Opinion: The Mets Should Extend Marcus Stroman — Immediately

 

You can’t take a step these days without running into a discussion about contract extensions. They’re everywhere. Sandy Alderson and Luis Rojas have addressed them in press conferences, as have Michael Conforto and Francisco Lindor. Noah Syndergaard’s name has also been mentioned as an extension candidate. Fans debate them endlessly, with a passion that reflects their potential enormity: a contract extension for Francisco Lindor, for instance, could mean that Lindor is a Met through the year 2030.

“That’s not a real year!” I’m tempted to shout. “We’ll all be drinking moon juice with President Jonathan Taylor Thomas!” But that’s what gives this moment all its volatility and nervous energy: any day now, Mets fans could learn that they’ll get to see Francisco Lindor in orange and blue for the entire next decade.

They certainly should, because signing Lindor to an extension makes complete sense. Lindor is one of the best shortstops in baseball on both sides of the ball. He had a down year on offense in 2020, posting a .750 OPS, but his numbers were suppressed by a .280 BABIP, which, considering he’s always hit the ball a fair amount harder than average, is due to improve. That down year in 2020 will also slightly suppress his value, which might allow the Mets to sign him at a slight discount.

It’s strange: signing Lindor to an extension seems to meet almost universal acclaim from Mets fans. But the arguments are also all true about Marcus Stroman — and compared to Lindor backers, support for a Stroman extension is almost inaudible. Even Sandy Alderson doesn’t seem to have Stroman at the center of his mind. Asked about possible extensions, Alderson named Lindor, Conforto, and Syndergaard — but didn’t even mention Stroman’s name.

Marcus Stroman's Debut of his new Split Change. ???? pic.twitter.com/nB7okhkFEO

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 2, 2021

Stroman is just 29, and he’s pitched to a career 3.76 E.R.A. over six seasons. After being traded to the Mets in 2019, he proved he could handle New York, pitching to a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts. He constantly works to improve, making deceptive tweaks to his motion, developing new pitches, and fine-tuning the ones he already has. It’s early — in fact, it’s very early — but so far this spring, Stroman looks like he’s at the top of his game. The newly developed “split change” that he debuted this week against the Astros dropped like it had fallen off a table, and completely deceived Michael Brantley, which, if you’re judging the efficacy of a pitch, is a pretty high bar to clear the first time out.

Stroman also famously grew up on Long Island, pitching for Patchogue-Medford High School. After his trade to the Mets, he Tweeted a picture of himself, around age five or so, wearing a Mets jacket. He’s a local kid, just like Steven Matz and John Franco and Ed Kranepool, and he’s also an excellent pitcher.

“He’s an excellent pitcher” is already enough of a reason to extend him. But there’s also a reason the Mets should extend Stroman right now, the same reason they should sign Lindor as soon as possible: the cost. If the Mets don’t sign Stroman before Opening Day, his price could skyrocket before their next opportunity to negotiate.

Simply put, Stroman’s value right now may be at its floor. He opted out of the 2020 season, so he’s surrounded by uncertainty. Right now, that uncertainty will mean a discount for the Mets. But if Stroman starts 2021 looking dominant, pitching to an ERA around 3.00 or better and looking every bit the pitcher he’s been at his best, the Mets will lose their exclusive opportunity for a discount.

The 2022 free agent pitching class will drive Stroman’s price up even further if he hits the open market. Two big free-agent names, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, will be almost 40. Clayton Kershaw may be a free agent, but he may also retire or sign another extension with the Dodgers. If Stroman becomes a free agent after this season, there probably won’t be anyone else on the market who can match his combination of age — he’ll only be 31 — and pitching ability. He’ll be a hot commodity.

For the moment, the Mets rotation looks like a strength, but it won’t stay that way unless they work to maintain it. Stroman and Syndergaard will both be free agents after this season, and it’s anyone’s guess whether the Mets are willing and able to extend both of them. For some reason, the Mets haven’t talked much about a Stroman extension. But if they’re interested in keeping Stroman, and Stroman wants to stay, they should sign him sooner rather than later, before he has a chance to prove that he hasn’t lost a step, and that any team in baseball would be lucky to have him.

 

The post Opinion: The Mets Should Extend Marcus Stroman — Immediately first appeared on Metsmerized Online.