NCAA Tournament Betting Guide for March 29th
South and Midwest Region Champions will be crowned Monday night. The Baylor Bears are taking on the Arkansas Razorbacks to represent the South in the Final Four. The Houston Cougars get the lowest seed left in the tournament when they play the Oregon State Beavers.
We’re here to break down which bets present value on the betting board at FanDuel Sportsbook!
#1 Baylor Bears vs. #3 Arkansas Razorbacks, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Bears -330, Razorbacks +265
Spread: Bears -7.5 (-110), Razorbacks -7.5 (-110)
Total: o148.5 (-110)
Odds to Win NCAA Tournament: Bears +300|Razorbacks +1600
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
#1 Baylor Bears vs. #3 Arkansas Razorbacks News, Analysis, and Picks
It is strength against strength when the Baylor Bears and their third-ranked offense take on the Arkansas Razorbacks and their ninth-ranked defense.
One of the concerning trends that we’ve seen in Baylor games this tournament is getting off to slow starts. Against #16 seed Hartford Hawks, the Bears traded punches for most of the first half before finally pulling away around the six-minute mark. The Bears also needed about eight minutes of warmup before putting some distance between themselves and the Wisconsin Badgers in the Round of 32. Baylor then had an inefficient first half against the Villanova Wildcats before taking over in the second half. Those slow starts could be compounded by an efficient Razorbacks defense limiting opponents to 39.4% shooting over their last three games.
There’s something to be said about being good and lucky, and the Razorbacks checked both boxes in their Sweet 16 game against the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles. Arkansas outscored the Golden Eagles by nine in the second half, and Max Abmas missed a buzzer-beating three, allowing the Razorbacks to walk away victorious.
Interior scoring has been a significant part of the Razorbacks’ success this tournament with 106 of their 225 points coming in the paint. As good as that is, reliance on interior scoring will make it hard to keep up with the Bears offense that scores from three-point range better than any other team in the NCAA.
Of the Sweet 16 games on Saturday, the highest-scoring first half was the Razorbacks game against Oral Roberts which had 63 first-half points. As we progress in the tournament and games become more meaningful, teams tend to play, not lose, rather than win. We’re expecting that “feeling out” trend to continue in the Elite Eight.
The game total for this matchup is set at 148.5 but the first-half total is set at 70, which is an acknowledgment from FanDuel Sportsbook that the first half of the tournament games have been lower scoring. Considering Baylor’s slow starts and Arkansas’ defense first mentality, we’re picking this one to stay under the first-half total.
What Baylor has done better than anyone in the tournament is pull away late. The biggest difference between these teams is their efficiency from downtown. The Bears have the best three-point shooting percentage in the country, and the Razorbacks are tied for 189th in the college ranks, hitting 33.3% of their shots. That will be the difference in this game as Baylor covers the -7 spread.
#2 Houston Cougars vs. #12 Oregon State Beavers, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Cougars -355, Beavers +285
Spread: Cougars -8 (-110), Beavers +8 (-110)
Total: o130 -106
Odds to Win NCAA Tournament: Cougars +650|Beavers +2000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
#2 Houston Cougars vs. #12 Oregon State Beavers News, Analysis, and Picks
Surely both programs have bigger aspirations than the Final Four, but the Elite Eight matchup between the Houston Cougars and Oregon State Beavers validates that defense wins championships.
The 12th seeded Beavers didn’t enter the tournament with an elite defense, but they’ve certainly relied on it to get to the Midwest Finals. Oregon State has held opponents to 31.3% shooting, including 23.7% from three-point range since the tournament started. Whatever adjustments Wayne Tinkle made, are working.
Defense has been the name of the game for the Cougars all season. The Cougars rode their third-ranked defense to a #2 seed and have relied on it even moreso in the tournament. Houston has decreased their season-long opponent shooting percentage to 37.5%, thanks to limiting opponents to 36.8% shooting in the tournament. Don’t expect either team to abandon their defense-first structure.
Another important factor that we need to consider is pace. Houston and Oregon State have methodical offenses that use the full 35-second shot clock to take their shot. The Cougars were the faster of the two offenses, running 65.6 plays per game, which ranks as the 307th most possessions per game. The Beavers are marginally slower, operating 65.3 plays per game, ranking 314th.
Defense and pace will help this one stay under the 130 point total. A slow, low-scoring game will make it hard for the Cougars to build up a substantial enough lead to warrant the -8 spread. Oregon State’s offense has been more efficient this tournament and the Cougars have been less effective at defending the three; that should be enough for the Beavers to cover the +8.