2018 Rays - AAA call-ups anyone

I hope the Rays FO learned one thing this season, if nothing else. Signing scrubs (e.g., Plouffe, Espinosa, Puello) is a waste of salary space. These guys just aren't any better than the guys down in AAA who the Rays don't see a long term future with and can promote at any time (e.g., Shane Peterson (RF), Johnny Field (OF), Patrick Leonard (3B), Taylor Featherston, Jake Hager and Kean Wong (2B)). The reason I mention that is because the Rays are going to struggle with payroll in 2018, as their position players are getting expensive (these five guys alone take up over 1/2 of projected payroll - Longo at $13.5mm; KK at $5.7mm; Ramos at $8.5mm; Souza and Dickerson combined - probably another $10mm).

For that reason, I am hoping that the Rays don't sign their usual 2-4 cheap fill-ins (one year contracts at $1mm - $4mm) and just roll the dice on AAA players as back-ups to start the season. Especially if you assume that both Jake Bauers (1B) and Willy Adames (SS) will be mid-season call ups after the Super 2 window passes and that they will get the majority of playing time at their respective positions after being called up (which I do, as they are top prospects of the organization). Why waste the salary on players that aren't going to be with the team in July? I'd rather the team use whatever salary they can spend on signing a good 1B/DH type player and a LF, as those players should get significant playing time even with the Bauers/Adames call-ups. Resigning LoMo works for me, and fills the first need. As for LF, it seems to me that Corey Dickerson played great in the first half of 2017 when he was primarily a DH, and his performance really fell after Rasmus retired and Corey became the primary LF. If I’m the Rays, I do all I can to find a replacement for Rasmus and keep Dickerson at DH. Neither of these guys are going to come cheap, but hopefully the Rays can allocate $10mm total to both positions and fill those needs, ideally with one or both being able to hit LHP. That leaves Robertson as the primary 2B (Miller won't be tendered, right?) and Duffy as the primary SS until Adames is called up (Hech will be too expensive). Once Adames is called up, Duffy and Robertson share 2B and infield relief. That seems like a good plan to me, assuming of course that the Rays want to keep payroll at or under $70mm.

As for pitching, the Rays have no hope of resigning Cobb, but they should still make a QO to him. Under the new CBA, the Rays would receive draft pick compensation if Alex signs for more than $50mm, and that seems very likely to me. Of course, I've been saying that since spring training. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rays traded Odorizzi, Andriese, Boxberger and Colome before spring training. We can either replace those guys internally (Andriese/Boxberger) or their performance isn't worth the cost (Odorizzi/Box/Colome), and as I've pointed out above, payroll will be a real problem for the Rays in 2018. A rotation of Archer, Eovaldi, Snell, Faria and whoever holds the 5th spot until Honeywell is called up (e.g., Pruitt, Yarbrough, Chirinos, DeLeon) should be a very good rotation; whereas a bullpen consisting of some or all of Pruitt, Yarbrough, Chirinos, DeLeon, Hu, Jennings, Cedeno, Whitley, Stanek, Schultz, Kolarek, Kittredge, Alvarado, and Roe will be just fine. Frankly, the Rays won't be able to afford adding anyone to that bunch, unless they trade for a good cost controlled option. Payroll being what it is, the pitching side of the 2018 Rays will probably be allocated only 1/3 of total payroll, and Archer will take up 1/3 of that (at a whopping $6.5 mm), requiring a very large number of 1st - 3rd year players filling out the Pen and earning league minimum salary.

But you know what? I'm really excited for what next year brings. I don't see our rotation taking a step back, and the rotation had a good year. The Pen should be better, with most of the young pitchers getting valuable experience this year. Getting full years from Ramos and KK will see real benefits I'm thinking (especially with KK providing all world D and hitting over .100 OPS better than Mallex). Our weak spots next year (2B and SS) will be no worse than this year, and could be fixed by calling up Adames, Robertson taking the next step and getting a healthy year from Duffy. Throw in Honeywell and Bauers, and things could get exciting next year. It would have been nice to make the playoffs this year, but next year looks promising to me.

I welcome comments.