It's not over yet

This is meant a s counterpoint of sorts to Commissioner Nico’s valid complaints about MLB's poor handling of this COVID season.

There's no question baseball has handled this poorly. Manfred has handled this poorly. With all the references to the volume of the COVID protocols (114 pages, apparently) it seems even MLB notices the poor regard for social distancing visible on the field. Perhaps MLB is able to convince equipment managers and locker room attendants how important it is to prevent outbreaks. But it seems MLB's COVID rulemaking on the field is respected in the same way that their rules toward not doctoring the ball, about remaining in the batter's box for the next pitch (or the on-deck circle for that matter) and demanding that umpires should actually look at replay video before calling a tag out or home run.

Manfred is apparently unable to get across to players that their behavior on the field will greatly impact the outcome of MLB's attempt to play a season and the playoffs. He's a weak leader, the players seem to regard him no better than the fans do. Perhaps worse after the "piece of metal" comment. Players simply must be convinced that having less fun (and less contact) today could be the difference between September being less fun that normal or boring for everyone because baseball isn't played at all.

I said in another thread that LeBron James, despite not being a commissioner is a stronger leader for the players in his league than Manfred is in the league he runs. James leads from the front, with intelligent takes and a zeal which resonates with the players in his league. I strongly feel NBA player leaders like him could convince their players to bubble because it's necessary in a exactly they way that Manfred can't.

Now, to move past that, as was asked, where does baseball go next?

An idea that baseball is going to stop because of this is based either upon the idea that MLB expected no positives or that MLB was going to try to get in a season if they can. Both of these ideas are wrong. MLB knew there would be cases. And it would seem they knew there would be clusters too. This current situation has seemed to show that there is a reasonably low transmission of the virus between teams. This makes it easier to schedule games when we know that testing has a multiple day delay from contraction to positive.

And that's important because the idea isn't that MLB is going to play if they can. That's not the case at all. They're doing this for the money, the business. Given this they are going to play unless it is shown they cannot. Given this, certainly losing half a team (the Marlins) is a concern. It's a lot less concern than if it were the Yankees though (props to Tony Kornheiser for this comment). MLB can tolerate the loss of the Marlins. They can tolerate some communication to the Phillies (esp. since two cases reported were false positives). And the Cardinals outbreak (one player so far, plus a an off-field staff), while concerning isn't going to stop the show either.

MLB does have to figure out how to reconcile the standings given all this. It's not so bad right now, but they don't want a scenario where a team in a high position can no longer play at the end of the season and thus "freezes" their winning percentage, getting them to the playoffs. They have to figure out if/when teams are going to be forced to concede games in order to present this.

And they'll have to figure out what to do about the playoffs. You can't have teams dropping in and out of the playoffs. Playoff games must be played. They probably have to figure out a bubble for the playoffs. And if they have to do it then, when why not now? Commissioner Nico already has a plan they can crib from.