Three Storylines To Watch In Red Sox Series Vs. Rays

The Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday. The Rays haven’t been officially eliminated from the postseason yet, but they sit eight games back with nine games to play, so they would need a miracle at this point.

The miracle would start by sweeping the Red Sox, but even then, they would need help from other teams to get in. Regardless of their playoff status, they’ll be fighting to spoil their division rivals’ season.

The Red Sox are 8-2 against Tampa this season, but the two teams haven’t met since July, when Boston swept a four-game series. Ceddanne Rafaela hit a walk-off home run in the second game of the series — one of the most memorable moments of the season. With the Red Sox fighting to hang on to the final American League Wild Card spot, the final series of the season between the two is of heightened importance.

A Parade Of Southpaws

Starting pitching hasn’t been strong for the Red Sox in September. The rotation owns a 5.01 ERA and is averaging just 4 2/3 innings per start in the month. How the rotation performs will play a huge factor in the series, and the Red Sox are set up well.

Garrett Crochet, Kyle Harrison and Connelly Early are scheduled to start for Boston. All three are left-handed, which could present the Red Sox with an advantage. Players on the Rays’ active roster have a combined 83 wRC+ against lefties. Their six percent walk rate is the worst in baseball.

Of active players, only Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Carson Williams, and Tristan Gray have a wRC+ over the league average against lefties. If Red Sox pitchers can navigate through those at-bats, the Rays will have a hard time scoring runs. The bullpen is full of lefties as well. Payton Tolle is likely unavailable for a few days after throwing three innings on Thursday, but Chris Murphy, Steven Matz and Justin Wilson are all options out of the pen before Aroldis Chapman.

Forget About The Curveball Fastball

While the Red Sox might have an advantage in terms of handedness, the Rays have a counter. Crochet and Harrison both frequently use four-seam fastballs. According to FanGraphs, on a per 100 pitch basis, only the Arizona Diamondbacks have hit four-seams better than the Rays. Crochet has multiple weapons to use, but Harrison’s secondary pitches remain a question. If the lefty can’t find the zone with his other pitches, he could make an early exit from the game.

Hit It Forwards

Red Sox manager Alex Cora said that when the offense is at its best, they aren’t striking out. Neither of the Rays’ first two scheduled starters, Drew Rasmussen and Adrian Houser, is a strikeout artist, but their scheduled starter for Sunday punches out hitters at a high rate. The bullpen is a different story, though.

Griffin Jax, Garrett Cleavinger, Edwin Uceta and Bryan Baker are all likely to make appearances in the series, and they all have strikeout rates over 30%. If the Red Sox can’t find a way to put the ball in play, they’ll continue to strand runners on base and post low totals. The Rays bullpen owns the fourth-best ERA in baseball in September. Boston will have to find a way to score runs late in games to take the series.