How did the USMNT miss the 2018 FIFA World Cup?

The U.S. men’s national team is back in the World Cup after an eight-year wait. But even as the USMNT takes the field on Nov. 21 against Wales, the shadow of 2018’s failure — and the pressure to move on from it — will be evident.

So, let’s revisit what happened.

The USMNT did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia after a stunning — and embarrassing — road 2-1 loss to lowly Trinidad & Tobago on Oct. 10, 2017 in the final day of CONCACAF’s World Cup qualifying. It was the first time that the USMNT had missed the World Cup since 1986. And while the qualifying road in CONCACAF is more difficult than pundits like to admit, the region certainly lacks the elite-level talent that you’ll see in UEFA and CONMEBOL.

The USMNT had no excuse to miss out on Russia, really.

Still, the signs of trouble were prevalent throughout that qualifying cycle.

The U.S. Soccer Federation opted to retain then-head coach Jurgen Klinsmann after the USMNT’s surprise advancement out of the “Group of Death” in 2014. The team was one missed sitter away from upsetting an ultra-talented Belgium squad and a trip to the quarterfinals. But as impressive as the 2014 showing was for the USMNT, you rarely see national teams keep coaches around for multiple World Cup cycles — especially when you’re looking at a tactically limited coach like Klinsmann.

Klinsmann’s tenure with the USMNT finally fell apart at the final round of CONCACAF qualifying — known at the time as The Hex. The U.S. formula for qualification had generally been “win at home, draw on the road.” And sure, that lacked ambition, but when you fail to even meet those minimum standards, trouble starts building quickly. So, when the U.S. lost its Hex opener at home to Mexico and followed that up with a 4-0 road loss to Costa Rica, the USSF fired Klinsmann in hopes of salvaging the suddenly uncertain World Cup qualification hopes.

Stepping in as head coach was Bruce Arena, the longtime former USMNT coach who led the program to a quarterfinal appearance in 2002. Arena, though, was just a retread who favored homegrown MLS players over dual nationals and the young talent making waves in Europe. Outside of a teenaged Christian Pulisic, Arena’s squad selections closely resembled the group we saw in 2014. This was essentially a wasted cycle as younger players didn’t get an opportunity to acclimate with the U.S. program in high-leverage competition.

Arena went into the job with the short-sighted goal of qualify above everything else, and he’d leave developing the next generation to the next coach. But to take that approach, you have to be certain that you’re going to qualify. And that’s where Arena failed spectacularly.

Even with the new coach and new philosophy, the USMNT enjoyed just marginal improvement in qualifying before the final FIFA window. It won two games (home games against Honduras and Trinidad & Tobago), lost a costly home match to Costa Rica and drew three more (needing a late goal to secure a tie at Honduras). Despite all that, the USMNT went into the final two matches in a great position to at least make the intercontinental play-off that the fourth-place team moves into.

That window started off well too. Qualification looked all-but-certain after the USMNT took care of business at home against Panama. An early goal from Pulisic ignited the team into a 4-0 route.

The USMNT — now in third place — went into the final matchday just needing a draw against last-place Trinidad & Tobago, and Arena stuck with the exact same lineup as the Panama game despite the travel and short turnaround. Even with a loss, the U.S. could have qualified if either Panama or Honduras didn’t win their final matches. Basically, the only way the USMNT could miss out on the World Cup would be a loss to Trinidad and wins by both Panama AND Honduras.

That’s exactly what happened.

Terrible goalkeeping from a slow-to-react Tim Howard put the USMNT in a two-goal hole that Pulisic was able to cut into with a second-half goal. But it wasn’t enough as the U.S. lost, 2-1. The qualification failure was confirmed when the surprising results elsewhere in CONCACAF sent the U.S. packing for the first time in decades.

There’s no simple answer as to how the USMNT missed out in 2018. The failure was brewing for years, but it came crashing down on a single night in Couva.