Little bugs

When I zoom out, it does feel a little strange to be convening a crisis conference when Arsenal top the Premier League by four points and have just won all eight of their Champions League Group phase games- an achievement that has simply been swallowed by the ennui enveloping the Arsenal fan base.

But that is not to say that concerns are not justified in recent weeks. I think my main conclusion is that there isn’t really a single, simple diagnosable issue. I also don’t think there are major issues (well, maybe one that I will come onto later)- the January transfer window is passing and nobody really seems to think new players are the answer and I think that is absolutely right.

Instead of a major elephant in the room, we have some tiny little bugs which are laying eggs in our brain and hatching into a volcano of anxiety. Here are some of the things that I think have been causing the Arsenal engine to splutter a little over the last few weeks or so.

Lack of chemistry

Arsenal signed eight senior players this summer. Even if we slightly relegate Norgaard and Kepa to scarcely involved squad players, that is still six players that Arsenal are integrating into their team. Three attackers, two defenders and a midfielder. In defence and midfield, I believe these to be micro issues. The first choice back four has not really changed since last season, with Hincapie and Mosquera providing valuable back up and rotation.

In midfield, Thomas Partey has been replaced by the superior Martin Zubimendi (though I do think there is a midfield wrinkle that I will get to later). In attack, Bukayo Saka was really the only untouchable, I think Kai Havertz would have fallen into that category too were he fit. Arsenal stacked the deck by signing Madueke, Eze and Gyokeres.

My own view is that the club probably only needed to buy one of Eze or Madueke, not least since Nwaneri’s path to first-team football has been blocked in the process of signing both. I think there is such a thing as having too much depth and too much choice and I always felt the club just toed the line into ‘too many cooks.’

The emotional quadruple substitution against Manchester United that saw three fundamental attacking changes, with Eze, Merino and Gyokeres coming in for Jesus, Odegaard and Zubimendi, was not well thought out. It revealed a manager who still doesn’t really know who and what his best attacking combinations are and when you have so many players, that can enervate partnerships and chemistry.

Squad building is a really fine balance, you need options but too many options can confuse things and I honestly feel Arsenal are closer to the latter. I think that is neatly emphasised by the spell the team enjoyed in October and November when Madueke, Odegaard, Gyokeres and Martinelli were all missing.

Arsenal opted for Merino supporting Saka, Trossard and Eze ahead of him. It was by no means perfect; but Arsenal looked stable (if unexciting a lot of the time) until…they got to the Sunderland game in early November and ran out of juice due to a lack of options. It’s a tightrope Spud, it’s a fookin tightrope.

Fatigue

 

 

I have labelled this section fatigue but I can’t be absolutely sure that’s what we are seeing in certain instances. Part of my suspicion is informed by everyone else’s form, before Arsenal drew two games and lost one in the Premier League recently, Manchester City drew three in a row and then lost one. Erling Haaland didn’t score an open play goal in 10 appearances before netting against Galatasaray on Wednesday.

The fortunate thing about Arsenal’s wobble is that everyone is wobbling. The Premier League is a big old mountain of jelly and I suspect the ever increasing schedule (City played at the Club World Cup during the summer) and the increasing quality of Premier League teams outside of the ‘elite’ is making it tougher.

I see signs of fatigue in Arsenal because they have started to concede goals. What is peculiar is the manner and the timing of the goals they concede. Four Arsenal games finished 3-2 during January (three times in the Gunners’ favour). Four 3-2s, two 0-0s, a 3-1 and a 4-1. We have seen the team switch off far more often during this month.

Many of the goals conceded are either uncharacteristicly significant errors (Gabriel at Bournemouth or Zubimendi against Manchester United) or else they are occurring just after Arsenal score, which suggests to me that the players are switching off. In the 0-0 draws with Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, Arsenal never looked in any trouble of conceding.

At Bournemouth, when the game should have been over at 3-1, the Gunners concede five minutes after securing a two goal lead. At Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, they concede eight minutes after going 2-0 ahead and 12 minutes after going 3-1 ahead, allowing Chelsea back into a tie where they rarely threatened.

At Inter, they were pegged back within eight minutes of taking the lead before getting a grip of the game again and winning 3-1. Against United, they concede eight minutes after going 1-0 up and three minutes after levelling the game at 2-2. When the game state starts to favour Arsenal, they keep falling asleep at the wheel.

It could be psychological but that doesn’t really explain why it doesn’t happen at 0-0. But whether it be down to fatigue- physical and mental- or a case of the yips, Arsenal’s games are becoming more chaotic and I don’t look at Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal and associate the scoreline 3-2 with them.

Variance

I think I can boil this down to a single paragraph. Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka are two of Arsenal’s most important players and both are playing below their best. Maybe Arsenal’s early season defensive stinginess was unsustainable at the rate that we witnessed in the autumn when conceding shots on target felt like a personal affront. Intangible factors that may have been slightly generous a few months ago are cashing in those chips now and the wind has turned against the team a little.

Striker woes

There may be reasons for Saka, Odegaard and Trossard’s form declining simultaneously. I wonder if Odegaard is getting a little lost in a much more fluid midfield three this season and whether his role lacks definition. Partey’s immobility was frustrating but, in a way, it defined Odegaard’s role whereas the current interpretation is more malleable.

Declan Rice’s touch and pass numbers have skyrocketed this season. Midfield has changed and I am not sure whether Odegaard is entirely attuned to the new rhythm. But I think there is one pretty simple issue. Arsenal don’t have a reliable striker. It is a very key role, not just when it comes to sticking the ball between the posts but as a connective tissue for the team.

Gyokeres can whack the ball at the goal very hard indeed but, to this point, has struggled with pretty much every other facet of being an elite forward. Gabriel Jesus was always a little inconsistent and frustrating and three knee operations was unlikely to iron out that particular issue for him.

Kai Havertz is Arsenal’s best answer at centre-forward by a distance simply because he is a really good footballer (even if he is not a dead eyed goalscoring striker). He connects Arsenal’s play reliably and consistently (and I don’t think this is a case of an injured player getting better by proxy, I am certain I always felt this way) but it remains to be seen what he is capable of and by when due to his injury issues.

Unfortunately, there just isn’t a fantastic solution to not having a reliable performer at centre-forward. There is only so much tactical jiggery pokery a coach can do to amend for that. You can’t win a Grand Prix in a Ford Fiesta. The solution to that issue is unlikely to appear on the market anytime soon either.

I still think that Arsenal are more than good enough to win the league. I suspect they will get there by tightening up their defensive lapses, that seems to be within the gift of the squad reasonably easily. That glitch is the major outlier in recent weeks. Then Arsenal will probably need one of their attackers to get on a bit of a run to definitely push the team over the line.

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