The Most Important Matchups and Best Bets for Tuesday’s NBA Slate
Tuesday’s contest between the Raptors and Pistons has been postponed due to health and safety protocols, but that still leaves a solid six games on tap. The action gets underway with the Grizzlies vs. the Wizards at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Suns vs. the Lakers at 10 p.m. ET.
There are a bunch of interesting contests on the slate tonight, but the game between the Nuggets and Bucks is the one I’ll have my eye on. Milwaukee has been the best regular season team in the league over the past two years, but they’ve stumbled a bit through the first half of this season. That said, they’ve won five straight games, and Jrue Holiday just returned to the rotation following an extended absence due to COVID-19. Is their recent winning streak an aberration or a sign of things to come?
Let’s dive in.
KEY MATCHUPS
The Bucks are coming off an impressive win vs. the Clippers in their last contest, and they have started to look like the team we’ve become accustomed to. They’re up to 21-13 on the season, which is good enough for third place in the Eastern Conference.
That said, this team still has plenty of room for growth moving forward. They rank second in the league in Net Rating, outscoring their opponents by an average of +7.4 points per 100 possessions. That gives them an expected record of 24-10, which means they’ve been one of the league’s unluckiest squads this season. They also rank second in Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System, which adjusted Net Rating based on strength of schedule.
Giannis Antetokounmpo hasn’t been quite as good as he was last season, but he’s still arguably the most impactful player in the league. He is dominant on both ends of the court, and he ranks in the top three in Win Shares, Player Efficiency Rating, and Value Over Replacement Player. Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are the only players who have been better this season according to the advanced metrics, and both of those players are candidates to take home their first MVP.
Holiday returning to the lineup should also have a massive impact on this squad. The Bucks have increased their Net Rating by +7.4 points per 100 possessions with Holiday on the court this season, and he is the perfect complimentary piece next to Giannis and Khris Middleton. He is an excellent defender – the Bucks have allowed just 106.7 points per 100 possessions with Holiday, Giannis, and Middleton on the court – and he’s also capable of knocking down shots from the perimeter.
Holiday is still working his way back into game shape, but even 20 minutes from him vs. the Nuggets makes this team better.
Speaking of the Nuggets, they are dealing with a ton of absences on Tuesday. Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green, and Gary Harris are expected to be sidelined through the All-Star break, while Facundo Campazzo and R.J. Hampton are out due to health and safety protocols.
The injuries to Millsap and Green could be massive in this contest. They are the two players with the best chance of slowing down Giannis on the roster, and I have no idea how they’re going to limit him without those two players.
I like the Bucks to continue their stretch of recent dominance, and the sharps appear to like the Bucks as well: They’ve received 73% of the spread dollars on just 51% of the spread bets.
LINE MOVEMENT
There have already been some significant line moves on today’s slate.
One of the most significant line moves involves the Clippers. They’ve moved to -4.5 on the road vs. the Celtics on FanDuel Sportsbook, thanks in part to a whopping 95% of the spread dollars landing on LA. Boston snapped their losing streak with back-to-back wins over the Pacers and Wizards, but neither of those wins was particularly impressive. The Clippers represent a massive step up in competition, and bettors clearly don’t think the Celtics are ready for that.
BETTING BREAKDOWNS
BEST BETS FROM THE SPORTSGRID BETTING MODEL
Find out who our betting model likes in each of tonight’s six NBA contests, along with the Nuggets vs. Bucks game.
PLAYER PROP BETS
Joe Cervenka highlights a few player props providing value on Thursday’s slate of games at FanDuel Sportsbook.