Time to get that forward line firing

Morning.

So, it’s Monday, the weekend is over and in the end it has turned out to be a net positive for Arsenal. Only one point rather than the three we’d hoped for, but both Man City and Aston Villa lost. Objectively we’re in great shape at the top and as I’ve said quite often of late, I still think there’s room for improvement from this Arsenal team.

Not defensively, although you think that every time you concede a goal, but generally speaking that is our superpower. Even when we don’t play as well as we can, we don’t look like a side that’s going to lose many games. In midfield, as I said yesterday, Mikel Arteta has more tools at his disposal than he often uses, and I believe there are games when we can lean into more craft than physical power, although I think we can all recognise the manager’s preferences in that regard.

Up front though, and I don’t just mean centre-forward, there’s significant scope for us to do better. Sometimes it feels like we have a real goalscoring problem, and I understand that if even if the reality doesn’t always match up with our perception. This season, Man City have only scored 5 more goals than us, and leaving aside Liverpool who blasted their way to the title last season, they only scored 3 more than us when we didn’t basically have a striker for 4 or 5 months.

But it feels like scoring goals is harder work for us than others. Maybe that’s just our lived experience as Arsenal fans, although the stats presented by Orbinho on BlueSky yesterday were really interesting. I’ll present them here, but go follow him @Orbinho for more.

• Viktor Gyokeres: one goal (a penalty) & no assists in his last 10 Premier League games.
• Gabriel Jesus: one goal & no assists in his last eight Premier League games.
• Noni Madueke: no goals or assists in his last 24 Premier League games.
• Gabriel Martinelli: one goal & no assists in his last 19 Premier League games.
• Bukayo Saka: no goals & two assists from his last eight Premier League games.
• Leandro Trossard: one goal & one assist from his last seven Premier League games.
• Martin Odegaard: one goal & three assists from his last 16 Premier League games.

Of course these players have contributed goals and assists in other competitions, and the ranges are a bit arbitrary (not a criticism, Orb!), but I think it very clearly demonstrates that we have a group of forwards who can do better when it comes to the Premier League – which is our primary focus this season.

Without wanting to go back down Anxiety Lane again this morning, this is my underlying fear, if that’s the right way to put it. I absolutely believe that if we are going to go on and win the league, we need at least one of these guys, plus potentially Kai Havertz if he can return and get himself match-fit enough, to catch fire in terms of goalscoring. I understand that Arteta, in the absence of that one sure-fire goalscorer, focuses on a more collective approach (Mikel Marxteta?), and I understand that. It makes you less reliant on one player who might, if things go south for them in terms of form, injury, or suspension, become a single point of failure.

Nevertheless, our leading scorers in the Premier League right now are Gyokeres and Trossard with 5 each, followed by Saka, Declan Rice, and Eberechi Eze on 4 (3 of which came in that glorious hat-trick in the derby). We have 16 games left to play and nobody is even close to double figures, which is kind of remarkable when you consider that we sit 7 points clear at the top.

Is this a worry, or a comfort? We’re falling short in a key area, but we’re still leading this title race. If we can sort this out by one or two really stepping up in front of goal, we give ourselves an even better chance of going the distance. I think there is a variance in quality with this group of forwards, but would anyone argue that there aren’t at least a couple who are capable of producing much more than they have to this point? If we do that, surely that significantly improves our title chances.

The question is, are these forwards’ numbers now a feature, not a bug, so to speak? Is the way this team is structured, to have that defensive superpower I mentioned, the root cause of the attacking inefficiency, if that’s the right way to put it? Potentially, but I also think we leave a lot behind when it comes to our finishing. The Gabriel Martinelli chance against Forest on Saturday is prime example of one where he, or any player at this level, should score. It’s a bad, bad miss, and as we know, scoring the opening goal is often what cracks a game open and leads to more.

I don’t think you can apply a stylistic critique of a manager’s football when a player makes a mistake like that in front of goal. That’s not an issue of coaching or team structure, just a moment where you expect someone to do better. The only thing you might argue is that improvement could come via the transfer market and having a more efficient finisher at your disposal, but I don’t want to get into a whole thing on our attacking recruitment because that’s a hairy old topic for another day. We have what we have right now.

Ultimately, we have good players who aren’t scoring as much as they’re capable of. If I had to pick one to ‘go nuclear’, it’d be Saka, because we know he’s done it before, but that burden shouldn’t be his alone. I think any of those forward players would acknowledge they can do better, and if they do, those trips down Worry Street, having taken a short-cut down Panic Boulevard, should become less frequent as the finishing line comes into sight.

Ok, I’ll leave it there this morning. Stand by for an Arsecast Extra, as always. We’ve already put out the call for questions on BlueSky @gunnerblog.bsky.social and @arseblog.com. So fire away using the hashtag #arsecastextra – or if you’re an Arseblog Member on Patreon, leave your question in the #arsecast-extra-questions channel on our Discord server. The pod should be out around noon today.

For now, have a good one.

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