Why NFL Analyst Predicts Patriots Losing Season Opener To Raiders

Hype is building around the New England Patriots in 2025, and they’re favored to start the Mike Vrabel era with a home victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. One analyst made the case for the AFC West opponents spoiling the moment.

The Athletic’s KC Joyner highlighted the Raiders as a top Week 1 upset pick. Las Vegas is a 2.5-point underdog, but Joyner likes the road team to prevail behind a new head coach, quarterback and some explosive skill-position talent.

“There is a lot to like about the Raiders’ offensive setup,” Joyner wrote. “Las Vegas has arguably the best pass-catching tight end in the NFL (Brock Bowers) and a running back who could be the next Barry Sanders (Ashton Jeanty). Quarterback Geno Smith is familiar with Pete Carroll’s system and could benefit from being in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. This rush defense matchup is highly favorable and could be the first step in Jeanty posting league-leading rushing numbers in the first third of the season.”

Joyner is impressed by TreVeyeon Henderson, but the analyst is worried that the rookie running back will cede too many touches to Rhamondre Stevenson. That’s a problem for Joyner, who called Stevenson “one of the least productive backs on a per-touch basis the past two seasons.”

Like the Patriots, the Raiders changed coaches after a 4-13 campaign. They replaced Antonio Pierce with Pete Carroll, a former Super Bowl champion who spent 14 seasons with the Seattle Seahawks following three years in New England.

Each team wants to start a new regime on the right note. Oddsmakers give the Patriots a slight edge on the strength of home-field advantage, and ESPN Analytics projects a 51.5 percent win probability.

A Raiders win wouldn’t constitute a massive upset, especially if star cornerback Christian Gonzalez doesn’t suit up for the Patriots. Yet it’d mark a disappointing start for Vrabel.