Why One Event in History Tells us a U.S.-Iran War Can Still Happen

Edward Chang

Security,

Now that Iran has confessed to shooting down Ukrainian International Airlines 752 (PS752), could the tragedy present an opportunity to de-escalate its conflict with the United States which, just recently, threatened to combust into a major regional conflagration?

Now that Iran has confessed to shooting down Ukrainian International Airlines 752 (PS752), could the tragedy present an opportunity to de-escalate its conflict with the United States which, just recently, threatened to combust into a major regional conflagration?

History suggests it just might. The incident is highly reminiscent of the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 in 1988, which also occurred during a “hot” phase of the U.S.-Iran conflict and opened the door for an end to the twentieth century’s third-deadliest war.

Early morning of July 3 of that year, the U.S. Navy guided-missile cruiser USS Vincennes (CG-49) had returned to the Persian Gulf after escorting a tanker convoy through the Strait of Hormuz. After receiving reports from a friendly warship of an imminent attack on a commercial vessel, Vincennes, under the command of Captain Will Rogers, headed back towards the Strait, on the way hearing “explosions” coming from the same direction.

For almost a year the United States had been conducting Operation Earnest Will in the Gulf, in response to the escalating “Tanker War” between Saddam Hussein’s Ba’athist Iraq and Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic Republic. The Tanker War was the latest chapter in a then eight-year grudge match between the Middle East heavyweights, which would ultimately consume a million lives. Only now, neutral shipping was getting caught in the crossfire.