Examining Cleveland Cy Young Seasons
Shane Bieber will likely win the 2020 AL Cy Young Award this season, earning his first and the organization's sixth award. In the Wild Card Era Cleveland developed a knack for winning pitchers' awards winning five of 21 possible Cy Young Awards in the AL more than any other American League franchise*, one ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays who's free agent acquisition, Roger Clemens, proved adept at winning the award. When the past is enjoyable it's always fun to reminisce, so I figured to celebrate Bieber's likely win it would be fun to remember our previous wins (including the win prior to the Wild Card Era).
*Arizona actually leads all Major League Baseball teams: Randy Johnson won four Cy Youngs in a row from 1999-2002, and then Brandon Webb secured the award in 2006 for one more than Cleveland.
This analysis will look at each Cy Young season, look at their: Black Ink (statistics the winner led the league in), Grey Ink (statistics they were in the Top 10 in, and their top three games via game score. You can find the raw statistics and details on a Google Spreadsheet here.
Gaylord Perry, 1972
The only Cleveland Cy Young I personally did not witness, and frankly won in an era completely different than our own. Gaylord Perry was an unusual Hall of Famer: he bounced around the game and Cleveland acquired Perry from San Francisco swapping out fireballer Sam McDowell for the famed spitballer. Perry of course immediately provided dividends to the moribund Cleveland franchise, however Perry's Cy Young season feels out of place, a few notes:
-Perry pitched over 100 innings more than the next Cy Young winner (C.C. Sabathia's 241 innings)
-Perry completed 29 complete games, Corey Kluber (the runner up) finished five in 2017
-As a result: Perry finished with 11 bWAR (and fWAR), which blows away Corey Kluber's runner up total of 8.1
Overall: Perry pitched in a completely different time, and it can best be seen in his top games. Perry's best game, by game score, was a complete game, 11 inning, affair on October 1st against the Yankees. The Tribe won off a sacrifice fly from Chris Chambliss in the top of the 11th; Perry would finish the game quickly. The whole 11 inning affair finished in two hours and nineteen minutes...and this was only Game 1 of a doubleheader. Perry's next best game was an 13 inning affair on July 14th against Texas. Perry did not even complete this game either.
Perry won his Cy Young on the back of old school statistics. Perry only led the league in three statistics (one of which did not exist in 1972): wins and complete games. Perry finished a close second in ERA to Luis Tiant (literally 1/100th of a point) however, which likely helped his case. In the peripheral statistics Perry did not finish in the top 10 on strikeout rate, and only 9th in walk rate. It was truly a season of excellent volume, not dominance.
Thankfully for Perry, he won 24 games. Perry beat out Wilbur Wood for the award. Overall three differences stand out to me: 1) Wood pitched 30 more innings than Perry, 2) Perry's ERA was lower, and 3) Perry lost one less game than Wood (they both won 24 games). I suspect that one loss carried a lot of weight in 1972.
C.C. Sabathia, 2007
Sabathia finally put it all together in 2007 after spending the first six years of his career toiling as a fireballer for the Indians, he added more control than he possessed as a younger man, and remained healthy for the full season. Sabathia opened the season for Cleveland, and was the dominant pitcher on the staff all year round. I vividly recall C.C. beating Johan Santana (the reigning Cy Young winner) three times, which had never occurred in baseball history at that time.
Sabathia became the American League workhorse in 2007; he led the league in innings pitched, batters faced, and pitches thrown. Sabathia rarely pitched true gems (Sabathia's best game is the lowest Game Score of the top games in the sample), but consistently kept his team in the game. I attended the game in Cincinnati with my father (a frustrating game, but my first visit to the Great American Ballpark). Another game I recall was against Toronto: Sabathia surrendered three solo shots to start the 1st but hung on for six innings for the win. Overrall, C.C.'s best games lag mildly behind the other Cy Young winners. After two strong top games his next games sit in the mid 70s, and then drop off from there.
In terms of overall performance Sabathia's '07 season is likely the worst in the sample. Sabathia led the league in innings pitched, strikeout-walk ratio, and fWAR. Everywhere else Sabathia lags the competition (although he did rank in the top 10 in every category in the sample). In terms of voting, Sabathia clearly beat out Josh Beckett for the award, likely due to Sabathia's 40 inning advantage. Beckett actually won 20 games (which Sabathia did not), but their ERAs were similar, and Sabathia did pitch more innings. The postseason made the award seem foolish given Beckett's strong performances for Boston, and Sabathia's middling postseason.
Cliff Lee, 2008
One thing I will never forget: Cliff Lee looked done after 2007. From 2002 to 2006 Cliff Lee was a perfectly fine pitcher: ERA & FIP in the 4s, lots of walks with enough strikeouts to keep batters honest. In 2007 Lee was shelled, demoted to the minors, then left off the postseason roster. He mockingly tipped his cap to fans after a particularly disastrous start to a chorus of boos. In 2008 Lee won 22 games and the Cy Young Award.
If there is a tragedy of the late '00s Indians its they failed to get their great players to play well at the same time. The offense peaked in 2006 when Sizemore was the best player in the league and Travis Hafter was an offensive juggernaut. C.C. Sabathia pitched great in 2006 and 2007, but struggled out of the gate in 2008. Cliff Lee turned into a control maestro in 2008, after the offense collapsed and Sabathia was traded.
But that tragedy does not stop me from recalling Lee's magnificence. Lee seemed unbeatable in 2008, in some ways he was as he only 'lost' three games. He started the year on fire; his ERA remained under 1 until well into May. The key to Lee's dominance? He didn't walk anybody; Lee overnight became a control freak in 21 of his 31 games he walked one batter or less, in 28 of those games it was two or less. Lee, overnight, became a left handed Curt Schilling. With few walks came economy: Lee led the league in shutouts and complete games; Lee never pitched a shutout until 2008, and he beat his career total of complete games in one season.
This economy shows in his best games, the best of which occurred on April 24th against Kansas City. In a quick game (barely over two hours) Lee shutout the Royals, striking out 9 walking none. Lee consistently pitched into the 7th inning, and pitched as many eight inning games as he did six inning ones. He never pitched fewer than five innings all season.
Overall, Lee finished the year either first or second in nearly every major statistical category leading the AL in: wins, complete games, shutouts, ERA, FIP, ERA+, bWAR, fWAR and walk rate. He finished second in all the others, besides strikeouts and strikeout rate. Lee was, in many ways, the most dominant player in the AL in 2008.
Corey Kluber, 2014
The difference between Cliff Lee's emergence and Kluber's is simple: everyone knew who Cliff Lee was in 2008, almost nobody knew who Corey Kluber was in 2014. Kluber was so unknown he didn't even make the All-Star game in 2014. Perhaps I am mistaken, if I follow this timeline of the Corey Kluber Society (frequently just "the society") he's been known since the beginning of time. But from a non-Fangraphs perspective: Kluber was a middling starter in 2011, '12 and '13. He didn't even start 2014 off with a bang; his April (outside a tremendous outing against Kansas City on April 24th where he struck out 11 and walked none in nine innings).
But Kluber turned the switch in May and never looked back. Kluber's ERA was over 4 in April, and never dipped above 3 the remainder of the year. Kluber's strong finish first gained notice, and then competition with who was then widely viewed as the best pitcher in the AL and only hampered by his team's poor offensive output (and thus low win total). Kluber finished the year with little black ink (wins, both versions of WAR, and FIP), and a muddled mess in other statistics.
Overall, the Cy Young race was incredibly close with Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez basically tied for the Cy Young Award, in a close race: Kluber edged him out. Others also boasted good seasons: Chris Sale was Chris Sale (meaning he was effective but injured), David Price struck out a ton of batters, Jon Lester was in the mix. Overall 2014 was the inverse of 2007: instead of not many pitchers really standing out TOO MANY pitchers stood out, and competed for dominance.
In terms of best games, Kluber's best game came in July in a complete game losing effort to Kansas City (where his defense failed him). His next two were both complete games, and no earned runs surrendered, with lots of strikeouts. In terms of style, Kluber differentiates himself with the strikeout. Sabathia was a workhorse, Lee was an artist, and Corey Kluber barreled through the competition with strikeouts.
His strikeout mastery would reach its peak three years later.
Corey Kluber, 2017
April has never been kind to Kluber, and was not in 2017. He started the year off kilter, and then got hurt in May. From June to the end of the year Corey Kluber was basically 2020 Shane Bieber with fewer strikeouts, and better control.
Kluber in 2017 channeled his 2016 postseason success into an entire season; he was untouchable. Kluber led the league in every major statistical category besides strikeouts (where Chris Sale reigned supreme). Kluber was a beast on the mound, tossing three shutouts and five complete games. At his best, Kluber's best games rivaled Gaylord Perry's extra inning affairs in game score including a shutout on July 19th against Baltimore, striking out 11 walking none.
in the end: Kluber beat out Chris Sale decisively for the award; his adjusted ERA+ of 202 easily paced the league, and he only pitched 10 innings fewer than Sale despite starting three fewer games. In terms of game dominance Sale lagged Kluber, with only one complete game on the year (and it was not even nine innings).
The ink is not dry, yet, on Shane Bieber's 2020 season; he has one start left on September 23rd, but Bieber decisively leads the field in the Cy Young race, and his season is (in some ways) as strange as Gaylord Perry's in 1972 (which is of course mostly not Bieber's fault). If Bieber wins (and does not throw a complete game in his last start) he will be the first Indian to win a Cy Young without a complete game. Surprisingly this is not historically unprecedented: Blake Snell won the Cy Young Award without ever pitching even eight innings; Max Scherzer never completed a game either in 2013. The game, in short, is changing.
However, where Bieber lacks in start length he makes up for it with shear dominance over batters. Bieber is averaging nearly 14 strikeouts per nine innings, nobody else is within two strikeouts of Bieber. He leads the league in strikeouts with 112, no other pitcher even has 100. Bieber has become as dominant a starter as any in baseball. Bieber has struck out at least eight batters in every game this year. Bieber's strikeout pace is historically unprecedented (no starting pitcher has struck out 14 batters per nine); Gerrit Cole came close last year (although he was slightly behind Bieber's current pace), the next closest is Randy Johnson in 2001.
That might be as good a place as any to stop on Bieber: he's striking out more batters per nine than Randy Johnson, an insane pace.
Conclusion
I am hesitant to rank Bieber's season against the full seasons. I do believe Kluber's 2017 pace is around as good as Bieber's current pace. We will never know how well Bieber would pitch this year given a full 30+ starts. Looking at the remainder they're a mixed bag, if I had to rank the seasons I would rank them:
-Corey Kluber, 2017
-Cliff Lee, 2008
-Gaylord Perry, 1972
-Corey Kluber, 2014
-Shane Bieber, 2020*
-C.C. Sabathia, 2007
Bieber's asterisk is entirely unearned by Bieber; it's not his fault we will not play a full year in 2020. However, I think it's fair to suspect, given a full season, Bieber would falter off his pace somewhat. Every pitcher on this list had downturns in a full 162 game season, and I see no reason to suspect Bieber would as well.