Game 15, Astros at Mariners

Chris Flexen vs. Zack Greinke, 6:10pm

The Astros had a three run lead, and their starter was dealing. The M’s cut the deficit to one, thanks to the inhuman hot streak that Kyle Seager is on, but Yusei Kikuchi coughed up two more runs. It was over. I was sure of it. We’ve seen this play out in this match-up time and time again. It’s close for a while, and then the Astros methodically pull away. 5-2, late in the game, against Houston.

The M’s offense still isn’t what anyone – probably including the Mariners offense – would call *good.* It has an excellent top third, and then things get split between underperforming sluggers and just questionable talent (yes, much of that necessitated by injuries and the ravenous hunger to acquire a 7th year of club control over a prospect). But what they ARE is incredibly entertaining, and as we watch this for entertainment, I have to applaud them for it.

The Mariners offense has a win-probability added of 2.64, just behind the #1 Dodgers at 2.80, and waaaay ahead of the Reds in third at 1.35.* That is, their offense has done things that make winning more likely, and add them all up, and they’ve essentially racked up 2.6 *games* worth of such moments. But whereas the Dodgers get to that total by being pretty comprehensibly excellent at batting, the M’s take a different approach. By Fangraphs’ “Clutch” metric, the M’s are far and away the best in baseball. It’s essentially a measure that compares how the batters do in really high-leverage situations to how they do in other situations; how much better or worse are they *than themselves* in clutch situations? The M’s bats look lost for large portions of the game, and then suddenly put together really good at-bats in the late innings, and THEN, string them together.

I would tend to doubt that this is really sustainable. It’s hilarious and entertaining, but it’s not exactly how you build a perennial contender. The M’s would argue that they don’t have to: the offense will get better because they’ll get better batsman when Kyle Lewis returns, or when Jarred Kelenic is promoted, or when the slumping Tom Murphy stops slumping. But of course, the games in April count, too, and it’s nice that the M’s are winning some of these winnable games, even when it looks impossible in the 5th or so.

Today, Chris Flexen tries to right the good ship Mariner, as the M’s starters have been as un-clutch, as deleterious to win probability as the batters have been at helping it. The M’s starters rank 26th in baseball by WPA, and 30th by fWAR. A high walk rate and a high HR rate will do that, especially in FIP-based value systems, but it’s not exactly a path to success on regular old score boards, either. That said, things have been trending upwards, as Marco Gonzales shook off a bad first inning and then looked great the rest of the way. Justin Dunn’s coming off a good game. But the best starter so far has been Flexen (in all of two starts, I know). Flexen’s a key player in ensuring the M’s rotation can be a net positive by the end of the year. His cutter’s become a weapon, and thanks to a solid change-up and curve, he can give lefties a lot of different looks and movement patterns. That’s good, because his four-seam fastball has been hit hard in the early going.

The M’s face off against the ageless Zack Greinke, now in his 18th season. After coming to the club that revitalized Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton, and then unlocked Gerrit Cole’s talent, I think many around the game thought they’d do the same with Greinke. He had a down year in his first season with Arizona, but by the time of his trade, he was back to being an excellent starter, with his consistently low walks and surprisingly good ability to miss bats even as his fastball’s lost pace. His first full year in Houston was amazing by K%/BB%, but his ERA started with a 4. This year, he’s not missing bats, and he gave up three HRs in his last game. But he’s still kind of hanging around the edge of effectiveness by inducing some weak contact. His four-seam now comes in at 88, and he has that Felix-like hard change-up at 86. His slider’s at 82, so to give batters something to think about and vary his speeds a bit, he’ll throw his curve that averages 71, but will get down into the 50s at times.

1: Haniger, RF
2: France, DH
3: Seager, 3B
4: Torrens, C
5: Marmolejos, LF
6: White, 1B
7: Moore, RF
8: Crawford, SS
9: Haggerty, CF
SP: Flexen

If mid/high-50s aren’t good enough eephus pitches for you, like you’re suddenly, oddly aggressive about what should and should not be called an eephus pitch, or if you just demand truly weird baseball content, I give you Willians Astudillo throwing 46mph pitches. The lowest recorded velo was 46, but he actually threw two pitches slower, and the system simply didn’t track them.

* Hat tip to the Dome and Bedlam twitter account that highlighted this in the afterglow of last night’s win over the Astros.