Why SF Giants will be able to afford top Japanese pitching phenom Roki Sasaki

For all the well-warranted discussion of Juan Soto, another in-their-prime superstar has officially hit the free-agent market. And for the Giants, he’s far more financially feasible.

This past Saturday, the Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they will begin the process of posting 23-year-old right-hander Roki Sasaki. Considered by many to be one of the most best pitchers on the planet, Sasaki stands to make his long-awaited MLB debut next season.

Over four seasons with the Marines in NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball), Sasaki has a 2.10 ERA with 505 strikeouts over 394 2/3 innings. On April 10, 2022, Sasaki pitched a 19-strikeout perfect game, striking out an NPB-record 13 consecutive batters in the process. During the World Baseball Classic, Sasaki dazzled with a combination of triple-digit heat paired with a tumbling splitter and solid slider.

Sasaki took a step back last year, both in terms of stuff and production (2.35 ERA), and durability remains a concern. That said, there are few players on this earth who can say they are more talented than “The Monster of the Reiwa Era.”

Despite Sasaki’s value, however, just about every team in Major League Baseball will be able to afford Sasaki due to the intricacies of the NPB/MLB posting system. Even with the Giants expected to slash payroll, according to a report by The Athletic, they, too, should have the financial resources to sign Sasaki.

“There were many things that did not go well during my five years with the Marines, but I was always supported by my teammates, staff, front office, and fans, and was able to come this far by concentrating only on baseball,” Sasaki said in a team statement posted on the social media platform X. “I will do my best to work my way up from my minor contract to become the best player in the world, so that I will have no regrets in my one and only baseball career and so that I can live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me this time.”

The Sasaki sweepstakes will serves as one of the first tests for Buster Posey, San Francisco’s new president of baseball operations. The Giants likely aren’t the frontrunners, but they aren’t without pitches.

Could Posey persuade Sasaki to be the face of a legacy franchise and form a dynamic one-two punch alongside Logan Webb? Maybe Sasaki might be enthralled by the idea of consistently competing against the likes of the Padres’ Yu Darvish or the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, all of whom were teammates on Samurai Japan during the World Baseball Classic, instead of joining them. Oracle Park is a pitcher’s paradise, and Patrick Bailey, now the owner of a Gold Glove, is arguably the best defensive catcher in baseball.

“I think we’re going to look at every possibility available to make our team as good as we can,” Posey said during general manager Zack Minasian’s introductory Zoom.

If a player wants to jump from NPB to MLB before accruing nine years of professional experience, they must be “posted” by their NPB team. Last year, for example, the Orix Buffaloes posted Yamamoto. The Dodgers not only signed Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract, but paid the Buffaloes a posting fee of roughly $50 million. If a player wants to leave NPB before turning 25, however, they are considered an international amateur free agent and are only eligible to sign a minor-league contract, plus a bonus paid from a team’s international bonus pool.

The deadline for NPB teams to post players is Dec. 15. Once posted, there is a 45-day window where the player can negotiate with every team.

It has yet to be determined whether Sasaki will be part of the 2024 or 2025 international amateur class. If he’s part of the 2025 class, bonuses range from $5.1 million to $7.6 million. Due to signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman last offseason, the Giants’ signing bonus pool is $5.1 million. Most teams have already used most of their international bonus pool money for 2024, but if Sasaki signs after Jan. 15 — the date that next year’s international signing period begins — teams will have more international bonus pool money available.

Sasaki’s move is not without precedent. In 2017, a 23-year-old Shohei Ohtani signed with the Angels that had a $2.3 million signing bonus. Before signing with the Dodgers for $700 million, Ohtani made the league minimum for his first three years before three years of arbitration.

Ohtani’s situation differed from Sasaki in that Ohtani was posted under the previous posting agreement between NPB and MLB. Under the old agreement, the Nippon Ham Fighters, Ohtani’s NPB team, secured a posting fee of $20 million, the maximum allowed at the time. Under this new agreement, MLB teams now have to pay percentages of guaranteed value. For minor-league contracts, MLB teams must pay NPB teams 25 percent of the signing bonus.

If Sasaki, who reportedly wanted to be posted last year, waited until he was 25, he likely would have commanded a contract similar to Yamamoto. The Marines, in turn, would’ve received a much higher posting fee. The move isn’t financially beneficial for the Marines, but general manager Naoki Matsumoto said in a team statement, “After making a comprehensive judgment over the past five years, we have decided to respect his wish.”

With money essentially a non-factor, Sasaki’s decision will be determined simply by where his personal preferences. Does he want to join forces with Ohtani and Yamamoto as the Dodgers try to win back-to-back titles? Does he want to play for the Padres alongside Darvish, a friend and mentor? What about a team like the Rays, who have a long-established track record of pitching development?