MMO Free Agent Profile: Andrew Heaney, SP

Andrew Heaney

Player Data: Position – SP, Age – 31 (6/5/1991), B/T – L/L

Traditional Stats: 14 GS, 4-4 W-L, 72.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, 110 SO, 19 BB

Advanced Stats: 136 ERA+, 35.0 K%, 6.1% BB, 3.39 xERA, 3.75 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, 0.7 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR

Note, Heaney was reportedly one of several players the Mets have had a Zoom meeting with.

Rundown

The Dodgers took a chance on Andrew Heaney when they signed him to a one-year, $8.5-million contract before the 2022 season. He struggled mightily in 2021, especially after being dealt to the Yankees at the trade deadline. During that season, Heaney recorded a 5.83 ERA and allowed 29 home runs in 129 2/3 innings. With the Yankees during that tumultuous 2021 season, opposing hitters slashed .268/.325/.634 (.959 OPS) against him and clubbed 13 home runs in 35 2/3 innings pitched.

Heaney, unsure that he would make the Dodgers’ rotation in 2022, worked in Colorado during the off-season to redefine himself as a pitcher. He scraped the curveball from his pitch mix and added a sweeping slider to his repertoire. Heaney, thrusted into the Dodgers’ rotation due to injuries, found immediate success with the new pitch. In his first two starts, he struck out 16 batters and did not allow an earned run in 10 1/3 innings.

Unfortunately, for Heaney, two separate left shoulder injuries sidelined him for a total of 99 days and hampered his early success. He made two starts in between April 17 and August 1, allowing one run over nine innings.

Heaney was reliable for the Dodgers when he returned at the beginning of August. He started 10 games, logged 53 1/3 innings, and pitched to a 4.05 ERA. While his ERA was average, Heaney struck out an outstanding 14.1 batters per nine over that stretch.

Overall, Heaney was a success for the Dodgers. He finished with a career-best 3.10 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, 13.6 SO/9, 3.75 FIP, and 136 ERA+. While he only pitched 72 2/3 innings, he made the fifth most starts for a Dodgers’ rotation that saw Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, and Tony Gonsolin go on the injured list for a considerable amount of time.

As mentioned before, the reason for Heaney’s breakout season was the addition of the sweeping slider. In 2022, Heaney threw his slider 398 times after only throwing 21 times in 2021. Batters struggled against the pitch as well, hitting only .170 against it and whiffing on the pitch 44.3% of the time. With his new approach, Heaney finished the 2022 season in the top 3% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage. He also finished in the 96th percentile in chase rate.

However, while Heaney found success with his slider, his fastball was one of the worst pitches in MLB. In 2022, batters slugged .449 against it and had an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph. When batters got the fastball, they did not miss, as Heaney finished in the bottom-fourth percentile in barrel rate. To make matters worse, Heaney also finished in the last percentile in hard-hit rate and the league’s second percentile in average exit velocity. Even though he was able to strikeout hitters, contact was inevitable, and when it happened, it did so hard.

Contract

Heaney and the Dodgers agreed on a one-year deal worth $8.5 million contract before the 2022 season. He was not extended the qualifying offer after the season’s conclusion and is now a free agent.

Fangraphs is projecting a two-year deal for Heaney worth a total of $20 million. Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumors projects a deal of three years totaling $42 million. At 31 years old, a deal around three years between the two projected annual average values above of $10 million and $14 million seems fair. Though, given the pitcher-friendly market, anything is possible.

While that projected price tag is affordable, Heaney’s role on an major-league team isn’t identified. He was a starter in 2022, but did not go deep into games. The most innings Heaney recorded in a start last season was six. Not to mention, he has had issues staying on the field and has not made 30 starts since 2018. So, any contract will come with some risk.

Recommendation

It appears the Mets have already started the process of pursuing the southpaw starter. He appears to be considered one of the middle-tier level pitchers the Mets want to sign. At the end of the day, Heaney was effective for the Dodgers last season and his strikeout numbers were phenomenal. The Mets have multiple spots to fill in the rotation and bullpen, so being interest in Heaney makes a lot of sense.

As for his role on the team, Heaney would likely be called upon to be an every fifth-day starter. Especially at his presumed price tag. Though, the options are limitless, as he has also shown the prowess to serve as an “opener” or out of the bullpen in the past. The Mets can certainly use a pitcher with that resume.

If the Mets do sign Heaney, as mentioned above, he will presumably be in the starting rotation. The Mets have to replace Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker for the 2023 season. With the current state of the New York rotation, Heaney would project as the third/fourth starter for New York.

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