NBA Writer: Celtics Led By ‘Very Diminished Group’ This Season

The Boston Celtics have their first preseason game on Wednesday against the Memphis Grizzlies and open their regular season vs. the Philadelphia 76ers on Oct. 22.

ESPN’s Neil Paine analyzed the NBA teams that “gained or lost the most roster value this offseason” on Thursday and unsurprisingly, the Celtics were at the bottom of the list.

In Paine’s analysis, he “projected how a player’s addition (or absence) could shift a team’s standings by setting a baseline of the player’s expected performance using their established level of Estimated RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement (WAR), then identifying the five teams identifying the five teams that gained — and the five teams that lost — the most roster value.”

Notably, Paine also “noted how much value was lost to presumed season-ending injuries,” — including Jayson Tatum — though he didn’t “factor that into the calculations for teams that made either list.”

When Paine made the calculations, Boston was projected to have added 4.9 WAR over the offseason, but also lost -16.5, meaning a total loss of -11.6 WAR.

The Celtics’ “top losses” were centers Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet, as well as guard Jrue Holiday, plus Tatum, who’s expected to miss most of the season due to his Achilles injury. Their “top additions” were Anfernee Simons, Chris Boucher and Josh Minnot.

“After winning the 2024 NBA championship and spending most of last season on the very short list of title front-runners, it’s shaping up to be a very different year in Boston. For one, regular-season WAR leader Tatum suffered a torn Achilles in May — and while he isn’t ruling out a return from what was originally deemed a season-erasing injury, he would likely miss the majority of the regular season even if he did manage to come back early,” Paine wrote. “Add in the fact that Boston said goodbye to many of the core contributors from its title run — Porziņģis, Holiday and Horford — plus highly effective role player Kornet, who signed with the Spurs in July, and the Celtics are looking at a very diminished group leading the way in 2025-26.”

Boston is expected to be led by the trio of Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard this season.