For early college football value, look at QB John Mateer for Heisman, Oklahoma for national title
LAS VEGAS — Quarterback John Mateer first demanded my attention two seasons ago, when Washington State trailed by 12 points early in the fourth quarter at San Diego State.
He willed the Cougars to a rousing triumph, capping one drive with a 34-yard touchdown pass, covering 80 yards on four plays, and providing the game-decider on a two-yard scamper.
Fiery and rambunctious, Mateer hit the portal, landing in Norman, Oklahoma. Before his first game for the Sooners, he was slapped with gambling-related allegations.
Again fiery and rambunctious, he denied everything, saying he and friends were just goofing around a few years earlier. The drama evaporated.
Mateer got banged up a bit on the field, and Oklahoma lost to Texas in Dallas and at home to Ole Miss.
This season, Sooners boss Brent Venables and general manager Jim Nagy obtained some weapons for Mateer, who can be a dangerous runner.
And in my scavenging for early college football value, I nabbed Mateer, at 30-to-1 Heisman odds Sunday at the Westgate SuperBook, and Oklahoma, 40-1 title odds at the South Point on March 3.
The landscape
The CFP national championship game will be staged in Vegas, at Allegiant Stadium, on Jan. 25, 2027.
Notre Dame (+800) and Texas Tech (14-1) must be favored because they’re the only programs with FanDuel-projected win totals of 11½. Next, at 10½, are Indiana (+700), Miami (10-1) and Oregon (10-1).
By most accounts, LSU (13-1) and new coach Lane Kiffin conquered all with their 40-player portal haul, namely quarterback Sam Leavitt (for approximately $5.5 million) from Arizona State.
The Bayou Bengals are at 8½ (over -150, under +122).
Ohio State (+800) and returning quarterback Julian Sayin are at 9½ (over -158, under +128). Odds and prices subject to change.
The Sooners sit at 7½, over -105. They play at Michigan and at Georgia in September, dodge Alabama and LSU, and again get Ole Miss at home.
I’m banking on a greater comfort level for Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, whom Venables brought with Mateer from the Palouse.
The Sooners assembled a top-20 transfer class, the jewel being 6-foot receiver Trell Harris from Virginia. Plus, Isaiah Sategna, Mateer’s favorite target, returns.
Moreover, I bought a 40-1 title position on Ole Miss, where returning QB Trinidad Chambliss’ 3,937 passing yards ranked third last season. I also got 40-1 on Utah quarterback Devon Dampier, the nation’s lone returnee to his 2025 team who ran for at least 835 yards (with 10 TDs) and threw for at least 2,000 (2,490, with 24 TDs and five picks).
Rut-Roh
Long Island handicapper Tom Barton jumped on Rutgers under 4½, at -102 (or risk $102 to win $100), at FanDuel.
“Their schedule is absolutely brutal,” he said. “Outside of UMass and Howard, I have a hard time finding a single win.
“Maybe they travel and beat BC or Maryland or NU, but they’d have to beat all three because they won’t beat USC, Indiana, Michigan, Sparty or Nebraska, all at home, and won’t travel to beat Penn State or Wisconsin.”
In coach Greg Schiano’s seventh season, 18th overall at Rutgers, Barton envisions three, maybe four, victories.
“If everything falls perfect,” Barton said, “I just can’t see five.”
Barton and I hailed that great promo, featuring Schiano and “The Sopranos” star and Rutgers grad James Gandolfini, in 2001.
“I actually like Schiano,” Barton said. “It’s just a tough, tough schedule.”
Fickle Badgers
Dallas ’capper Sean Higgs hesitates to lead off with Wisconsin under 6½, at +114.
“Books aren’t in the habit of giving away money,” he said of the plus price, “but I don’t see the Badgers winning seven. Plus, give me Luke Fickell to get canned this season.”
Fickell is in his fourth season in Madison; Wisconsin went 5-7 and 4-8, respectively, the last two seasons.
“Paul Chryst didn’t have a losing season before going 2-3 and getting canned,” Higgs said. “For me, they need to sweep Michigan State, Rutgers and Minnesota at home, plus Maryland and Purdue on the road, to hit this number. No way. Not happening.”
Higgs hints
Additionally, Higgs has Ohio State over 9½ (-158) and Penn State over the same figure (+122).
The Buckeyes have lost three games in a season once since 2004. They travel to Texas and Indiana, get Michigan and Oregon at home. Higgs believes in Sayin, with 11-1 Heisman odds at BetMGM.
“Last season, freshman quarterback, a 13-10 defeat in the Big Ten title game, lost a tough game to Miami in the playoffs,” Higgs said. “This team will grow from those experiences.”
The Nittany Lions slipped from national contenders to pretenders, losing six of their first nine games, getting coach James Franklin booted. They snagged Matt Campbell from Iowa State.
“He brings 20 guys with him and his quarterback, Rocco Becht,” Higgs said. “Tough games at Washington and at Michigan, USC at home. But the Huskies are projected for 7½ wins. The Wolverines? New regime.
“Worth it for me.”
His inkling about Texas Tech at 11½ is to wager under, but -188 is hefty. On Texas A&M at 8½, he also favors under, at -105, because of offensive coordinator Collin Klein bolting for Kansas State and a difficult schedule.
Virginia Tech, whose total is 6½, hired Franklin.
“It’s a team I will want to back this season,” he said. “I think they open 5-0, but then it gets tougher.”
National-title odds
Odds Team
+700 Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas
+800 Indiana, Oregon
10-1 Georgia
12-1 Texas Tech
14-1 LSU
18-1 Miami, Texas A&M
25-1 Alabama
30-1 USC
40-1 Ole Miss, Oklahoma
50-1 Michigan, Florida
Source: Westgate SuperBook
Big Ten projected win totals
Wins Under Over Team
7½ -170 +138 Illinois
10½ -104 -118 Indiana
7½ +126 -154 Iowa
4½ +106 -130 Maryland
8½ -130 +106 Michigan
3½ +122 -150 Michigan State
5½ -104 -118 Minnesota
8½ -148 +120 Nebraska
5½ +100 -122 Northwestern
9½ +128 -158 Ohio State
10½ -142 +116 Oregon
9½ -150 +122 Penn State
3½ -142 +116 Purdue
4½ +116 -142 Rutgers
5½ +122 -150 UCLA
8½ -138 +112 USC
7½ +118 -144 Washington
6½ +114 -140 Wisconsin
Source: FanDuel