Prep football: Playoff picture comes into focus heading into final week

The final week of the regular season is upon us and here’s what we know — San Marin and San Rafael are both guaranteed to make the playoffs, as are Tomales and Branson in 8-Person. Marin Catholic is almost certainly going to make and be selected to the Open Division.

Redwood and Archie Williams would be in excellent shape if they can secure a sixth win this weekend. The Giants could still get in with five wins but could get left out if enough eligible teams below them pick up a sixth win. The Peregrine Falcons pretty much have to win to advance to the postseason.

Friday

Tomales (7-1, 4-0) at Potter Valley (3-3, 2-2), 6 p.m., Potter Valley

The Braves have already clinched at least a share of the North Central League III title but can claim it outright with a win against Potter Valley.

Tomales, which went 2-8 last season, still managed to take down Potter Valley 20-14. Should the Braves lose, they’ll end up tied for first place with the winner of the Elsie Allen-South Fork game.

Tomales has already a spot in the North Coast Section 8-Person playoffs and will learn its seeding on Sunday.

Windsor (6-3, 1-3 – #12 NCS) at Marin Catholic (4-5, 3-1 – #6 NCS), 6:30 p.m., Kentfield

MC secured its playoff eligibility two weeks ago with a victory over Rancho Cotate, meaning this game is largely about seeding. The Wildcats could be looking at another first-round NCS Open Division matchup against Cardinal Newman but will be well aware not to underestimate the Jaguars.

The Wildcats needed a late touchdown in the fourth quarter by Jarred Geissberger to rally for a 24-21 victory at Windsor last season. Geissberger missed last week’s 45-13 loss to Cardinal Newman after sustaining an injury against Rancho Cotate.

There is an extremely slim chance MC could miss out on the postseason but a staggering number of five-win teams — like 19 out of 22 or so — would all need to win to push MC out.

San Marin (7-2, 2-2 – #8) at Rancho Cotate (5-4, 1-3 – #19), 7 p.m., Rohnert Park

This game will also just impact seeding for the Mustangs, but considering where San Marin currently sits, that could be critical.

If the Mustangs remain at No. 8, they’ll likely be pulled into a rematch of last year’s first-round game against No. 1 De La Salle. A move up to No. 7 would see San Marin play No. 2 Pittsburg, which would still be an incredibly tough assignment. A move down to No. 9 could see San Marin be the No. 1 seed in Division I and perhaps be primed for a longer postseason run.

San Marin sat in this exact spot last season and pulled out a 17-16 victory against Rancho Cotate to remain in eighth. The Mustangs needed a blocked extra point by Ryan Houlahan in the final seconds to prevent the Cougars from forcing overtime.

Interestingly, the No. 9 and 10 teams in the MaxPreps rankings – San Ramon Valley and Monte Vista, respectively – play each other on Friday night to end the regular season and that result could impact San Marin’s fate.

Tam (2-7, 2-3 – #55) at Napa (3-6, 1-4 – #65), 7 p.m., Napa

The Red-Tailed Hawks could earn playoff eligibility with a third league win and their ranking would put them right on the fringe of making the 56-team field. However, the new NCS guidelines that went into effect for this season with teams being invited based on win-total tiers means Tam has no shot of making the field.

Even with a third win, Tam would sit behind every four-, five-, and six-win team with eligibility plus any three-win team with a higher ranking – if such a team exists.

Tam evened its league record with a 26-14 victory against Napa last season and did make the postseason as a three-win team last season under the old format – losing 28-20 against Maria Carrillo in the first round of the D-V playoffs.

Archie Williams (5-4, 3-2 – #77) at Piner (2-7, 2-3 – #89), 7 p.m., Santa Rosa

The Peregrine Falcons have a ton at stake despite already being eligible for the postseason. Their ranking has them just on the outside looking in with the current projections but more teams could gain a fifth win and push the Peregrine Falcons further down the list.

Archie Williams’ best bet to make it into the postseason is to get that sixth win, move up a tier, and jump into the field over any five-win team in the section.

The Peregrine Falcons should be favored to secure that win against the Prospectors, who started the season 1-7 before earning a 42-21 victory against Novato last week.

Archie Williams lost 42-14 against Piner last season but the Prospectors had a much better team then and finished second place in league.

Saturday

Stuart Hall (9-0, 4-0) at Branson (5-4, 3-1), 1 p.m., Ross

The Bulls made it to the final week of the season and could still claim a share of the North Central League II title with a win against Stuart Hall.

Branson and Stuart Hall have been battling for league and section titles for years with the Bulls winning three of the past four NCS D-I titles, beating the Knights on all three occasions. Stuart Hall has made four consecutive finals, also losing to South Fork in 2023.

Branson lost the regular-season meeting 40-34 last season but bounced back to win the section final by a 40-24 score line. Current Branson QB Colby Buxton, then a running back, ran 26 times for 138 yards and two scores in the title game adding 38 more yards and another score on two receptions.

Branson is eligible for the postseason and should make it into the NCS playoffs.

San Rafael (6-3, 4-1 – #50) at Terra Linda (2-7, 2-3 – #93), 2 p.m., Terra Linda

The crosstown rivals have split the past four Bell Games but the Trojans have won the past two meetings by a combined 12 points. Last year the Trojans got big games from then-senior QB Joshua Milani and then-senior WR Matteo Pattani to beat the Bulldogs 34-29 and deny them an opportunity to make the NCS playoffs in the process.

No such stakes exist for San Rafael this season. With six wins, the Bulldogs are comfortably inside the 56-team field on both win-total and MaxPreps-ranking metrics.

Still though, the Bulldogs will be highly motivated to snap TL’s two-game win streak in the series. San Rafael won the Bell Game in 2021 and 2022 – snapping an 18-game win streak for TL with a 43-6 win in 2021.

American Canyon (8-1, 5-0 – #15) at Redwood (5-4, 3-2 – #43), 2 p.m., Larkspur

Although the Wolves and Giants have only been in the same league for two seasons now, a healthy rival is developing between the two programs.

The Giants won last year’s regular-season finale 21-6 then used the momentum from that game to make a run to the NCS D-IV title game – where American Canyon was waiting for them.

Redwood’s first appearance in a section final ended with a 35-28 defeat against the Wolves. The Giants scored 21 consecutive points to take a 21-7 lead late in the second quarter but the Wolves returned the ensuing kickoff 100 yards for a backbreaking touchdown just before the half.

That huge momentum play began a run of 28 consecutive points for the Wolves as they went on to win both the NCS D-IV title and the State 5-A title.

Redwood had already secured their postseason spot before last year’s game against American Canyon. The Giants are in reasonably good shape this season under the new format and would be guaranteed a spot with a victory. A loss would leave the Giants vulnerable to being left out of the postseason.

There are 23 Tier-6 teams –  i.e. five-win teams or eligible super league teams like MC – heading into the final week. There are 19 available spots for them – a number that could go down as many of them will win their final game and move into Tier 5.

Redwood’s ranking has them slotted as the 14th of the 23 teams, meaning six teams below them would need to win to push Redwood out with a loss. Casa Grande, currently on four wins and not yet eligible, also looms as a threat and would move in front of Redwood based on ranking if they are both in Tier 6.

Justin-Siena (0-9 – #95) at Novato (3-6 – #86), 2 p.m., Novato

The Hornets and Braves are both eliminated from playoff contention going into the final game. Novato could still finish the season on a high note and avenge a 18-13 loss in last year’s finale against a former MCAL foe.

The Braves have been decimated by injuries most of the season, forfeiting games against American Canyon and Casa Grande due to a lack of healthy players. Justin-Siena has played in each of the past two weeks, getting shut out 45-0 by Redwood then getting blown out 42-10 by Napa.