Kyle Tucker Free Agency Takes Interesting Turn With This Paul Hembekides Prediction
Four-time All-Star Kyle Tucker was in line for a $400 million contract this offseason, according to various analysts. Despite Tucker not having his best year in 2025 with the Chicago Cubs, his youth and career production speak to his value. In a relatively weak market for outfield bats, Tucker was going to cash in.
Now it seems things are turning out different than expected. The MLB offseason is more than half over; Tucker remains unsigned. The only team that’s been connected to a long-term deal for Tucker is the Toronto Blue Jays, and even they might avoid paying Tucker the big bucks.
It’s looking more and more like Tucker might end up taking a short-term deal with opt-outs, and then perhaps venturing back out onto the market at this time next year to snag his bag of nearly a half-billion dollars.
ESPN’s MLB analyst Paul Hembekides recently made a specific prediction in line with this fate for Tucker. Hembekides believes that Tucker is going to sign a “pillow contract” this offseason; in other words, a short-term, high-AAV deal with opt-outs, not dissimilar from the deal that Alex Bregman signed with the Boston Red Sox in February of 2025.
“Entering the offseason, Kiley McDaniel projected an 11-year, $418 million deal for Tucker, the consensus top free agent on the market,” Hembekides wrote on January 2. “But history suggests caution: The vast majority of free agent mega-contracts are completed early in the winter, with Manny Machado (Feb. 21, 2019) and Bryce Harper (March 1, 2019) standing as notable outliers. As 2026 dawns, if Tucker shifts his sights toward a short, high-AAV deal, nearly every big-market club would have a reason to engage.”
Tucker delivered a solid performance in his debut season with the Cubs in 2025, following a December 2024 trade from the Houston Astros. He batted .266 over 136 games, smashing 22 home runs, driving in 73 runs, and stealing 25 bases while posting an .841 OPS. His efforts earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger Award. In the postseason, Tucker hit .259 with one homer across eight games.
Over his eight-year MLB career through 2025, Tucker has established himself as a versatile star, compiling a .273 average, 147 home runs, 490 RBIs, and 119 stolen bases in 769 games. A key part of the Astros’ 2022 World Series victory, he also claimed a Gold Glove that year, led the AL in RBIs in 2023, and topped the league in triples in 2020.