Reinforcements On The Horizon For Mets’ Thin Rotation

To panic or not to panic? That is the question, one which has often been answered with the former by Mets fans over the years.

This is also one of the best Mets teams in recent years. And yet, even with so many things going right, they still find themselves caught in the same narrative of injuries hampering the rotation. They came into the year advertising “the best one-two punch in baseball” — both guys are on the shelf. To make matters worse, they recently lost Tylor Megill for the second time this year, and Carlos Carrasco had to leave his last start with an injury.

That leaves the Mets in a situation they’ve found themselves time and time again, where depth becomes critical and a bigger spotlight shines over the looming trade market. The Mets haven’t had the luxury of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer pitching 40% of their games, yet they still lead the NL East by five games. It’s almost frightening to think about how good this team could be if they had both those guys healthy and on top of their game.

While it’s easy to say “same old Mets” with this year’s injury problems, these aren’t the same old Mets. In the Wilpon era, Scherzer is someone they never would have signed in the first place. The excitement of inserting him back into the rotation is different from years past. It’s not like they’re a below-.500 team awaiting the return Steven Matz. This is an already great team that’s about to add some extra firepower.

To equate a player returning from injury to a trade deadline acquisition is a cliche that’s been overused in the past to justify a lack of action. And I’m not saying the Mets shouldn’t explore the trade market. If they can work out a good deal for someone like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, then they should absolutely go for it. But it’s important to realize that Scherzer is mere days from returning. That’s not to say they should settle and not look for further reinforcements, but more to emphasize just how big a difference Scherzer (and eventually deGrom) will make.

The rotation as it stands is pretty thin, with deGrom, Scherzer, Megill, Joey Lucchesi and possibly Carrasco on the sideline. Chris Bassitt has been very good despite a rough stretch and a few too many homers, posting a 3.81 FIP and 1.1 fWAR. Taijuan Walker has been really good as well, particularly with his recent uptick in strikeouts. But Mets fans all saw how he fell off a cliff in the second half last year, and he’s certainly not someone they should be relying too heavily on.

The only other active and healthy starter is David Peterson, who’s done a respectable job. But if Carrasco has to miss the time, that leaves only three starters, all of whom have had their ups and downs. They’ve been going to Trevor Williams recently, but that’s not a long-term solution. In the short term, looking at this Mets rotation in a vacuum, things look fairly bleak. It’s what you might expect from a Mets rotation in the Wilpon era.

But in the long term of this season which still has several months left, things look much brighter than they have in the past. Scherzer was initially rumored to return as soon as this Sunday, and while that won’t happen, he could be back next week.

DeGrom’s progress has been slower than Scherzer’s, and he still hasn’t thrown a pitch in a major league game this year. But things are heading in the right direction for him as well. He faced live hitters recently, and he was seen with the team in Miami. His return date keeps getting pushed back, but right now it’s looking like he could realistically come back in mid July. In less than a month, the Mets could have two of the best pitchers in baseball in their rotation.

That’s quite a far cry from having Bassitt and Walker as your two best starters. That’s less of a knock on those guys and more of an indictment that you’re in trouble if you’re counting on them to lead your rotation.

Add to the mix a front office which has shown a drastically higher willingness to spend than the old regime did. Case in point, the aforementioned Scherzer, not to mention Bassitt, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler have changed the culture in their short time at the helms in New York. Spending on a big free agent pitcher at the trade deadline isn’t the pipe dream it used to be for Mets fans.

Add a Castillo to this rotation, and things could get nasty quickly. It also allows for more leeway if Walker goes through second-half struggles again, or when the rotation inevitably takes another unprecedented hit.

So to go back to the original question, there’s much less need to panic than in years past. Things look grim for the Mets’ rotation right now, and yet they’ve still found a way to be one of the best teams in baseball. The overall sense for Mets fans going into the second half of this season should be excitement, both in what this team has accomplished so far and what they have the potential to do in the coming months.

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