Statistical Preview: Raith Rovers v Greenock Morton

Fresh from a 2-0 win over in-form Partick Thistle last weekend, Raith Rovers will attempt to maintain their momentum at Stark’s Park, where they play host to a Greenock Morton side smarting after a 4-0 loss to St Johnstone.

Last week’s win lifted Raith to 5th in the league on 17 points, six clear of the Inverclyde outfit, who are languishing in 8th.

Greenock Morton’s Form Guide

Using the Raith Rovers v Greenock Morton Match Centre on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Ton are a side struggling for victories, and with defeats in each of their last two, they are not trending in the right direction.

4-0 Loss vs St Johnstone (H) – Championship

2-1 Loss vs Ayr United (A) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

2-1 Win vs Airdrie (A) – Championship

1-1 Draw vs Ross County (H) – Championship

Greenock Morton’s Recent League Matches:

Greenock Morton vs St Johnstone

Morton were the victims of a resurgent performance from St Johnstone last weekend, as they were swept away 4-0 at Cappielow by the Perth side. Despite the lop-sided nature of the scoreline, Dougie Imrie’s side were the victims of a clinical performance from the Championship leaders, who scored their goals from just 1.52 xG.

While Saints were deadly in front of goal, Morton were toothless. They managed only three shots across the match as a whole, generating just 0.12 and failing to land a single shot on target. Cammy Ballantyne had two of their three efforts from right back.

Morton had 59% of the ball, compared to a season average of 50.1%. It was during the opening 30 minutes, when they had the most possession (67% in the first quarter of an hour followed by 78% in the second 15 minutes), that they conceded three of the four goals. This was also when their passing accuracy was highest (84% and 82%), but it was passive. For example, they had only 0.4 attacks per minute in the first quarter of an hour – their lowest figure until the closing stages.

In converting just 3.7% of their positional attacks into shots, they were well below their season average of 20.7%, showing that Saints were easily able to manage them. Indeed, the Ton played 82 backwards passes compared to a season average of 60.4 as they were muzzled by their opponents.

Ayr United vs Greenock Morton

Morton’s 2-1 Somerset Park loss to Ayr United painted an accurate picture of a match in which they were competitive, but ultimately lacked the type of attacking quality capable of seriously unsettling their hosts.

Over the course of the game, in which they deployed a 4-4-2 for the second time this season, the Greenock side mustered only five shots, generating 0.76 xG. This was marginally below their season average of 0.86, but what was notable was the quality of those efforts. Ton sought to work their way into good scoring positions before shooting. Their average shot distance was just 13.6 metres, while they did not have a single attempt from outside the box.

Much of their threat came down the wings, exploiting gaps behind Ayr’s wing backs in a 3-4-3 formation. As much as 70% of their xG came from those areas, where there was a slight bias to go down the right, even if the better chances came from the opposite side.

Defensively, Morton allowed Ayr 15 efforts, six on target, and an xG against of 1.92 – both figures notably above their season-long averages (12.23 shots and 1.52 xGA). The opening goal, conceded on the stroke of half time, rocked them. During the first 15 minutes of the second half, they had no attacks and posted a PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 33, indicating a reluctance to press.

In the closing stages of the game, they abandoned their short passing game, which had been increasingly pronounced until Ayr scored for a second time and opted for a more direct approach. The Honest Men dealt with this threat comfortably, though.

Greenock Morton’s One to Watch:

James Storer: On loan from Wolves, Morton appear to have found themselves a gem of a goalkeeper in the form of the 21-year-old. While Storer has conceded 14 goals, he has saved a league-high 44 shots, giving him a save percentage of 75.9%. Storer’s displays have contributed to Morton conceding less goals than their xGA figure suggests they could have done, having conceded 14 from 18.22 xGA.

Final Thoughts:

With just 11.2 xG from 12 games and the highest xGA, Morton are a team that are vulnerable and can be attacked.

While the Inverclyde side have recently been putting a focus on possession in recent weeks, having more of the ball than their opponents in six of their last seven league matches, that has not resulted in a great deal of danger for their opponents. A reticence to take shots means that their threat from range is limited. Instead, they are liable to be most threatening from crosses – with 28 headed efforts. 

Cammy Ballantyne, not even their regular right back, has carried much of their threat in each of the last two games and will have to be closely policed. Two of his three shots have come from corners, which will be a particular source of danger.

Equally, Rovers will hope to exploit Morton’s defensive weaknesses from set pieces. One weakness of goalkeeper Storer is that he does not command his box well, and with Raith winning 5.43 corners per game, there will be chances to put him under pressure.

From general play, Barry Robson’s side should also get opportunities. Morton are conceding 12.04 shots per game, which is well above the league average of 12.04. Don’t discount some of those being gift wrapped, too; in each of Morton’s last two games, they have made at least three errors that have led directly to a shot.

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