Patriots Have Shocking Super Bowl Odds After Week 9 Vs. Falcons

The New England Patriots’ Week 9 win vs. the Atlanta Falcons wasn’t the prettiest, but the bottom line is that head coach Mike Vrabel and company have now won six in a row.

They’re tied with the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts for the best record in the NFL and appear destined to snap a four-year playoff drought.

But are Drake Maye and the Patriots (7-2) Super Bowl contenders too?

According to The Athletic’s 2025 NFL Playoff Simulator, New England has the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl among AFC teams at 8% as of Monday morning.

The only AFC squads with a (slightly) better chance than the Patriots are the Colts and Buffalo Bills, who both are at 9%.

Buffalo, Indianapolis and New England all have barely longer odds than the Los Angeles Rams (13%) and Philadelphia Eagles (10%), while the Green Bay Packers are at 9% as well.

The model shows the Patriots with a 97% chance of making the postseason, 60% of winning the AFC East and 28% chance of earning a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Per The Athletic, the simulator estimates odds by “randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often each team makes the playoffs, gets the No. 1 seed, the No. 1 draft pick and so on.”

Furthermore, the model estimates “each team’s probability of winning each remaining game using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data, including team records, roster changes, weather, game location and more advanced measures like expected points added and success rate.”

New England faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) on the road on Sunday in Week 10.