Four storylines to watch as Lakers go without Anthony Davis
Editor’s note: This is the Friday, Feb. 19 edition of the Purple & Bold Lakers newsletter from reporter Kyle Goon. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.
LeBron James still leans on Anthony Davis.
It’s not to make a shot. Or get the block if a driver gets behind him. Or grab a rebound. But for the next four weeks or so, James will still be talking with his teammate to see what he sees from the bench.
“We’re talking about the game, that possession, that half, that quarter: What can I do better?” James said Thursday night. “Does he see something that I could have done better? Does he see some things that we could have done better? Because he’s still a big extension of our real team, even if he’s not in uniform.”
Davis won’t be in uniform for a while, after the Lakers acknowledged that it will take him an estimated four weeks to return to play from a right calf strain. That takes out a huge piece of the team for a critical stretch of the season. That absence was hard-felt as the Lakers fell to the Brooklyn Nets, one of a handful of strong teams they’ll face with Davis out of the lineup.
The Lakers could also be without Dennis Schröder, but it’s unclear how long his absence due to COVID-19 protocols will be as of midday on Friday. But in this season where injuries and unexpected absences abound, no one is feeling sorry for the Lakers finally hitting some bumps. So with Davis out for the next stretch, here’s what to watch for as the Lakers try to muddle through:
1. The standings battle: The top of the West is ridiculously good at the moment. The Lakers are No. 2 as of Friday morning, with the Utah Jazz (24-5) sitting 2.5 games ahead after winning 20 of their last 21 games. The Clippers, though playing without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George recently, are just a game back behind the Lakers and quietly having a tremendous offensive season. The Trail Blazers (yes, with all their injuries) and Phoenix Suns are frisky, just a few games back, too; The Lakers play both of them before the All-Star break, which means they could be in for a precipitous rise — or fall.
The standings matter insofar as the match-ups matter: The path back to the Finals (at the moment) looks easier if the Lakers only have to take on one of the Jazz and the Clippers. With three teams in the West that truly look ready to compete for a championship, getting stuck in the 2-3 second round match-up isn’t ideal.
Sure the standings will change plenty between now and May, but remember that it’s impossible to count on all games being played this season. If the Lakers have to postpone a few games in the second half of the season, they’ll have less ability to make up ground once they’re fully healthy. Every win this season actually does matter a little more, even if the Lakers are just managing to hang on to a top-3 spot while Davis is out.
2. Where are the threes? It’s a question that gets a little tiresome for the asking, but hey, it’s a continuing theme. The Lakers can’t hit 3-pointers consistently. They often start out very slow, which continued against Brooklyn on Thursday night when they were 8 for 30.
It was 15 games ago when the Lakers hit a season-high 19 threes against Milwaukee. They were the third-best 3-point shooting team in the league at the time, and there was a fraternity-like sense of camaraderie about shooting percentages, which were sky-high for almost every shooter on the team.
Since then, the Lakers have shot 33.3 percent or lower in 11 of the last 14 games. Over that stretch, their 30.2 percentage on 3-pointers is the lowest in the NBA. The Lakers are still getting about a league-average amount of open looks, per NBA tracking data. They just aren’t hitting them. Not one Lakers rotation player is hitting above 35 percent in the last 14 games (James is the closest at 34.4 percent).
The Lakers continue to hew to the principle of averages. They weren’t the red-hot 3-point shooting team that started the season, hitting above what they expected. By the same token, Frank Vogel said, they won’t always be the cold-shooting team that they are right now.
“To start the season, we were shooting a little bit better than our expected average and of late we’re shooting a lot lower than our expected average,” he said. “So, we’ll continue to emphasis working for shot-quality and have our guys honor their work and water will find its level.”
3. Dizzying turnovers: Another area where the Lakers have really weirdly struggled is taking care of the ball. They have the fifth-highest turnover rate (15.1 percent) in the NBA this season, and a distressing chunk of that can be attributed to James, who is averaging 3.7 turnovers per game. Some of the Lakers’ turnovers are gambles in transition, where they are devastatingly effective. Some of the turnovers are communication errors between teammates who haven’t had a lot of time to play together on the practice court. Some of them are lost handles in traffic.
One striking on-court/off-court number of Davis is turnover rate: The Lakers have just a 14.2 turnover rate when he’s on the floor compared to a 15.9 percent rate when he’s off. That’s partially defined by how Davis’ offensive possessions take shape: There’s a handful of possessions each game when the Lakers simply give him the ball and let him work, with little passing involved. When he’s not on the floor for post-ups, it usually takes more passes to get a high-quality shot.
The Lakers have competently covered for some of these mistakes with good transition defense that has kept those turnovers from becoming points. A good example was Thursday night, as Brooklyn scored just 14 points off of 16 Lakers turnovers (the Lakers had 25 points off of Brooklyn’s 13 giveaways). But cutting down that number would help the efficiency of the Lakers’ offense, and give them more attempts per game to win against 3-point-heavy shooting teams like the Nets or the Jazz.
4. LeBron’s minutes: Always a sticky topic, the absence of Davis will probably drive the hand-wringing over LeBron’s minutes to new heights. It’s not a great situation for the Lakers to be in: They need the 36-year-old to play at an elite level to win games, but they need him to be healthy and fresh at the end of the year, too. James is at an age where many fans simply believe he should be granted rest in select games (load management), but he’s defied that expectation by playing every game so far, and winning the Lakers’ streak of three overtime games earlier this month.
James minutes are rising by the month, from 31.4 mpg in December to 37.7 mpg in February. He averaged just 34.6 minutes per game last year, so expect the Lakers to try to hover in that range and keep strict rotations up until the point when they can determine whether James is needed in the clutch to win games. The last five minutes of the fourth quarter is usually that marker — if the game is in single digits, James is in. And those worrying that he’s losing his grip should note that not only are the Lakers the best clutch play team in the league this year (12-3 in games within 5 points in the last five minutes), but James is also among the top performers in those situations, averaging 4.4 points and shooting nearly 46 percent from 3-point range in those instances.
It’s not as simple as “he needs to play more” or “he needs to play less.” At 36, James has good days, when he can leap into the sky, and iffy days, when he looks slow-footed and less explosive. There are days when his outside shot is unbeatable, or his turnaround jumper is unguardable, and days when those shots don’t fall at all. There’s a fluidity to his conditioning and minutes demand that is hard to appreciate in its full nuance, which the Lakers and James’ team of training and conditioning experts understand better than a chorus of fans who want to coat him in bubble wrap until the first round of the playoffs.
The Lakers need him to win now, Vogel acknowledged, but there are ways to take more off his plate even as he’s playing a lot of minutes.
“He’s gotta play his game and we gotta find ways where he can impact the game sort of with less energy,” he said. “Putting him at the elbow, putting him at the low post where he’s not running a million pick-and-rolls, and just try to manage it that way. But he’s got a great feel for that. If he needs a blow, he’s gonna get himself out or ask for sub. We’re looking at those types of ways to, within his minutes, make sure he’s not carrying too much of a load.”
But let’s face it: It’s not the first time LeBron James has put a team on his shoulders.
— Kyle Goon
Editor’s note: Thanks for reading the Purple & Bold Lakers newsletter from reporter Kyle Goon. To receive the newsletter in your inbox, sign up here.
Down a Brow
- Not as bad as it could have been – The primary feeling a lot of Lakers had when Anthony Davis’ MRI returned as a strain was actually relief.
- More hits – The Lakers learned late yesterday that Dennis Schröder would also be missing time, due to health and safety protocols.
- Brooklyn represents – In a battle of two short-handed contenders, James Harden and Kyrie Irving had things well in hand for the Nets.
- The monster the Lakers helped make – While LeBron said Harden’s trade didn’t have much to do with the Lakers, they’ll be forever linked to the move that made Brooklyn’s superteam.
- Not fazed by Wolves – Karl Anthony-Towns and Minnesota weren’t a match for the Lakers, even without AD.
- The rising cost of business – Mark Whicker points out that even though AD was worth the cost, the players the Lakers cast off are doing quite well.
- Kyle Kuzma’s moment – The fourth-year forward’s growth can be measured on the court in his rebounding and defense after early years of chasing points.
- Denver disappointment – After Davis went off limping, the Lakers didn’t really stand a chance against the Nuggets.
- A slow, slow roll – Why have the Lakers given up so much ground in first quarters?
- Robert Horry takes his shots – I asked Big Shot Bob to weigh in on what he would tell the Lakers’ supporting cast.