff was overhauled in favor of veteran pitchers - Lugo and Wacha in the rotation, and Anderson, Schrieber Smith, and Stratton in the bullpen. That should raise the floor for performance considerably, although workload may be a concern - no projected starter pitched more than 160 innings last year.

Cole Ragans emerged to become the best pitcher in baseball over the final two months of last season. He proved to be a shrewd find from the Rangers organization and has already been tabbed Opening Day starter and expected ace of this staff. Lugo and Wacha have proven to be effective starters, but each are on the wrong side of 30 and have endured a history of minor injuries. The Royals are hoping from a big bounceback season from Brady Singer, who showed terrific potential in 2022. Alec Marsh joins the rotation initially, beating out veteran Jordan Lyles for the fifth spot, although you could see the Royals try other options there as well, such as Daniel Lynch IV, Angel Zerpa, or Anthony Veneziano.

The bullpen has undergone a remarkable facelift, much-needed after they finished with the second-highest ERA last year. Will Smith, who has won three consecutive championships with three different teams over the last three years - will likely be the primary closer. Nick Anderson could get some opportunities as well, if he can stay healthy. Chris Stratton led the league in multi-inning appearances last year and could be a solid middle-reliever. John Schreiber was fantastic in 2022 and the first half of 2023 before an injury sidelined him, which may have been the reason he finished poorly in Boston.

The Royals had a nice find in James McArthur from the Phillies organization, and he’ll look to show his impressive curveball was no fluke. The Royals have some hard-throwing relievers waiting in the wings as well. Carlos Hernández will begin the year on the Injured List with shoulder soreness, but brings a fastball in the triple digits, if only he could control it better. Will Klein, John McMillion, and Steven Cruz are other flamethrowers that will begin the year in the minors.

All statistics are 2023 numbers.

The Royals have had three 100-loss seasons in the last six years, and haven’t enjoyed a winning season since their magical championship season of 2015. Owner John Sherman is trying to usher in a new era of Royals baseball with a more sustainable approach to winning that avoids bottoming out and rebuilding, and a new downtown stadium is part of that vision.

But the Royals play in the “Show-Me State”, and fans have a right to be skeptical. The investments in free agency are welcomed, but is it enough to turn around a team that lost 106 games? The young hitters show signs of promise, but can they score runs consistently? The pitching development team says the right things, but will they get results? The downtown stadium has nice renderings and promises great benefits for the community, but will it actually deliver?

The franchise is at a crossroads this season. They could be on the verge of something wonderful, or it could all fall apart like so many empty promises. But it is clear that the era of evaluations, of potential, of five-year-plans, of things to come, is over. The Royals are raising their expectations and they want to win now. And that is a welcome change.